Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico prediction, pick, start time for UFC 319
Last event: 4-2
UFC main cards, 2025: 80-60-1
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 preview
Murphy (16-0-1 MMA, 8-0-1 UFC) puts his undefeated record on the line against a newcomer. "The Miracle" has won five straight fights by decision: Gabriel Santos, Josh Culibao, Edson Barboza, Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Murphy's last stoppage came in the second round against Makwan Amirkhani in October 2021. ... Pico (13-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his UFC debut against a top-ranked, undefeated opponent. He's currently riding a three-fight winning streak, which includes a decision over James Gonzalez and back-to-back first-round stoppages of Pedro Carvalho and Henry Corrales.
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 expert pick, prediction
The co-main event for UFC 319 features an impromptu featherweight fight between top contender Lerone Murphy and promotional newcomer Aaron Pico.
On many people's radar before his first professional fight, Pico came to popularity as a super prospect preordained to be the next big thing. Despite some hiccups from being rushed by his management out of the gate, Pico has been able to recover from multiple hurdles by building up an exciting highlight reel en route to amassing his current win streak.
Although many will point to the propensity for Bellator fighters to underperform in their promotional debuts, it's also important to remember that the UFC matchmakers have traditionally given these kinds of competitors rude welcomes to the octagon in the form of stylistically unfavorable matchups. And when you consider that Pico was initially slated to face Movsar Evloev before this Murphy booking, it's hard not to put a tin foil hat on in that regard.
That said, should Pico show out fantastically this Saturday, then I suspect that the UFC will make the no-brainer move of getting behind the marketable American, full throttle.
It's hard to say what kind of condition Murphy is coming in at or how hard his weight cut was, given the short-notice nature of his booking. For that reason, I believe that the Englishman could be more vulnerable to body shots than normal.
Add in the Pico's punch-and-smother stylings, and I suspect that he can find a finish over the criminally underrated Murphy. I feel like the wrong fighter could be favored here, as a finish either way wouldn't surprise me – but the official pick is Pico by knockout in Round 1.
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 odds
The oddsmakers and the public favor the American fighter, listing Pico -176 and Murphy +142 via FanDuel.
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Murphy and Pico are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 11:40 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
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