Sky supremacy: Why Israel owns Iran's skies-Russia still can't crack Ukraine's

Time of India

6 hours ago

Firefighters work to extinguish a blaze after a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP photo)
In the fourth day of open war between Israel and Iran, both countries are reeling from mutual missile attacks, a mounting civilian toll, and a grim sense that the conflict has only just begun.
Israeli jets struck Iranian military, nuclear, and command infrastructure as far east as Mashhad. Iran retaliated by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israeli cities, killing more than two dozen civilians and injuring hundreds.
Yet despite the chaos, one strategic truth has crystallized: Israel now owns Iran's skies. Israeli aircraft are flying unhindered over Iran's capital, dropping bombs from within Iranian territory-something that the Russian Air Force has conspicuously failed to accomplish in Ukraine after more than three years of war.
The contrast is not just tactical; it's philosophical.
The current war began Friday with a surprise Israeli strike that destroyed much of Iran's top military command, set back its nuclear program, and cratered air defense installations across western Iran. Since then, Israeli air power has dismantled nearly a third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers and taken out key leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Meanwhile, Iranian salvos continue to rain down on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Petah Tikva, with civilian deaths rising by the hour.
The destruction on both sides is immense. But Israel, unlike Russia, has secured the rarest-and arguably most decisive-military advantage in modern warfare: unchallenged control of enemy airspace.
Why air superiority matters
The Israeli campaign, as devastating as it is, also underscores a broader lesson about 21st-century warfighting: whoever controls the skies controls the tempo, scale, and eventual outcome of the fight.
'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,' retired US Air Force Lt Gen David Deptula told the Wall Street Journal. 'In the case of Russia-Ukraine war, you see what happens when neither side can achieve air superiority: stalemate and devolution to attrition-based warfare. In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran.
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That freedom has translated into a relentless bombing campaign using a blend of fifth-generation stealth F-35s-custom-modified by Israel-and older, more expendable F-15s and F-16s once Iran's air defenses were degraded. Now, Israel is relying more on cheap, plentiful guided bombs like the JDAM and Spice kits instead of expensive long-range missiles. The effect: more strikes, lower cost, and more devastation.
Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, Chief of Staff of the Israeli military, described the offensive with cold precision. 'IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometers away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision,' he said.
What Russia couldn't-and can't-do
The success stands in stark contrast to Russia's ongoing frustrations in Ukraine. Despite possessing one of the largest air forces in the world, Russia has failed to establish air dominance over its neighbor.
Its jets still do not operate freely over Kyiv or other major Ukrainian cities. Instead, the war has devolved into trench fighting, artillery duels, and long-range missile attacks-precisely the scenario Israeli planners worked to avoid.
Why the difference?
As per the WSJ report, one reason is qualitative. 'The asymmetry in capability between Israel's air force and Russia's is vast and can be easily observed,' Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and an expert on Russian and Ukrainian militaries, told the WSJ.
Israeli pilots fly with tighter integration into cyber and intelligence operations. Their training emphasizes maneuver, autonomy, and real-time decision-making.
Russian pilots, by contrast, fly what retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer calls 'flying artillery.'
'All the Russians have is pilots,' Stringer said. 'They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it.'
Iran's fatal miscalculation
Israel's air war has benefited from something else: Iran's glaring strategic blind spots.
Over decades, Tehran invested in missile deterrence-not air defense. And when the attacks began, Iran's air defense system-an ad-hoc mix of S-300s, Chinese knockoffs, and home-built batteries-was overwhelmed.
'Iran never relied on air defenses alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,' said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But deterrence failed.
Iran's strongest deterrent, Hezbollah, was crippled last year and physically cut off by Israel's destruction of the Syrian corridor. Israeli strikes on Syrian air-defense systems effectively opened a corridor-a 'superhighway'-for Israeli planes to reach Iranian airspace unopposed.
Unlike Ukraine, which used early US intelligence in 2022 to scatter and conceal its mobile air defenses, Iran was caught by surprise.
Israeli intelligence operatives and drones sabotaged key systems on the ground in the hours before the first wave of strikes. Simultaneously, Mossad assassinated top military leaders in their homes.
'What Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine,' Israeli analyst Michael Horowitz told the Journal. 'But it turned out that the Ukrainian society has a resilience and cannot be so easily penetrated-whereas when it comes to Iran, the regime is so unpopular that it's easy to find people there who will agree to work with Israel.'
The numbers game
For now, Israeli generals believe time is on their side. Iran's missile attacks continue, but with one-third of its launchers gone and Israeli jets flying freely, the odds are shifting.
'It's a numbers game, and it seems like Israel has the upper hand,' said retired US Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray. 'After all, the best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container, and not in the air while it's flying.'
Ray's comment reveals the brutal calculus behind air campaigns: preemptive destruction isn't just tactical-it's strategic, psychological, and political.
With Iran reeling and international pressure mounting, Israel may have redefined modern air warfare.
Not since the opening days of the Gulf War has a country so swiftly gained dominance over an adversary's skies. And as Russia grinds on in the mud of eastern Ukraine, Israel has flown past in the stratosphere-proving that supremacy in the air remains the shortest path to power on the ground.