Black Sea CPC Blend daily oil exports set to decline in May, sources say
MOSCOW, May 12 (Reuters) - Black Sea CPC Blend oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system were set at 1.5 million barrels per day (or about 6 million metric tons) for May, down from some 1.6 million barrels per day in April, two industry sources said.
Kazakhstan's energy ministry said on Tuesday it is committed to the OPEC+ agreement and will continue to fulfil all its obligations in order to ensure the stability of the global energy market.
On a daily basis, CPC Blend oil exports in May could fall by about 6% compared to April, Reuters calculations showed. April is one day shorter than May.
CPC does not comment on monthly crude shipments through its system.
The CPC pipeline, which carries more than 80% of all Kazakh oil exports, connects the Tengiz field in western Kazakhstan and a number of others with the CPC marine terminal in Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka near Novorossiisk port.
The shareholders of the CPC are Russia, which owns 31%, Kazakhstan (20,75%), U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab (15%), ExxonMobil subsidiary Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company (7.5%) and other companies.
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OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
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There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. 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IEA says it stands ready to tap emergency oil stocks, OPEC sees no need
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