Analysis-Rise in Al Qaeda attacks revives spectre of West African caliphate

The Star

17-07-2025

DAKAR (Reuters) -At dawn on June 1, gunfire shattered the stillness of Mali's military base in Boulkessi. Waves of jihadist insurgents from an al-Qaeda-linked group stormed the camp, catching newly deployed soldiers off guard.
Some troops, unfamiliar with the base, which lies near Mali's southern border with Burkina Faso, scrambled to find cover while others fled into the arid brush, according to one soldier, who spoke to survivors of the attack.
The soldier, who had completed a tour at the camp a week before, requested anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to journalists.
Hours after the attack, videos circulated online showing jubilant fighters from Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), stepping over the bodies of fallen soldiers.
JNIM claimed it had killed more than 100 troops and showed around 20 soldiers who said they were captured at the base. Reuters was unable to verify the claims independently.
The Boulkessi assault was one of more than a dozen deadly attacks by JNIM on military outposts and towns across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in May and June. The insurgents claimed to have killed more than 400 soldiers in those attacks. Mali's military government has not commented on the toll.
Reuters spoke to five analysts, a security expert and a community leader in the region who said the surge in violence reflects a strategic shift by JNIM - a group founded by a veteran Islamist who rose to prominence by briefly seizing northern Mali in 2012.
JNIM is moving from rural guerrilla tactics to a campaign aimed at controlling territory around urban centres and asserting political dominance in the Sahel, they said.
"The recent attacks point a concrete effort to encircle Sahelian capitals, aiming for a parallel state stretching from western Mali to southern Niger and northern Benin," said Mucahid Durmaz, senior Africa analyst at risk intelligence group Verisk Maplecroft.
Attacks by JNIM left more 850 people dead across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in May, a rise from the average rate of killings of around 600 in previous months, according to data from U.S. crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
The surge in attacks in May and June marks one of the deadliest periods in the Sahel's recent history and underscores the threat posed by jihadist groups at a time when regional governments are estranged from former Western military allies, analysts say.
More than a decade of insurgencies in the Sahel has caused mass displacement and economic collapse. The violence has steadily spread towards coastal West Africa, straining regional stability and fuelling migration toward Europe.
On July 1, JNIM carried out simultaneous attacks on army camps and positions in seven towns in central and western Mali, according to an army statement and claims by the insurgents.
The army said 80 militants were killed. Reuters was unable to reach JNIM for comment. The group releases its statements and videos on social media, and has no media spokesperson.
Mali's army did not respond to Reuters requests for comments about the wave of JNIM attacks. It said in a statement after the Boulkessi assault that troops responded "vigorously" before retreating.
"Many soldiers fought, some to their last breath," the statement said.
STRATEGIC PIVOT
JNIM's leader, Iyad Ag Ghaly, has been instrumental in its transformation.
A former rebel leader in Mali's Tuareg uprisings in the 1990s, Ag Ghaly led the fundamentalist group Ansar Dine that was part of a coalition of groups that briefly occupied northern Mali in 2012.
The militants imposed a harsh version of sharia law - banning music, imposing mutilations as punishment for crimes, and holding public executions and floggings.
Thousands fled, and cultural sites were destroyed, leaving lasting trauma in the region before the rebels were driven out by a French military intervention the following year. Ag Ghaly is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who seized power between 2020 and 2023 on the back of the prolonged insurgencies, promise to restore security before returning their countries to democratic rule.
They've cut ties with Western nations and expelled their forces, blaming them for failing to end the insurgencies and turning instead to Russia for military support.
After deploying mercenaries, the Russians have also suffered setbacks and been unable to contain the uprisings.
In Burkina Faso — a country about half the size of France — militants exert influence or control over an estimated 60% of the territory, according to ACLED.
Ag Ghaly, who has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has positioned himself as the leader of a jihadist coalition that includes al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al-Mourabitoun, and Katiba Macina after they merged into JNIM in 2017.
A Western security source, who requested anonymity because he is not authorised to speak publicly, told Reuters that JNIM has emerged as the region's strongest militant group, with an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 fighters.
Ag Ghaly's goal, the analysts said, is to impose Islamic rule across the Sahel and extend its influence to coastal West Africa, a region twice the size of Western Europe, with a population of around 430 million people, many of them Christian.
In a rare video released in December 2023, he denounced the military governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso and called on Muslims to mobilize against them and their Russian allies.
Ag Ghaly could not be reached for comment. The governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger did not respond to requests for comment.
SOPHISTICATED TACTICS, LOCAL OUTREACH
JNIM's battlefield tactics have grown increasingly sophisticated, including the use of anti-aircraft weapons and drones for surveillance and precision strikes, Durmaz said.
It has amassed substantial resources, meanwhile, through raids, cattle rustling, hijacking of goods, kidnappings and taxes on local communities, the five analysts said.
While it has not appointed local administrators in areas under its control, JNIM has imposed a tax known as 'Zakat' for protection, according to two residents and a former militia fighter.
They have quelled some inter-communal conflicts and imposed a form of Sharia law, requiring women to wear veils and men to grow beards. But they have refrained from severe punishments, such as amputating the hands of thieves.
Heni Nsaibia, Senior West Africa analyst at ACLED, described its recent activity as a "step change".
He said JNIM seizing Burkina Faso's northern provincial capital Djibo, a town of over 60,000 people, on May 11 and Diapaga, an eastern provincial capital of around 15,000, two days later was unprecedented.
"In Djibo they stayed for 11 hours or plus. In Diapaga they remained for two-three days even. And that is very much something that we haven't seen before," Nsaibia said.
According to Nsaibia, the group has captured an estimated $3 million worth of munitions in Djibo alone.
The repeated attacks have left the capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso unsettled, and idea of JNIM taking over Bamako or Ouagadougou, once considered far-fetched, is a plausible threat, according to Nsaibia.
JNIM's outreach to marginalized communities, particularly the Fulani, a widely dispersed pastoralist group, has been central to recruitment, the analysts said.
"JNIM is advancing its narrative as a defender of marginalised communities," Durmaz said. "They are not just fighting for territory — they're fighting for legitimacy."
Fulani have increasingly found themselves targeted by authorities across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso under the banner of counter-terrorism, a Fulani community leader told Reuters, requesting anonymity for safety reasons.
While not all Fulani are involved in armed groups, their presence is significant among insurgents in rural areas, driven more by frustration and lack of opportunity than ideology, the leader said.
JNIM's ambitions now stretch beyond the Sahel. The group has expanded its operations into northern Benin and Togo, and are threatening Gulf of Guinea states which they use as a rear base, according to analysts.
Both countries have deployed more security forces in the northern regions as insurgents ramp up attacks.
"Togo and Benin are the most vulnerable due to their limited counterterrorism capabilities, existing local grievances in their northern regions, and porous borders with Burkina Faso," Durmaz said.
($1 = 554.9000 CFA francs)
(Additional reporting Robbie Corey-Boulet and Bate Felix Writing by Bate Felix)