UFC 316: Preview, betting odds and predictions; Merab and Patchy Mix, top picks
TOI-Online Merab Dvalishvili, Dana White and Sean O'Malley. Photo via UFC/YouTube (screengrab)
Every big UFC event comes with a swirl of questions, but UFC 316 feels especially charged. At the heart of it is whether Sean O'Malley has done enough — changed enough — to handle the relentless pressure of bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in their highly anticipated rematch. The first fight wasn't close. Dvalishvili came forward like a storm and never let O'Malley breathe, let alone strike cleanly. Since then, O'Malley's made some noticeable changes behind the scenes. Different training partners, a shift in personal habits, a clear focus. But even the most polished version of O'Malley still has to deal with the same problem: Dvalishvili doesn't slow down. He breaks fighters with volume, cardio, and suffocating control. If you're betting this one, the value's in Merab by decision at -160. He's not a finisher, and O'Malley's durable enough to survive. But surviving isn't winning, and this matchup still tilts Merab's way.
The co-main has its own kind of gravity. Kayla Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist stepping into the UFC title picture — not in theory, not 'one day,' but right now. She's fighting Julianna Peña, a veteran who's already pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history when she beat Amanda Nunes in 2021. Peña thrives as the underdog, and she's tough, but toughness alone doesn't neutralize judo throws and top pressure. Harrison will likely get her to the ground, and once she does, the finish is coming — either with strikes or a submission. You can bet Harrison by sub at +130 or by TKO at +275, but the smarter route might just be to take the double chance (submission or TKO/DQ) at -175 and cover both lanes. The only concern? Harrison didn't look great on the scales. If Peña can drag it into the fourth or fifth, things might get interesting.
Further down the card, there are a few spots worth watching. Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland is the kind of fight that screams chaos on paper, but there's reason to believe it lasts a bit. Luque's a grinder with sneaky grappling, and Holland's no slouch off his back. They've both had quick finishes in the past, but this matchup looks like it could stretch into the second half. Over 1.5 rounds at -175 feels like the right call.
Then there's Mario Bautista taking on Patchy Mix. Bautista's a hard-nosed, versatile fighter who knows how to win ugly. But Mix, a former Bellator champ, is stepping into the UFC while still in his athletic prime — and it shows. His past mistake, gassing out against Juan Archuleta in 2020, seems to have reshaped his entire approach. If he stays off the fence and sticks to the game plan, he should get it done. Mix at -180 on the moneyline is the play — not flashy, just solid.
The most unpredictable of the bunch might be Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer. Pyfer's bigger, more powerful, and on the way up. Gastelum, though, has been through the fire and doesn't go away easily. Pyfer might win, but Gastelum's toughness makes a decision more likely than a finish. If you're leaning toward safety, bet the fight to go the distance at nearly even money (-105) and walk away without trying to predict which version of each guy shows up. Altogether, it's a card with more questions than answers — which is often when value appears for bettors. The matchups at the top have drama. The ones beneath are full of risk-reward. And by Sunday morning, we'll know whether the talk of change, redemption, and fresh starts were just fight-week noise — or something more.
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