What the numbers really say about Crisafulli's crime crackdown

Sydney Morning Herald

16 hours ago

During the election campaign, Crisafulli vowed to resign as premier if he didn't reduce the number of victims affected by crime. This, he said, was the metric he should be judged on.
'I'm serious about it, and I'm not giving myself any wriggle room. It's victim numbers.
'It's not number of unique offences and what happens on a Wednesday and how many young people repeat. It's victim numbers. How many people have had their life torn apart? And there will be fewer victims.'
We zoomed in on victim numbers, and found that for six of the 'adult crime, adult time' offences, they have been increasing, comparing just January to March annually, and decreased in 2025, but they're still higher than in 2022.
Looking specifically at robbery and grievous assault on a quarterly basis, victim numbers have fluctuated and had a low point about the start of the pandemic. Despite a recent fall, robbery is still higher than in any quarter between 2001 and 2018.
It's worth noting these victim numbers include victims of adults as well as child offenders.
On May 21, the Crisafulli government added 20 extra offences to the adult crime, adult time framework, including rape and arson.
We analysed statistics for rape and attempted rape, and arson, and found reported offences increased January to March 2022 and 2023, decreased in those months of 2024, but then increased in 2025.
But what does this actually mean?
Hemming says it's crucial to approach the data with caution. He also notes the time lags between arrests and the offender coming before a court.
'However, once the small hardcore group of repeat juvenile offenders begin to be impacted by the 'adult crime, adult time' legislation, there may well be a significant reduction in juvenile crime because 17 per cent of youth offenders commit almost half of all youth crime, and they will be off the streets for a longer period of time,' he says.
Ultimately, Hemming says it's dangerous to predict trends when the factors are so complex and interrelated. He also notes there is ambiguity in the phrase 'victim', as it's unclear if multiple offences against one person should be counted as just one 'victim', or multiple.
Labor recently moved an amendment to the latest youth crime laws, calling for monthly victim and offence data, so Queenslanders did not have to 'rely on inconsistent cherry-picked information through a partisan filter'. This was defeated during the parliamentary debate.
We asked Angela Higginson, a quantitative criminologist and associate professor with QUT, to take look at the numbers for us.
We also asked her if the government was cherry-picking data. She says: 'The simple answer is yes, when data is specifically extracted and used to support a policy position, it is invariably chosen deliberately.'
'This is not unique to the current government, and it is not necessarily deceptive.'
Higginson notes the most important thing to recognise is that all crime statistics are the result of public reporting and police action. Therefore, there is no such thing as a completely neutral crime data source.
Loading
She says data on the number of charges is less useful than other comparisons, given it is a combination of reporting and police action, and so there is a lot of variability.
'This data is possibly the type most likely to be influenced by policy decisions,' she says.
Higginson says a policy focus on the policing of young people not only tends to increase crime numbers, but research tells us that the earlier a young person comes into contact with police, the greater the likelihood of future offending.
She says one of the most obvious external factors to influence crime trends in recent years was the pandemic, but also noted changes in numbers could be policy-driven.