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Economic Times
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Economic Times
Blind radar, blistering speed: How Israeli jets crippled Iran's air defence in 48 hours, something Russia couldn't do in 3 years
TIL Creatives Representative AI Image Within just 48 hours of launching its campaign, Israel claimed air superiority over western Iran—including the capital Tehran. Israeli jets now drop bombs from inside Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. This marks a major strategic gain, especially when compared to Russia's enduring failure to control Ukrainian skies after more than three years of control over Iranian airspace is not just about planes—it's about precision, coordination, and speed. It's what Russia hoped to achieve in Ukraine but could not. Russia's air force—one of the world's largest—has been unable to gain full air control over Ukraine since February 2022. Instead, the conflict devolved into slow, costly trench warfare. Israel's campaign against Iran has gone in the opposite direction.'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,' said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula. 'In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran.'The difference, experts say, lies in planning and execution. Israel's air force is smaller but far more agile, better integrated with intelligence and cyber capabilities, and equipped with modified fifth-generation F-35 jets. 'Over the past 24 hours, we completed an aerial route to Tehran and conducted an aerial breaching battle,' said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israeli Chief of General Staff. 'IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometres away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision.'With Iran's air defences largely disabled, older Israeli aircraft like the F-15 and F-16 have joined the fight. These now deploy short-range JDAM and Spice-guided bombs—cheap, widely available, and analysts agree that Iran's air defences were easier to defeat than Ukraine's. 'Israel achieved surprise and overmatch over Iran's air defences, which represented a much easier target set than Ukraine's,' said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment. 'The asymmetry in qualitative capability between Israel's air force and Russia is also vast.' Retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer points to culture and training. 'All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it,' he said. In contrast, Israel's military integrates cyber, air, and intelligence capabilities with tight cohesion. Unlike Ukraine, which was warned of an impending Russian invasion and dispersed its air-defence systems in early 2022, Iran was deceived. Israeli threats were timed around U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for 15 June. Instead, war began on the 13th. Covert Israeli operations destroyed Iranian air-defence nodes with short-range drones. Intelligence teams assassinated senior IRGC leaders. Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst, said, 'Basically, what Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine... but Iranian regime unpopularity made infiltration easier.' Despite maintaining air superiority, Israel continues to face ballistic missile attacks from Iran. Many of these have been intercepted, but some have reached Tel Aviv and other cities. The Israeli military confirmed it intercepted 'the vast majority of the missiles' while acknowledging 'a few impacts on buildings.'Israel's air defence system comprises several layers: Iron Dome: Designed to intercept short-range rockets, operational since 2011, with over 90% success rate. Arrow-2 and Arrow-3: Long-range interceptors targeting ballistic missiles even outside the atmosphere. Built with U.S. support. David's Sling: Targets medium-range threats. Built by Rafael and U.S. firm Raytheon. Iron Beam: A laser-based system still under development. Promising low-cost interception, but not yet operational. U.S. THAAD system: Deployed in Israel and used by the U.S. to intercept incoming Iranian missiles. Air-to-air defences: Israeli jets and helicopters have intercepted drones. Jordan's air force also downed projectiles entering its airspace. Iran relied on a fragmented mix of Russian S-300s, Chinese batteries, and local systems—none of which were adequately integrated. Crucially, Iran invested more in its missile capabilities and regional proxies than in defending its own skies. 'Iran never relied on air defences alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,' said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But that deterrence—primarily Hezbollah—was crippled last year and physically cut off from Iran. Syrian air-defence systems had already been bombed by Israel, effectively opening a corridor for Israeli jets into Iran. Tehran's underinvestment now appears to have been a costly next move is clear: prevent more missile strikes by targeting launchers on the ground. 'The best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container,' said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray. 'What the Israelis are doing is just steadily leveraging an advantage.'Civilian casualties continue to mount on both sides. But from a strategic standpoint, time now appears to be on Israel's unfolding air war is being closely watched. From Washington to New Delhi, defence planners are studying it in detail. As British Air Marshal Martin Sampson put it, 'From Israel's side, the campaign objective is to destroy and degrade—and Iran doesn't have that ability.'The Israel-Iran conflict, like the Ukraine war, offers hard truths about modern warfare. The biggest among them? The side that controls the skies, controls the war.
Time of India
5 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Sky supremacy: Why Israel owns Iran's skies-Russia still can't crack Ukraine's
Firefighters work to extinguish a blaze after a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP photo) In the fourth day of open war between Israel and Iran, both countries are reeling from mutual missile attacks, a mounting civilian toll, and a grim sense that the conflict has only just begun. Israeli jets struck Iranian military, nuclear, and command infrastructure as far east as Mashhad. Iran retaliated by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Israeli cities, killing more than two dozen civilians and injuring hundreds. Yet despite the chaos, one strategic truth has crystallized: Israel now owns Iran's skies. Israeli aircraft are flying unhindered over Iran's capital, dropping bombs from within Iranian territory-something that the Russian Air Force has conspicuously failed to accomplish in Ukraine after more than three years of war. The contrast is not just tactical; it's philosophical. The current war began Friday with a surprise Israeli strike that destroyed much of Iran's top military command, set back its nuclear program, and cratered air defense installations across western Iran. Since then, Israeli air power has dismantled nearly a third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers and taken out key leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Meanwhile, Iranian salvos continue to rain down on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Petah Tikva, with civilian deaths rising by the hour. The destruction on both sides is immense. But Israel, unlike Russia, has secured the rarest-and arguably most decisive-military advantage in modern warfare: unchallenged control of enemy airspace. Why air superiority matters The Israeli campaign, as devastating as it is, also underscores a broader lesson about 21st-century warfighting: whoever controls the skies controls the tempo, scale, and eventual outcome of the fight. 'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,' retired US Air Force Lt Gen David Deptula told the Wall Street Journal. 'In the case of Russia-Ukraine war, you see what happens when neither side can achieve air superiority: stalemate and devolution to attrition-based warfare. In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran. ' That freedom has translated into a relentless bombing campaign using a blend of fifth-generation stealth F-35s-custom-modified by Israel-and older, more expendable F-15s and F-16s once Iran's air defenses were degraded. Now, Israel is relying more on cheap, plentiful guided bombs like the JDAM and Spice kits instead of expensive long-range missiles. The effect: more strikes, lower cost, and more devastation. Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, Chief of Staff of the Israeli military, described the offensive with cold precision. 'IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometers away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision,' he said. What Russia couldn't-and can't-do The success stands in stark contrast to Russia's ongoing frustrations in Ukraine. Despite possessing one of the largest air forces in the world, Russia has failed to establish air dominance over its neighbor. Its jets still do not operate freely over Kyiv or other major Ukrainian cities. Instead, the war has devolved into trench fighting, artillery duels, and long-range missile attacks-precisely the scenario Israeli planners worked to avoid. Why the difference? As per the WSJ report, one reason is qualitative. 'The asymmetry in capability between Israel's air force and Russia's is vast and can be easily observed,' Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and an expert on Russian and Ukrainian militaries, told the WSJ. Israeli pilots fly with tighter integration into cyber and intelligence operations. Their training emphasizes maneuver, autonomy, and real-time decision-making. Russian pilots, by contrast, fly what retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer calls 'flying artillery.' 'All the Russians have is pilots,' Stringer said. 'They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it.' Iran's fatal miscalculation Israel's air war has benefited from something else: Iran's glaring strategic blind spots. Over decades, Tehran invested in missile deterrence-not air defense. And when the attacks began, Iran's air defense system-an ad-hoc mix of S-300s, Chinese knockoffs, and home-built batteries-was overwhelmed. 'Iran never relied on air defenses alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,' said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But deterrence failed. Iran's strongest deterrent, Hezbollah, was crippled last year and physically cut off by Israel's destruction of the Syrian corridor. Israeli strikes on Syrian air-defense systems effectively opened a corridor-a 'superhighway'-for Israeli planes to reach Iranian airspace unopposed. Unlike Ukraine, which used early US intelligence in 2022 to scatter and conceal its mobile air defenses, Iran was caught by surprise. Israeli intelligence operatives and drones sabotaged key systems on the ground in the hours before the first wave of strikes. Simultaneously, Mossad assassinated top military leaders in their homes. 'What Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine,' Israeli analyst Michael Horowitz told the Journal. 'But it turned out that the Ukrainian society has a resilience and cannot be so easily penetrated-whereas when it comes to Iran, the regime is so unpopular that it's easy to find people there who will agree to work with Israel.' The numbers game For now, Israeli generals believe time is on their side. Iran's missile attacks continue, but with one-third of its launchers gone and Israeli jets flying freely, the odds are shifting. 'It's a numbers game, and it seems like Israel has the upper hand,' said retired US Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray. 'After all, the best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container, and not in the air while it's flying.' Ray's comment reveals the brutal calculus behind air campaigns: preemptive destruction isn't just tactical-it's strategic, psychological, and political. With Iran reeling and international pressure mounting, Israel may have redefined modern air warfare. Not since the opening days of the Gulf War has a country so swiftly gained dominance over an adversary's skies. And as Russia grinds on in the mud of eastern Ukraine, Israel has flown past in the stratosphere-proving that supremacy in the air remains the shortest path to power on the ground.
Time of India
8 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Blind radar, blistering speed: How Israeli jets crippled Iran's air defence in 48 hours, something Russia couldn't do in 3 years
Within just 48 hours of launching its campaign, Israel claimed air superiority over western Iran—including the capital Tehran. Israeli jets now drop bombs from inside Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. This marks a major strategic gain, especially when compared to Russia's enduring failure to control Ukrainian skies after more than three years of war. Israel's control over Iranian airspace is not just about planes—it's about precision, coordination, and speed. It's what Russia hoped to achieve in Ukraine but could not. Why Russia failed where Israel has succeeded Russia's air force—one of the world's largest—has been unable to gain full air control over Ukraine since February 2022. Instead, the conflict devolved into slow, costly trench warfare. Israel's campaign against Iran has gone in the opposite direction. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Vietnam (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search Ads Search Now Undo 'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,' said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula. 'In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran.' The difference, experts say, lies in planning and execution. Israel's air force is smaller but far more agile, better integrated with intelligence and cyber capabilities, and equipped with modified fifth-generation F-35 jets. Live Events High-risk missions, high precision 'Over the past 24 hours, we completed an aerial route to Tehran and conducted an aerial breaching battle,' said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israeli Chief of General Staff. 'IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometres away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision.' With Iran's air defences largely disabled, older Israeli aircraft like the F-15 and F-16 have joined the fight. These now deploy short-range JDAM and Spice-guided bombs—cheap, widely available, and deadly. Lessons from Ukraine but a weaker enemy Military analysts agree that Iran's air defences were easier to defeat than Ukraine's. 'Israel achieved surprise and overmatch over Iran's air defences, which represented a much easier target set than Ukraine's,' said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment . 'The asymmetry in qualitative capability between Israel's air force and Russia is also vast.' Retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer points to culture and training. 'All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it,' he said. In contrast, Israel's military integrates cyber, air, and intelligence capabilities with tight cohesion. Iran caught off guard by design Unlike Ukraine, which was warned of an impending Russian invasion and dispersed its air-defence systems in early 2022, Iran was deceived. Israeli threats were timed around U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for 15 June. Instead, war began on the 13th. Covert Israeli operations destroyed Iranian air-defence nodes with short-range drones. Intelligence teams assassinated senior IRGC leaders. Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst, said, 'Basically, what Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine... but Iranian regime unpopularity made infiltration easier.' Israel's multi-layered defence keeps retaliatory strikes in check Despite maintaining air superiority, Israel continues to face ballistic missile attacks from Iran. Many of these have been intercepted, but some have reached Tel Aviv and other cities. The Israeli military confirmed it intercepted 'the vast majority of the missiles' while acknowledging 'a few impacts on buildings.' Israel's air defence system comprises several layers: Iron Dome: Designed to intercept short-range rockets, operational since 2011, with over 90% success rate. Arrow-2 and Arrow-3: Long-range interceptors targeting ballistic missiles even outside the atmosphere. Built with U.S. support. David's Sling: Targets medium-range threats. Built by Rafael and U.S. firm Raytheon. Iron Beam: A laser-based system still under development. Promising low-cost interception, but not yet operational. U.S. THAAD system: Deployed in Israel and used by the U.S. to intercept incoming Iranian missiles. Air-to-air defences: Israeli jets and helicopters have intercepted drones. Jordan's air force also downed projectiles entering its airspace. Why Iran's air defences failed Iran relied on a fragmented mix of Russian S-300s, Chinese batteries, and local systems—none of which were adequately integrated. Crucially, Iran invested more in its missile capabilities and regional proxies than in defending its own skies. 'Iran never relied on air defences alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,' said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies . But that deterrence—primarily Hezbollah—was crippled last year and physically cut off from Iran. Syrian air-defence systems had already been bombed by Israel, effectively opening a corridor for Israeli jets into Iran. Tehran's underinvestment now appears to have been a costly miscalculation. Striking the source: Israel targets Iran's launch systems Israel's next move is clear: prevent more missile strikes by targeting launchers on the ground. 'The best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container,' said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray. 'What the Israelis are doing is just steadily leveraging an advantage.' Civilian casualties continue to mount on both sides. But from a strategic standpoint, time now appears to be on Israel's side. This unfolding air war is being closely watched. From Washington to New Delhi, defence planners are studying it in detail. As British Air Marshal Martin Sampson put it, 'From Israel's side, the campaign objective is to destroy and degrade—and Iran doesn't have that ability.' The Israel-Iran conflict, like the Ukraine war, offers hard truths about modern warfare. The biggest among them? The side that controls the skies, controls the war.
Hindustan Times
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Israel Takes Control of Iran's Skies—a Feat That Still Eludes Russia in Ukraine
Within 48 hours of starting its war on Iran, Israel said it gained air superiority over the western part of the country, including Tehran. Israeli warplanes began dropping bombs from within Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. That is a feat that the giant Russian air force has been unable to achieve in Ukraine in 3½ years of war. This setback is one of the reasons why Moscow's troops have been bogged down in grinding trench warfare, sustaining staggering losses, ever since they failed to rapidly seize Kyiv in February 2022. On Sunday, Israel was exploiting its advantage, saying it had taken out dozens of surface-to-air missiles in western Iran and killed the intelligence chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with his deputy. The two wars are very different in many respects—for one, there is no conventional land component to the Israeli campaign in Iran. But the experience of these two conflicts, closely observed by militaries around the world, reinforces what war planners have known for decades: Control over air is everything, if you can get it. 'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives,' said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, who oversaw allied air operations against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001. 'In the case of Russia-Ukraine war, you see what happens when neither side can achieve air superiority: stalemate and devolution to attrition-based warfare,' he said. 'In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran.' The initial Israeli airstrikes were using the fifth-generation stealth F-35 aircraft, enhanced with Israeli modifications. Now that most of Iranian air defenses have been suppressed, older warplanes such as F-15 and F-16 are joining the fight. Israel has also started dropping short-range JDAM and Spice guided bombs, which are cheaper and much more abundant than missiles, to devastating effect. 'Over the past 24 hours, we completed an aerial route to Tehran and conducted an aerial breaching battle. IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometers away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision,' said Israeli military Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The Israelis now have 'the ability to use the whole suite of their offensive weapons—in greater mass, more efficiently, and spreading them out,' said retired British Air Marshal Martin Sampson, who directed British air operations against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and now heads the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 'From Israel's side, the campaign objective is to destroy and degrade—and Iran doesn't have that ability.' The Israelis have certainly learned from Russian failures—and Ukrainian successes—as they planned their own campaign against Iran. But, military officials and analysts say, the most obvious lesson so far is that the Israeli air force is intrinsically more capable than the Russians—while Ukraine is much better at defense than Iran. 'Israel achieved surprise and overmatch over Iran's air defenses, which represented a much easier target set than Ukraine's air defenses in almost every respect,' said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and an expert on Russian and Ukrainian militaries. 'The asymmetry in qualitative capability between Israel's air force and Russia is also vast and can be easily observed.' Retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who ran the air campaign in Libya in 2011 and headed operations for the British Ministry of Defense, said that the overall culture, sophisticated training and innovation of the Israeli air force, combined with its integration into intelligence and cyber capabilities, is a key reason why the Israelis succeeded where the Russians have failed. 'All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it,' he said. Just like Ukraine, whose Soviet jet fighters were badly outdated by 2022, Iran doesn't have warplanes capable of surviving air-to-air combat with its foe. Unlike Ukraine, however, Tehran has spectacularly failed to organize ground-based air defenses in ways that could have significantly impeded the ability of enemy aircraft to operate over its territory. This was, above all, the result of a fatal political miscalculation. Over decades, Tehran underinvested in air defenses and bet instead on the deterrent firepower of its own missile forces and those of its regional proxies. 'Iran never relied on air defenses alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence,' said Fabian Hinz, a military expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But the main component of Iranian deterrence—Lebanon's Hezbollah militia—was decimated by Israel last year, and then physically severed from Iran by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Subsequent Israeli bombing of Syrian air-defense installations created a superhighway that Israeli aircraft can use unimpeded on their way to Iran. Ukrainian air defenses—primarily the Soviet-vintage S-300 and Buk systems—were much more robust and better integrated in 2022 than Iran's turned out to be once Israel attacked. Tehran relies on a mishmash of S-300, Chinese batteries and locally made air-defense systems. Equally critical was the element of surprise. Thanks to U.S. intelligence warnings about the impending Russian invasion, the Ukrainian military command dispersed and concealed the bulk of its mobile air-defenses in February 2022. After a handful of Russian jets were downed over Ukrainian cities, manned Russian aircraft stopped operating beyond the front line—the situation that remains in place today. To strike targets deep inside Ukraine, Russia must rely on the limited supply of cruise or ballistic missiles, or on drones, which are slow and carry a limited payload. Ukraine is using its own drones to strike back. Unlike Ukraine in 2022, Iran was caught by surprise—in part because of deceptive Israeli threats to launch the attack should U.S.-Iranian talks scheduled for June 15 fail to produce progress. Instead, the war began two days earlier. Israeli special-operations teams got into Iran covertly and destroyed key Iranian air-defense assets with short-range drones at the start of the campaign, using a method similar to how Ukrainian intelligence barely two weeks earlier blew up several Russian strategic bombers. At the same time, Israel was able to assassinate much of Iran's military leadership—another operation made possible by superior spywork. 'Basically, what Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine: They thought they could pull off some cloak-and-dagger thing, and infiltrate and decapitate the Ukrainian regime,' said Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst. 'But it turned out that the Ukrainian society has a resilience and cannot be so easily penetrated—whereas when it comes to Iran, the regime is so unpopular that it's easy to find people there who will agree to work with Israel.' Despite Israeli strikes, which resulted in numerous civilian casualties alongside military targets, Iran continues to lob ballistic-missile salvos at Israeli cities, also causing death and destruction. Time, however, now appears to be on Israel's side—at least in the immediate future. 'It's a numbers game, and it seems like Israel has the upper hand because they can now go after the missiles that are shooting at them with direct attack. After all, the best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container, and not in the air while it's flying,' said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray, a former U.S. Global Strike Command commander. 'What the Israelis are doing is just steadily leveraging an advantage.' Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines to 100 year archives.
Mint
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Mint
Israel takes control of Iran's skies—a feat that still eludes Russia in Ukraine
Within 48 hours of starting its war on Iran, Israel said it gained air superiority over the western part of the country, including Tehran. Israeli warplanes began dropping bombs from within Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. That is a feat that the giant Russian air force has been unable to achieve in Ukraine in 3½ years of war. This setback is one of the reasons why Moscow's troops have been bogged down in grinding trench warfare, sustaining staggering losses, ever since they failed to rapidly seize Kyiv in February 2022. On Sunday, Israel was exploiting its advantage, saying it had taken out dozens of surface-to-air missiles in western Iran and killed the intelligence chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with his deputy. The two wars are very different in many respects—for one, there is no conventional land component to the Israeli campaign in Iran. But the experience of these two conflicts, closely observed by militaries around the world, reinforces what war planners have known for decades: Control over air is everything, if you can get it. 'The two campaigns are showing the fundamental importance of air superiority in order to succeed in your overall military objectives," said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, who oversaw allied air operations against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001. 'In the case of Russia-Ukraine war, you see what happens when neither side can achieve air superiority: stalemate and devolution to attrition-based warfare," he said. 'In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran." The initial Israeli airstrikes were using the fifth-generation stealth F-35 aircraft, enhanced with Israeli modifications. Now that most of Iranian air defenses have been suppressed, older warplanes such as F-15 and F-16 are joining the fight. Israel has also started dropping short-range JDAM and Spice guided bombs, which are cheaper and much more abundant than missiles, to devastating effect. 'Over the past 24 hours, we completed an aerial route to Tehran and conducted an aerial breaching battle. IAF pilots are flying at great risk to their lives, hundreds of kilometers away from Israel, striking hundreds of different targets with precision," said Israeli military Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The Israelis now have 'the ability to use the whole suite of their offensive weapons—in greater mass, more efficiently, and spreading them out," said retired British Air Marshal Martin Sampson, who directed British air operations against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and now heads the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 'From Israel's side, the campaign objective is to destroy and degrade—and Iran doesn't have that ability." The Israelis have certainly learned from Russian failures—and Ukrainian successes—as they planned their own campaign against Iran. But, military officials and analysts say, the most obvious lesson so far is that the Israeli air force is intrinsically more capable than the Russians—while Ukraine is much better at defense than Iran. 'Israel achieved surprise and overmatch over Iran's air defenses, which represented a much easier target set than Ukraine's air defenses in almost every respect," said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and an expert on Russian and Ukrainian militaries. 'The asymmetry in qualitative capability between Israel's air force and Russia is also vast and can be easily observed." Retired British Air Marshal Edward Stringer, who ran the air campaign in Libya in 2011 and headed operations for the British Ministry of Defense, said that the overall culture, sophisticated training and innovation of the Israeli air force, combined with its integration into intelligence and cyber capabilities, is a key reason why the Israelis succeeded where the Russians have failed. 'All the Russians have is pilots. They grow these pilots to drive flying artillery, and that's it," he said. Just like Ukraine, whose Soviet jet fighters were badly outdated by 2022, Iran doesn't have warplanes capable of surviving air-to-air combat with its foe. Unlike Ukraine, however, Tehran has spectacularly failed to organize ground-based air defenses in ways that could have significantly impeded the ability of enemy aircraft to operate over its territory. This was, above all, the result of a fatal political miscalculation. Over decades, Tehran underinvested in air defenses and bet instead on the deterrent firepower of its own missile forces and those of its regional proxies. 'Iran never relied on air defenses alone to ward off attacks like this. The idea was always to use deterrence," said Fabian Hinz, a military expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But the main component of Iranian deterrence—Lebanon's Hezbollah militia—was decimated by Israel last year, and then physically severed from Iran by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Subsequent Israeli bombing of Syrian air-defense installations created a superhighway that Israeli aircraft can use unimpeded on their way to Iran. Ukrainian air defenses—primarily the Soviet-vintage S-300 and Buk systems—were much more robust and better integrated in 2022 than Iran's turned out to be once Israel attacked. Tehran relies on a mishmash of S-300, Chinese batteries and locally made air-defense systems. Equally critical was the element of surprise. Thanks to U.S. intelligence warnings about the impending Russian invasion, the Ukrainian military command dispersed and concealed the bulk of its mobile air-defenses in February 2022. After a handful of Russian jets were downed over Ukrainian cities, manned Russian aircraft stopped operating beyond the front line—the situation that remains in place today. To strike targets deep inside Ukraine, Russia must rely on the limited supply of cruise or ballistic missiles, or on drones, which are slow and carry a limited payload. Ukraine is using its own drones to strike back. Unlike Ukraine in 2022, Iran was caught by surprise—in part because of deceptive Israeli threats to launch the attack should U.S.-Iranian talks scheduled for June 15 fail to produce progress. Instead, the war began two days earlier. Israeli special-operations teams got into Iran covertly and destroyed key Iranian air-defense assets with short-range drones at the start of the campaign, using a method similar to how Ukrainian intelligence barely two weeks earlier blew up several Russian strategic bombers. At the same time, Israel was able to assassinate much of Iran's military leadership—another operation made possible by superior spywork. 'Basically, what Israel did with Iran is what Russia wanted to do with Ukraine: They thought they could pull off some cloak-and-dagger thing, and infiltrate and decapitate the Ukrainian regime," said Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst. 'But it turned out that the Ukrainian society has a resilience and cannot be so easily penetrated—whereas when it comes to Iran, the regime is so unpopular that it's easy to find people there who will agree to work with Israel." Despite Israeli strikes, which resulted in numerous civilian casualties alongside military targets, Iran continues to lob ballistic-missile salvos at Israeli cities, also causing death and destruction. Time, however, now appears to be on Israel's side—at least in the immediate future. 'It's a numbers game, and it seems like Israel has the upper hand because they can now go after the missiles that are shooting at them with direct attack. After all, the best way to shoot a missile is on the ground while it's in a container, and not in the air while it's flying," said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Timothy Ray, a former U.S. Global Strike Command commander. 'What the Israelis are doing is just steadily leveraging an advantage." Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at
