Ireland will have to commit substantial funds to arms procurement whether it approves or not

Irish Times

14 hours ago

All they talk about in Brussels these days is defence. And with a sense of urgency and common political will that is a product of
real fear that the EU itself is existentially threatened
. A fear that the threats from
Russia to Ukraine
– regarded, as one senior
European Commission
official put it, as a 'de facto member state' – and
Vladimir Putin
's wider ambitions against former Soviet states now part of the union are serious. And that the
US
can no longer be relied on for military support or even nuclear deterrence.
The talk is all of meeting new Nato targets of raising defence spending to between three and five per cent of GDP. Russia, member states are warned, has been massively expanding its military-industrial production capacity with an estimated spending in 2024 of 40 per cent of the federal budget and up to 9 per cent of its GDP (up from 6 per cent in 2023) on defence, a commitment only possible in an autocratic state impervious to public sentiment. Ireland, despite its new commitment to bolster its army, remains
the poorest performer in the EU class
at 0.5 per cent this year.
Member states' defence spending has grown by more than 31 per cent since 2021, reaching 1.9 per cent of the EU's combined GDP or €326bn in
2024, almost double the amount spent in 2021. Not enough, however; now a target of €800 billion in the next few years is being discussed.
A measure of how seriously the debate is being taken has been the union's willingness with unprecedented speed to raise its sacrosanct fiscal rules,
allowing member states to break debt limits to expand their military spending
.
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The thrust is now being driven by the EU White Paper on Defence Preparedness 2025, published recently. It was the subject of a well-attended debate this week in the Institute for International and European Affairs, which turned inevitably to the issue of Ireland's own national preparedness and its role next year in steering the EU presidency discussions.
Centre stage will be the roll-out of the white paper proposals to revitalise states' military capacity and transform national defence industries to break reliance on foreign, notably US, imported weapons. A new defence financing initiative, Safe, will see the
European Investment Bank
raise €150 billion to lend to the private sector on condition 65 per cent of loans are for European-produced weapons. Ireland is not planning to dip into the fund, but Minister of State for Defence
Thomas Byrne
told the meeting that, in the spirit of 'principles-based pragmatism', we might yet do so.
Ireland will also have charge of brokering a deal on the next seven-year budget (the Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFF). The process always severely stretches member-state solidarity and will particularly test them this time, with a huge increase in collective defence spending being proposed. That, at a time when all are cash-strapped, will require a massive breach of the one per cent of EU GDP budget spending ceiling, or as Prof Brigid Laffan warned, 'tough trade-offs' on long-standing policy areas. Like agriculture.
Ireland cannot stand on the sidelines. It will necessarily have to commit substantial funds to arms procurement as a net contributor to the MFF, like all others, whether or not it approves.
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Parlous state of Defence Forces once again laid bare
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The EU white paper bears a remarkable resemblance in its scope and thrust to the paper produced in Ireland in 2022 by the Commission on the
Defence Forces
and which prompted our own commitment to major upgrading of the Defence Forces. The white paper, the EU Commission's senior defence official, Guilaume de la Brosse, insists, is not about redefining EU defence policy 'but about the specificities of member states, serving national agendas', and both starting a discussion about preparedness and capabilities and pointing to a way in which the needs may be addressed more efficiently, collectively and individually. The white paper projects are all 'voluntary'.
Like the Irish commission's silence on neutrality's merits, it is not saying European collective defence must take a particular form, but that if you want a capability to deter aggression then this is how to do it – and it is best done collectively, ensuring interoperability and as little duplication as possible.
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Poll shows Ireland's attachment to neutrality is strong but nuanced
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Critical to getting both imperatives through will be important changes in the nature of defence discussions throughout the EU – not least in Ireland, where the debate has largely been confined to political and policy circles. Both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste have engaged strongly, echoing common EU-wide concerns, but public opinion remains largely indifferent, albeit clinging to vague, often contradictory notions of 'neutrality'. There is often
an unwillingness to acknowledge the need to upgrade our defensive capacity or even a need for it.
A fundamental challenge remains a public unwillingness to perceive real new vulnerabilities or threats to ourselves – like to our vital undersea cable networks or to cyber attacks, or threats to the territorial integrity of our European partners – as urgent and requiring radical action. Although sympathetic to their plight, and generously receptive of refugees, Irish voters have yet to recognise that their problem is our problem, a real threat to our union, and to develop a real sense of obligation to fellow members of the union arising from our membership of this huge 'peace project'.
From a narrow national perspective, as Minister Byrne acknowledged, 'working together is the only way forward'.
This debate urgently needs to expand beyond Dáil Éireann's narrow confines.