How much longer can Netanyahu survive in power?

Arab News

2 days ago

https://arab.news/w94uc
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just dodged a bullet. On Thursday, the Knesset held a vote that could have dissolved the parliament and forced snap elections. However, 61 members voted against the bill and only 53 voted in favor. This is despite a majority of Israelis (57 percent) wanting early elections. Again, Netanyahu has proved he is a political survivor.
During Israel's post-Oct. 7 war on Gaza, a lot of scrutiny has been placed on the exemption from military service for the Haredim, ultra-Orthodox seminary students. The coalition government's two ultra-Orthodox parties had threatened to leave the government and back the vote to dissolve the Knesset if the exemption from military service was not added to a draft bill on the Israeli military.
Netanyahu's government is made up of his Likud party, far-right groups led by the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the ultra-Orthodox parties. The coalition was experiencing a crisis. The far-right groups wanted to remove the privilege from the ultra-Orthodox groups, as they want the Haredim to be drafted for the Gaza war. With the bill's defeat, Netanyahu will be able to spend more time in power, as the polls are predicting he would lose if early elections were held.
Netanyahu is a survivor, a true political animal. Regardless of the circumstances, he never throws in the towel. He knows how to stay in the game, no matter the cost. Netanyahu has been facing multiple corruption charges for years. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was thrown in jail for corruption. He was convicted of bribery and obstruction of justice. But those charges are considered minor compared to Netanyahu's long list of alleged misdeeds. However, Netanyahu has so far been able to skillfully dodge every allegation.
Netanyahu is a survivor, a true political animal. Regardless of the circumstances, he never throws in the towel
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
The current PM even changed the balance of power in the system in order to protect himself. In the year that preceded the start of the Gaza war, he introduced a bill that sought to remove the Supreme Court's supervision of government decisions. He subjugated the judicial system to make sure he remained above the law.
Protests erupted in Tel Aviv as a result. They were supported by the opposition, former intelligence and military officers, former justices and community leaders. Protesters demanded Netanyahu's resignation. His judicial overhaul created a big rift in Israeli society. Israeli President Isaac Herzog warned that the country faced 'societal collapse.' But Netanyahu did not seem to care. His political survival was more important.
The Oct. 7 attacks gave Netanyahu the perfect excuse to remain in power. The country was at war. However, that day also brought against him the ultimate charge: he was accused of negligence and allowing Oct. 7 to happen. However, instead of accepting personal and political responsibility, he tried to scapegoat his lieutenants. He shifted the blame to the military and the intelligence services. The war became a good excuse to delay talks about his corruption and his failures. Netanyahu needs the war to continue.
Donald Trump, even though he was Netanyahu's preferred candidate in last year's US presidential election, brought a new hurdle. In his campaign, Trump promised to end all wars, including the one in Ukraine and the one in the Middle East. In the days before his inauguration in January, he sent his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Tel Aviv and a ceasefire was put in place.
Netanyahu ultimately broke the ceasefire in March as he wanted to keep his coalition together. Ben-Gvir had left the government and Smotrich threatened to do the same, breaking the coalition, if the war were to permanently end. In this case, the country would hold new elections and Netanyahu might lose. So, he resumed the war — even though continuing the war defeated the purpose of why it started. The war was launched with the aim of saving the hostages, but Israeli attacks endanger them. The more Gaza is bombed, the more the hostages still held in Gaza are prone to being hit.
For now, his ultimate goal is to keep his partners in the coalition happy, as he needs to survive as long as possible
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Netanyahu is navigating this war with no strategy. His only goal is to survive for another day, as he knows that he may go to jail the day he is out of power. He has so many skeletons. The corruption charges were first, but the second set of charges he faces are over the negligence that led to Oct. 7. However, he is a master of deflection. He is losing the war but he can always find a stunt to boost his approval for a while, like the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July.
He knows what tactics to employ to remain in power. He knows which is the element he most needs to please at a certain moment and who he needs to scapegoat. He knows how to play his allies off against each other to create a balance that ensures he remains on top. For now, his ultimate goal is to keep his partners in the coalition happy, as he needs to survive as long as possible.
Netanyahu is very much like Bashar Assad. The reason they were both able to hold on to power for so long is that there was no graceful exit available. Assad was lucky in that he was able to escape to Russia. But only so far. Russia could always turn him in to Damascus if it would clinch a deal with new Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. For Netanyahu, if he leaves power, he will go to jail. He will have no graceful exit.
There are many similarities between Assad and Netanyahu. Both are political animals solely focused on survival, regardless of what happens to their countries. They are both tactical, pleasing the party they need to stay alive at any particular moment, juggling between allies. The same way Assad played the Russians off against the Iranians, Netanyahu has been able to skillfully balance between the ultra-Orthodox and the far-right groups in his coalition — for now. However, these short-term tactics are not sustainable. In the end, Assad fell, and Netanyahu will too.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.