NBA Finals: Biggest storylines, predictions for Thunder vs. Pacers

NBC News

3 days ago

The Oklahoma City Thunder were the hottest NBA team all season. The Indiana Pacers were the most unstoppable of the postseason's past month.
Now, they meet in the NBA Finals.
When Game 1 tips off Thursday in Oklahoma City, both teams will be ending long droughts — 12 years since the Thunder's last Finals appearance and a 25-year absence for the Pacers. Oklahoma City is chasing the franchise's first championship since it relocated from Seattle in 2008. Indiana won three ABA championships between 1970 and 1973 but has never replicated a title-winning season since it joined the NBA as part of its merger with the ABA in 1976.
The Thunder boast new Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Pacers lean on their own star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton, but both teams are examples of the modern NBA, in which rosters built around depth, not just two or three All-Star players, have ruled.
Let's break down who and what could decide the 2025 NBA Finals.
Other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, who is the most important player in the series?
Rohan Nadkarni: By the end of the Pacers' series with the New York Knicks, Andrew Nembhard had frustrated Jalen Brunson so much to the point that Brunson headbutted him during Game 6. Can Nembhard do the same to the MVP of the league? So far during the postseason, nobody has had an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Indiana can't simply try to play with pace, because the Thunder like to play fast, as well. If the Pacers are going to have any chance in this matchup, though, they'll have to make life difficult for SGA. Nembhard and (along with Aaron Nesmith, who could be limited after suffering an ankle injury in the conference finals) is going to be a key factor in trying to slow down the MVP.
Greif: Who winds up becoming the better second option? Because with Indiana trying to take away Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City the same with Haliburton, it's on the Pacers' Pascal Siakam and Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams to do enough to make their opponent think twice about devoting so much attention to their star teammates. The key difference is that unlike Williams, Siakam has done precisely this role before, during Toronto's 2019 title team while playing alongside Kawhi Leonard.
What must the Thunder do to win?
Nadkarni: Play Oklahoma City basketball. I know that sounds incredibly simple, but the truth of the matter is, despite how great the Pacers have been over the last five months, the Thunder are the better basketball team. OKC was the only team to finish in the top three in both offense (third) and defense (first) during the regular season. Just about anything Indiana does well, you could make an argument the Thunder do it better.
I'll add, though, that OKC's focus in late-game situations will need to be razor sharp. The Pacers have pulled off so many miraculous comebacks this postseason you almost can't call them miracles anymore. The Thunder can't let their foot off the gas and give Indiana any kind of life in the fourth quarter.
Andrew Greif: Force Indiana to turn the ball over. Here's the big number to remember: When Oklahoma City gets 10-plus steals this season, it is 43-4. That is not a misprint. The Thunder led the league in steals during the regular season at more than 10 per game — two more per game than the league average — and have been even slightly better in the postseason.
The Pacers committed the third-fewest turnovers per game this season, and their very best attribute is their ability to play fast without being careless and giving away possessions. (That's also what makes Indiana so good at pulling off comebacks.) But when their offense is disrupted, their fortunes are, too. The Pacers are 34-19 this season with fewer turnovers than their opponents, compared with 12-12 with more. And Oklahoma City has just the personnel to cause havoc.
What must the Pacers do to win?
Nadkarni: Score in transition as much as humanly possible. The Thunder's defense has been suffocating all postseason, minus a couple of blips in the conference finals. As much movement and verve the Pacers play with in the half-court, they cannot afford to play against OKC's set defense if they want to score consistently. That means Indiana will need to do even more of what it did against the Knicks: create turnovers for easy scores and run incredibly hard even off made baskets for semi-transition opportunities.
If the Pacers are forced to play anything resembling a half-court game against the Thunder, they will lose. OKC's defense is probably the best of this decade, and it has been even better in the playoffs than it was during the regular season. If Indiana is going to win, it needs to consistently attack when the Thunder can't get set.
Greif: Create ways for Haliburton to operate offensively in ways that Minnesota couldn't for Anthony Edwards during the Western Conference finals. Edwards is one of the premier young scorers in the NBA, but he was handcuffed by an Oklahoma City defense that ranked first during the regular season and remains No. 1 in the playoffs.
The Thunder have a first-team all-defense honoree in Lu Dort, a second-team member in Jalen Williams, one of the league's best rim protectors in Isaiah Hartenstein and an elite perimeter stopper in Alex Caruso. Their collective top priority is to contain Haliburton, whose confidence feeds the Pacers' as a whole. Oklahoma City is so good defensively in the half-court that Indiana must look to score after Thunder turnovers or missed shots. Both of those played to the Packers' strengths against New York, whom Indiana outscored by 79 off turnovers and by 58 in fast-break opportunities.
Who wins the series?
Nadkarni: Thunder in five. I love the Pacers, who are chaos agents who twist games into pretzels only they know how to unwind. And Rick Carlisle is a genius-level coach who will employ every possible strategy at his disposal.
And yet ... Oklahoma City is just that dominant. The Thunder were a juggernaut during the regular season, and so far in the playoffs they have really been tested only by Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić, perhaps the most unsolvable player in the league. There is a talent gap here that's reflected in the numbers over now a nearly 100-game sample size. I would love if this were a long series — I just can't predict that based on the strength of OKC.
Greif: Oklahoma City in six games. When these teams played on March 29, two weeks before the playoffs began, Indiana had won six of its previous seven games and Oklahoma City was playing without big man Chet Holmgren and lost his backup, Hartenstein, for the second half with an injury. Yet the Thunder won by 21 points, anyway.
Yes, it was just one game, but it was an indication of the surplus of talent on this roster and the challenge Indiana will have stopping it. Though Indiana's unbelievably gutsy postseason can't be denied, Oklahoma City has played just as well, its young roster maturing in real time.