How will the heavyweight division look at the end of 2026?

Independent

3 days ago

If 2025 is going to be remembered for anything, it may be that it was the last burst of sunlight for a golden age of the heavyweight division.
Oleksandr Usyk reminded the world with some brutality a few weeks ago by stopping Daniel Dubois again to prove that he is the leading heavyweight of his generation. But Usyk is 38 years old and said before that fight that he was looking at only two more bouts to finish off his career.
The Ukrainian fighter will likely look then to retire within the next year if he sticks to this plan. And while he has led the division and been its north star in recent years, it is equally likely that he will lead the exodus of the division's largest names – former champions and contenders – over the next year to eighteen months.
Like Usyk, the top level of the division is ageing out. Tyson Fury, seemingly on another comeback trail, is 36. Anthony Joshua is 35. Dillian Whyte, who faces Moses Itauma later this month, is 37. Derek Chisora, seemingly forever circling the drain, is 41. Kubrat Pulev, who seems to be aping the same motion, is 44. Zhilei Zhang is 42. Joe Joyce is 39.
Most of them are approaching the age of retirement from the ring. Some of them – those in their 40s – have already gone beyond that.
All this implies a great shift in the landscape of the big men within that year-to-eighteen-month timeframe.
Kingdoms are defined by their kings, and Oleksandr Usyk is, by his own admission, coming to the end of his reign. The question is what his next steps will be.
According to the World Boxing Organization (WBO), Usyk is mandated to face New Zealand's Joseph Parker. Parker wants that fight. It is unclear, however, if Usyk feels the same way.
But it seems likely that whether Usyk takes the fight or not, the outcome will be the same.
If Usyk fights Parker and wins, he retires and the WBO title becomes vacant. Parker moves up from holding his current interim champion to being full champion.
If Usyk fights Parker and loses, Parker is the new WBO champion. The question at that point is whether Usyk goes for the rematch or not.
That means that Joseph Parker, a year from now, should be the full WBO champion. Should be...
The other belts in Usyk's arsenal – the WBC, WBA, and the IBF – will be up for grabs should Usyk retire.
The WBC's interim champion is the German boxer Agit Kabayel, 26-0 (18). Kabayel may be among the leaders of the younger generation of heavyweights (he is 32), but if he does not get to fight Usyk and gets elevated to full WBC champion, that may not last long. Kabayel is strong and good, but is an undersized heavyweight in a landscape of giants. As it stands, his top contender is Lawrence Okolie, followed by Anthony Joshua, Efe Ajagba, Martin Bakole, and Filip Hrgovic. The easiest fight out of all of them would arguably be Joshua if he has not retired in the interim.
Moving to the WBA, the organisation has three heavyweight champions – Usyk is 'super' champion, Kubrat Pulev is the regular champion, and Fabio Wardley is the 'interim' champion. Should Usyk retire, expect a stadium fight in the UK between Pulev and Wardley. Once Wardley wins that, the top contenders would be Michael Hunter and Moses Itauma. So the end of 2026 could see Itauma facing Wardley in an all-British title match.
The IBF, meanwhile, has yet to update officially its ratings, still listing Daniel Dubois as its champion. While there is no #1 contender, ranked from two to five are Derek Chisora, Efe Ajagba, Frank Sanchez, and Joshua. Should that title open up, Chisora would be the highest-placed contender – but it is unsure whether he is retired yet (at 41, he cannot be far away). A more-interesting fight would be Ajagba and Sanchez. Sanchez would be favourited to win, but the title would be leaving Europe either way.
All of this is not taking into account the gravitational pull that Fury and Joshua can exert through their box office power. Any champion could, in inheriting a championship, defend against either in a special voluntary defense.
The only thing that can be predicted with any clarity is that the exit of Oleksandr Usyk will be like a plug being removed from the division. Chaos is likely to be the only thing to reign undisputedly.
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