Latest news with #M.Mohapatra
The Hindu
27-05-2025
- Climate
- The Hindu
IMD retains ‘above normal' rainfall outlook for monsoon
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its April forecast for 'above normal' rainfall from June-September. It expects the country to see about 92 cm rainfall (106% of the long period average) during this southwest monsoon season, slightly higher than the 91.3 cm (105% of the average) rainfall that it had forecast in April. Except the northeast and northwestern parts of the country, most of India will receive 'above normal' rainfall. In June alone, the country is likely to receive at least 8% more than its average quota of 16.7 cm. The monsoon came early this year, reaching Kerala on May 24, a week ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. Not since the monsoon of 2009 has its arrival been this early. Moreover, the monsoon also advanced to Mumbai early, breaking a 35-year old record by reaching the city on May 26, two weeks ahead of the norm. The seasonal rains also advanced faster than usual to many parts of Karnataka, Goa, and central Maharashtra. At a press conference on Tuesday (May 27, 2025), IMD officials said that a confluence of factors had played a role in 'advancing the monsoon', including a pre-cyclonic circulation and optimal temperatures in the Tibetan plateau, along with a couple of other global factors. Slowdown likely While more rain is expected for the next four days in parts of Odisha and central India, the monsoon 'wouldn't continue to speed' indefinitely, according to officials. 'We cannot say that the monsoon will continue to speed towards Delhi and northern India. There will be a slowdown,' said IMD Director General M. Mohapatra. The normal date for the monsoon's arrival in Delhi is the last week of June. Even if the rains do not arrive early, however, the overall strong monsoon means that heatwaves are unlikely to ravage the capital region in June, Mr. Mohapatra added. Advisories from the Maharashtra government have also warned farmers to wait for a few days before commencing sowing. A swathe of central India, Odisha, and parts of Rajasthan — called the 'core zone', as its agriculture is almost entirely rain-fed — is also likely to receive 6% more rain than normal. No El Nino The main factor favouring a good monsoon is the absence of an El Nino, which is associated with a warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is also associated with weak monsoon rainfall about 60% of the years when it is in effect. If the IMD's forecast proves accurate, this would be the second sucessive year of 'above normal' monsoon rainfall. Last year, India received 8% more than the historical average from June to September. While all IMD forecasts have a 4% margin of error, its prediction for this year's southwest monsoon could mean enough water for the kharif crop, and improve storage in the country's reservoirs. However, it can also mean episodes of intense rain and translate to devastating floods in parts of the country.
The Hindu
26-05-2025
- Climate
- The Hindu
IMD adopts Bharat Forecast System model for panchayat-level rain forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (May 26, 2025) adopted the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), which promises more fine-tuned and accurate rain forecasts down to the panchayat level. The improvements will largely be visible in the 'short- and medium-term' forecasts (three- and seven-day lead times) issued by the IMD but not in the long-range forecasts, usually given a month in advance. Also read: Rain updates on May 26, 2025 The BFS has been tested since 2002 and has shown 'notable improvements' in giving advance warning of heavy rainfall events, M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) said. The BFS was developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), part of the MoES. IMD is also an MoES organisation. The improvement in the forecasts is due to the IITM significantly improving the existing weather forecast models as well as harnessing more powerful computing capabilities. For analysis, the current weather forecast models cut up the globe into gridded squares of 12-km sides; the newer BFS model breaks it down into 6-km sides – leading to a four-fold improvement. 'India is the only country that will now provide operational weather forecasts at a 6 km by 6 km resolution. Until now we have been able to give block-level forecasts five days ahead; now we can give up to the level of a panchayat, or a few villages. This is useful because there can be important weather variations even within a block,' said M. Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD. Science Minister Jitendra Singh said: 'The efforts are Indian, the technology is Indian, and the beneficiaries are Indian. This is true Atmanirbharta. Moreover, this system will also benefit other tropical regions globally, which face the most complex and variable weather challenges.' Another major change, said Mr. Ravichandran, was using a new 'grid structure'. Earlier, weather models would break the globe into equal-sized grids. 'Now we use a grid-structure called the triangular-cubic octahedral (TCO). This generates more grids, and therefore higher resolution, over the tropical regions than the poles. As weather here is more volatile, this is more important for our forecast purposes,' he said. However, the new system would not yet be able to significantly improve forecasts of phenomenon such as sudden, severe thunderstorms. 'We have different models for that. We are in the process of installing 34 Doppler Weather Radars, in the coming year, which will add to the existing 53,' Mr. Mohapatra added. The improved forecasting system is made possible with high performance computing systems 'Arka' and 'Arunika' located at the IITM, Pune and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Delhi. The IITM system is equipped with a capacity of 11.77 Peta FLOPS and 33 petabytes of storage, while the NCMRWF facility features 8.24 Peta FLOPS with 24 petabytes of storage. Additionally, there is a dedicated standalone system for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning applications with a capacity of 1.9 Peta FLOPS. A peta-flop is one quadrillion floating-point operations per second.
Time of India
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Delhi's Heat Index Shoots Up: IMD Warns of Intensifying Heatwave Threats
New Delhi: The capital is engulfed in a blistering heatwave that feels like an unrelenting furnace, where the very air seems to shimmer with heat. Tuesday saw temperatures soar to a sweltering 40.8°C, but the true torment lies in the soaring heat index — a brutal combination of temperature and humidity that leaves the city feeling like a pressure cooker. The rising heat is more than just a discomfort — it's a warning sign of an intensifying crisis, as the India Meteorological Department alerts the public to the growing severity and persistence of heatwaves this summer. The city, already grappling with urban heat islands, faces a season that threatens to push its limits, challenging both health and infrastructure. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the capital recorded a hot and humid day, with a maximum temperature touching 40.8 degrees Celsius (°C), as a combination of clear skies and increased moisture led to uncomfortable weather conditions. The oppressive weather comes as the India Meteorological Department issues fresh warnings on the severity and persistence of heatwaves expected this summer. Speaking at ETHealthworld's webinar on "Unpacking Delhi's Deadly Heatwave and Public Health Emergency," Dr M. Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, underscored the unusual patterns and growing intensity of heatwaves across the country. 'This year, we predicted that there will be a higher than normal number of heatwave days,' he said. 'Usually, there are about 7 to 10 days of heatwaves in different parts of India each year, but this year, we expect an increase of about 6 to 10 additional days.' While the frequency may be slightly less compared to last year, Dr. Mohapatra emphasized that heat will still be intense and widespread. So far, March and April have seen severe heatwave conditions in western India, especially Gujarat and Rajasthan, along with parts of Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, and Jammu. Eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh have also reported isolated heatwave episodes. Central India, particularly Vidarbha and southern Madhya Pradesh, may experience more such events in late May. 'The heatwave is one of the severe weather hazards, which affects not only human lives and property, but also has wide and adverse impacts on various sectors of society,' he said, highlighting risks to agriculture, power supply, water availability, and public health. Dr. Mohapatra also pointed out that rising urbanization is intensifying the urban heat island effect, where central parts of cities like Delhi witness higher temperatures due to concrete structures, dense populations, and less green cover. 'All these are contributing to increased vulnerability of individuals and urban systems,' he said. In response, IMD has enhanced its early warning services, especially for urban centers like Delhi. The department now issues district-specific forecasts for the city's seven districts instead of a general forecast, allowing for better preparedness and targeted advisories. Importantly, the IMD has begun incorporating relative humidity and temperature-humidity indices in its forecasts to better assess real-world discomfort and risk levels. With every 1°C rise in temperature, atmospheric humidity can increase by around 7 per cent, worsening conditions for the population. Another concern flagged by Dr. Mohapatra is the combination of heatwaves with high night-time temperatures—known as warm nights—which prevent the human body from recovering from daytime heat exposure and significantly increase health risks, especially for the elderly and those with comorbidities. To offer a more comprehensive picture, IMD also overlays air quality data (PM2.5 and PM10 levels) with heatwave alerts in cities like Delhi. 'This enables a composite assessment by the public and relevant agencies to take timely action,' said Dr. Mohapatra. He added that persistence is key: a heatwave lasting just a couple of days might not be disastrous, but if it continues for four or five days, especially in densely populated or vulnerable areas, it can lead to high mortality and morbidity. As India heads into the peak of summer, weather experts are urging citizens and authorities alike to take precautionary steps. With climate change, urban expansion, and increasing atmospheric moisture intensifying the impact of heatwaves, this summer may be yet another reminder of how urgent climate resilience measures have become
