Industrials best performing sector YTD: JPMorgan's Stephen Tusa on his top stock picks
Stephen Tusa, JPMorgan senior analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the industrials sector, impact of tariffs on the industry, his top picks in the sector, and more.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Positive U.S. Regulatory Environment More Conducive for Crypto Corporate Activity: JPMorgan
Expectations of a more benign regulatory environment in the U.S. is leading to an increase in the number of crypto companies looking to go public and an uplift in venture capital (VC) funding, investment bank JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report Wednesday. The GENIUS Act's progress in the Senate has become a "key factor in anticipating a clearer and more supportive regulatory environment," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. "The anticipation of such a U.S. regulatory environment is conducive to crypto corporate activity such as IPOs and VC funding," the authors wrote. The Senate's Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act mandates federal regulation for stablecoins with a market cap of over $10 billion with the potential for state regulation if it aligns with federal rules. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is tied to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar or gold. They play a major role in cryptocurrency markets and are also used to transfer money internationally. The bank noted that the number of crypto IPOs so far this year matches the pace of offerings seen in the bull market of 2021. Press reports suggest that more crypto companies, including Ripple, Kraken, Consenys and CoinDesk's owner Bullish are getting ready to IPO this year, the report said. Venture capital funding is also on the rise, and has exceeded levels seen in 2023/24, on an annualized basis, the bank said. IPOs give crypto investors a way to diversify their digital asset exposure beyond just bitcoin BTC and ether ETH, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. It means they can take advantage of opportunities in areas such as blockchain infrastructure, payments and settlement, custody and tokenization, the report added.
Business Insider
7 hours ago
- Business Insider
Trump's tariffs and tax bill look like a 'Greek tragedy' that could tank the economy and stocks, former IMF official warns
Like a protagonist in a Greek tragedy, President Donald Trump is exhibiting a concerning level of hubris in his handling of the US economy, former IMF official Desmond Lachman worries. Despite warnings from credible sources — like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink — about what tariffs would mean for inflation and growth, and what his tax cut bill would mean for bond yields and the US dollar, Trump is doubling down on these policies, Lachman said in a June 10 post for the American Enterprise Institute, where he is a senior fellow. Unless Trump changes course, Lachman said, he could end up reigniting inflation, pushing up long-term bond yields, further tanking the US dollar, and sending the US economy into recession. "To Trump, these warnings are like water off a duck's back. Instead of dialing back his tariff policy, Trump has recently raised the import tariff on all aluminum and steel imports to a staggering 50%," Lachman wrote. He continued: "At the same time, instead of coming up with belt-tightening revenue and spending measures to address the country's gaping budget deficit of 6.25% of GDP, Trump is making every effort to secure the passage of his budget-busting One Big Beautiful Bill." So far, inflation has been tame and the labor market has held up as businesses have started to digest tariffs. But Lachman said the US economy is not out of the woods yet. Since businesses stockpiled inventory to prepare for Trump's tariffs, their effects won't start to show up until the second half of the year, he told Business Insider on Friday. "The fact that you're not seeing it in the May, June, July data, it doesn't mean anything," Lachman said. Here's the US trade deficit showing a surge in foreign goods buying from US businesses in late 2024 and early 2025. But tariffs aren't the only inflationary factor potentially at play. Lachman said that if you add the implications of Trump's tax bill on the value of the US dollar as the the national debt and budget deficit grow, consumers could end up paying even higher prices. With the dollar's value down 10%, for example, it means foreign goods are more expensive in addition to the 10% tariffs, or more, already being paid. In an inflationary environment — and with no indication that the US government is looking to reduce its debt and budget deficit — foreign investors have started to flee, and could continue to do so. That could send long-term Treasury rates soaring, Lachman said, slowing the US economy as the cost of lending follows suit. All of this puts US stocks in danger with valuations elevated, Lachman said. For example, here's the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which measures current stock prices against a rolling average of earnings over the last 10 years. "Start with the fact that the stock market has got very high valuations, and then overlay that with the likelihood that you could have either a bond or a dollar crisis, and it would seem to me that stocks don't do very well," he said. The myth probably most associated with hubris and its sometimes disastrous consequences is the tale of Icarus. Looking to escape from a labyrinth, his father builds him wings made of wax. Icarus succeeds in getting off the ground, but in the end ignores his father's warnings and flies too close to the sun, melting his wings. Trump having imposed steep universal tariffs without sparking inflation or a recession has so far defied conventional wisdom and warnings from top economists. But with Trump's tax bill on the way, will his wings, along with the US economy and stock market, soon start to melt?
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Yahoo
Wall Street is on the cusp of ending the dumbest recruiting cycle known to man, and we all could stand to benefit from it
JPMorgan and Apollo took steps to delay the early recruitment of junior bankers. The move challenges the traditional recruiting cycle for entry-level PE jobs. If successful, the switch would shake up the entire industry and benefit people outside PE. They were the shots heard round Murray Hill. Recent announcements by JPMorgan and Apollo aimed at slowing down the early recruitment of junior bankers have sent young Wall Streeters into a frenzy. First, JPMorgan threatened termination for first-year analysts accepting future-dated private-equity jobs. Then, private-equity firm Apollo delayed recruiting young bankers. Not long after, Business Insider was first to report that PE giant General Atlantic told young bankers it's also pumping the brakes. The entire episode is still unfolding, but it risks upending years of planning by people pursuing one of the most sought-after careers in finance. And the end result could be PE firms pulling from a much bigger pool of talent as opposed to the select few who zeroed in on nabbing a job in the industry years ago. The news isn't just important for your Wall Street buddy who played lacrosse in college, though. Upending the well-worn practice of PE recruiting could ultimately impact all of us. And it's not a bad thing. Understanding the magnitude of JPMorgan's and Apollo's announcements is realizing the effort it takes to get a job in PE. Imagine you have a big test on Monday. While most of your classmates spent the weekend partying, you buckle down and hit the books so you're fully prepared. But when Monday comes your teacher postpones the test so everyone else can study more. That doesn't negate the work you did, but it definitely stings a bit. Now imagine it's not a test but the chance at a job with a base salary upwards of $150,000 that you spent years, not just a weekend, getting ready for. Starting to get the idea? Still, you might be asking yourself: Why do I care about changes to PE recruitment? (To be fair, you clicked the link, but I'll allow it.) The truth is, this impacts more people than just those who consider a Friday night at Hair of the Dog a good time. Private-equity's reach is immense, and it's only set to get bigger. At the end of last year, PE firms had $1.2 trillion in global buyout dry powder, according to Bain & Company. That's a lot of cash ready to be put to work when dealmaking takes off. The industry is also evolving beyond the typical PE strategies we're used to, like bundling up smaller companies. Firms are becoming big lenders, often beating regulator-constrained banks at their own game. (Whether that's a good or bad thing remains to be seen. But that's a conversation for another day.) In short, it's a PE-backed world, and we're all just living in it. Working off the premise that private equity remains an unavoidable part of our future, the industry's hiring tactics, even at the junior level, suddenly seem a lot more important. Apollo's move could be viewed as a way to avoid picking a fight with the biggest US bank. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan's statement to BI offers some more insight. First, he alludes to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's criticism of the early recruitment of junior bankers. "When someone says something that is just plainly true, I feel compelled to agree with it," Rowan wrote via email. He then touched on why a reset was called for. "Asking students to make career decisions before they truly understand their options doesn't serve them or our industry," he wrote. "When great candidates make rushed decisions it creates avoidable turnover—and that serves no one," Rowan added. I'm not trying to carry PE's water here, but that makes sense to me! Not only is it incredibly dumb to ask young people to commit to their next job before they start their first one, but it also limits PE firms from a recruiting perspective. Under the current framework, people vying for these PE positions tend to fit a certain profile. From prestigious universities to finance clubs to summer internships to analyst jobs, the path to PE glory doesn't leave much room for detours. That's not to say these people make bad PE employees. God knows we've got plenty of examples of those who followed that exact route to success. But who says there isn't a great potential PE dealmaker out there taking the long road, so to speak? Maybe they didn't learn about PE or realize they wanted to get into the industry until the treadmill was moving too fast for them to jump on. Wanting to be in PE for a long time doesn't make you the most qualified person to work in PE. Meanwhile, pulling from such a small, selective talent pool could put firms at risk of groupthink. If you need to tick a certain number of boxes before getting a sniff at PE, you'll likely find a lot of people who were taught to think the same way. And when it comes to investing, that rarely turns out well. Moving away from that model is also good for the rest of us. As our interactions with PE firms grow, having people on the inside who understand life outside the PE rat race can benefit us all. Full disclosure: I'm still not convinced this will ultimately change anything. We've been down this path before. A few years ago a group of PE recruiters made a pact to hold off approaching junior bankers too early … only for one of them to break the truce and try front running the others. (This is Wall Street after all.) There's also nothing stopping another PE firm, let's call them Whitepebble or LLS, from using Apollo's pause as a way to scoop up even more talent. Or for another bank, let's call them Nevermore or Wizard, from telling aspiring bankers they'll be happy to help with their PE aspirations when they're recruiting on college campuses this fall. I'm also not naive enough to think that Apollo will open up the floodgates to anyone when it eventually starts recruiting associates. Even getting a sniff at such a prestigious firm will still be an honor for only a select few. But a slight deviation from the regimented system we have in place, where committing to a long-term career before you're even considered a legal adult is almost a prerequisite, is a step in the right direction. What do you think of the change? Is it a good thing that firms are taking a pause? Or will the PE industry lose something by slowing down early recruitment? Email me at ddefrancesco@ Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
