Big disruption to oil supply unlikely after Israel's attack on Iran, say analysts
June 13 (Reuters) - Israel's attack on Iran is unlikely to cause a major disruption to oil supply, analysts at two major banks said, but a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs said.
Oil prices climbed nearly 9% after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading near $74.74 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook, but "we still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East," the bank said in a note Friday.
The bank continues to forecast "that strong supply growth outside U.S. shale will reduce Brent and WTI oil prices to $59/55 in 2025Q4 and $56/52 in 2026."
Analysts at Citi also said that supply disruptions should be limited, adding that while heightened geopolitical tensions may linger, energy prices are unlikely to stay elevated for a sustained period.
Commerzbank said a further rise in oil prices would depend on supply risks in the event of an escalation, adding that prices are unlikely to fall below $70 for the time being.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais also said the escalation does not justify any immediate changes to supply, as current conditions remain stable.
One of the risk factors the market is considering is a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a sea corridor through which around a fifth of the world's total oil consumption travels.
While an interruption is unlikely, the strait remains in focus because it may prevent core OPEC+ producers from deploying spare capacity, Goldman Sachs said, adding that in an extreme scenario involving an extended disruption, prices could even top $100 a barrel.
JP Morgan had, in a note dated Thursday, said certain worst-case scenarios in the Middle East could send oil to $120–130 a barrel.
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