Peace in the South Caucasus opens door to a new era

Arab News

2 days ago

https://arab.news/gzyjp
History was made at the White House on Friday when US President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for a landmark meeting. Against all odds, and after more than three decades of failed diplomacy by the international community, the two leaders signed a joint declaration committing to a final peace treaty that will normalize relations between their countries. Their foreign ministers also initialed a draft version of that treaty, with plans for full ratification within the next 12 months.
This breakthrough was not brokered in Moscow, Ankara, or Brussels — but in Washington. For decades, the South Caucasus has been a flashpoint for regional competition, unresolved wars, and missed diplomatic opportunities. Now, with US reengagement, real peace may finally be within reach between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The roots of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict go back to the final years of the Soviet Union. As Moscow's grip weakened in the late 1980s and early 1990s, ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan unilaterally voted to join the Republic of Armenia. This vote, conducted outside of any legal framework and boycotted by the region's Azerbaijani population, had no legitimacy under international law or Azerbaijan's constitution.
Soon after, Armenia intervened militarily to support the separatists. The result was a brutal war that killed tens of thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands more. By 1994, Armenia occupied a swath of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory. A ceasefire brokered by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe froze the conflict, but did little to resolve it.
From 1994 to 2020, negotiations sputtered. Armenia retained control over Karabakh and adjacent territories, while Azerbaijan pushed for a peaceful restoration of its sovereignty. Then, in 2020, after years of frustration, Azerbaijan launched a military operation and regained much of the land lost in the 1990s. Russia stepped in to mediate a ceasefire, inserting peacekeepers into the region and allowing Armenia to retain a portion of Karabakh. But this arrangement was always fragile. By 2023, Azerbaijan had reasserted full control of its territory, and Russian troops quietly withdrew.
Since then, both countries have expressed a desire for a comprehensive peace. But the process stalled, largely due to mistrust and the waning credibility of Moscow. Russia, historically, has used the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as leverage to maintain influence in the South Caucasus. Neither Baku nor Yerevan trusts Moscow to be a neutral broker anymore.
Trump has filled the diplomatic vacuum left by Russia's decline.
Luke Coffey
Enter the US. By hosting the leaders at the White House, Trump has filled the diplomatic vacuum left by Russia's decline and Europe's inertia. The signed declaration and initialed treaty draft are remarkable accomplishments. But challenges remain.
First, Armenia must amend its constitution to remove any references to territorial claims on Azerbaijani land. This will be politically delicate for Pashinyan, who faces pressure from nationalist factions at home. Second, Azerbaijan has long sought access to a land corridor through Armenian territory to connect its western exclave of Nakhchivan with the rest of the country. Under the 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia, Armenia had agreed to such a route — but almost five years later, it has yet to materialize.
To address this, a novel solution was announced: the creation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, known by its acronym TRIPP. This US-led initiative will facilitate the opening of a secure transit corridor through Armenia, linking Azerbaijan proper with Nakhchivan, while ensuring Armenian sovereignty through its territory. A private US firm will manage the corridor's logistics and security in cooperation with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials. Construction is expected to begin before the end of the year, with the route fully operational before Trump leaves office.
Neither Baku nor Yerevan trusts Moscow to be a neutral broker.
Luke Coffey
If successful, this initiative will mark a major geopolitical victory. In just five months, Trump may achieve what Vladimir Putin could not in five years.
But the peace agreement is not the end of the story — it is the beginning of a new era. A normalized relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan will unlock opportunities for broader regional cooperation. Chief among these is the long-awaited normalization between Armenia and Turkiye. Such a breakthrough would allow Armenia to benefit from the vast network of energy pipelines and trade routes that have long bypassed it due to the unresolved conflict.
Peace would also revitalize discussions about a long-proposed trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. With US diplomatic momentum behind it, this project — stalled for decades — could finally move forward. Such a pipeline would strengthen Europe's energy security and offer another strategic victory for the transatlantic community in the era of great-power competition.
Additionally, this opens the door to new bilateral infrastructure initiatives between Armenia and Azerbaijan — projects once considered politically impossible. One example is a direct gas and oil pipeline linking the two countries, which would not only deepen economic ties but also serve as a confidence-building measure.
Of course, not everyone will welcome these developments. Iran, which sees the South Caucasus as part of its historic area of interest, will view a US-backed peace with suspicion. Russia, increasingly distracted and diminished by its war in Ukraine, is already being sidelined. Many Armenians distrust Moscow after feeling abandoned by Russia during the 2020 war. Likewise, Azerbaijani-Russian relations are at a low point after the Russian military shot down an Azerbaijani Airlines plane last December.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal led by the White House is not only a regional breakthrough, but also a demonstration of what US leadership can achieve. The US may not be a Eurasian country, but after the meeting at the White House this week, it is certainly acting like a Eurasian power. For Washington, and its allies and partners in the region, this is a positive thing.