Consumers in crossfire despite US-China trade war truce
Consumer confidence is improving, but Australians have been urged to temper their expectations after the treasurer noted the limits of a US-China trade truce.
Both nations have agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the United States committing to dropping 145 per cent levies on China to 30 per cent and Beijing lowering its 125 per cent duties on American imports to 10 per cent.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the development but noted many issues remained unresolved.
"Australia has got a lot to lose from a trade war between the US and China in particular, so we want to see these trade tensions de-escalated permanently, not temporarily," he told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, unpredictability, and volatility in the global economy."
However, consumer sentiment rebounded in May as markets recovered from the US 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index published on Tuesday.
"Consumer sentiment has recovered just over a third of last month's tariff-related fall, buoyed by a rebound in financial markets and a clear-cut federal election result," Westpac chief economist Matthew Hassan said.
The index rose 2.2 per cent in May to 92.1 points, from 90.1 in April.
"That said, the index is still 3.9 per cent below its March level and in 'firmly pessimistic' territory overall," Mr Hassan said.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy briefed Dr Chalmers on May 4 - the morning after Labor's election victory - telling him that the global economy had deteriorated since President Donald Trump began his punitive tariffs regime on US trading partners in March.
He told the treasurer that while Australia had fairly strong economic fundamentals, it would not be immune from the trade conflict.
Australia was well-placed and well-prepared to deal with the fallout, Dr Chalmers said, but he acknowledged "we do have a lot of skin in the game".
"We welcome the announcement ... but we're not getting carried away," he said.
The US has imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on many Australian imported goods, as well as a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium.
While the treasurer has not had contact with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent since the election, Dr Chalmers said there would be opportunities to engage with his counterpart.
Dr Chalmers also said Australia was entering "a period of global dislocation not seen since World War II".
"Our people are still under pressure and the headwinds in the global economy are picking up at a rate of knots," he said.
Wages and labour force data to be released this week might guide the Reserve Bank of Australia's next interest rate decision on May 20.
Economists widely predict the RBA will shave another 0.25 per cent off the cash rate after announcing its first cut in more than four years in February.
Data released on April 30 revealed Australia's headline inflation was at 2.4 per cent in the year to March, down from as high as 7.8 per cent in December 2022.
Dr Chalmers has often referred to Australia's "soft landing" from those heights, pointing to the increased real wages and low unemployment achieved simultaneously to lowering inflation.
"This is an enviable position for our economy to be in - unique when we look around the world and compare ourselves to history, and defying the economic orthodoxy," he said.
"We know the job isn't finished and we know we will be faced with more global economic volatility and unpredictability over the next three years, not less."
Consumer confidence is improving, but Australians have been urged to temper their expectations after the treasurer noted the limits of a US-China trade truce.
Both nations have agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the United States committing to dropping 145 per cent levies on China to 30 per cent and Beijing lowering its 125 per cent duties on American imports to 10 per cent.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the development but noted many issues remained unresolved.
"Australia has got a lot to lose from a trade war between the US and China in particular, so we want to see these trade tensions de-escalated permanently, not temporarily," he told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, unpredictability, and volatility in the global economy."
However, consumer sentiment rebounded in May as markets recovered from the US 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index published on Tuesday.
"Consumer sentiment has recovered just over a third of last month's tariff-related fall, buoyed by a rebound in financial markets and a clear-cut federal election result," Westpac chief economist Matthew Hassan said.
The index rose 2.2 per cent in May to 92.1 points, from 90.1 in April.
"That said, the index is still 3.9 per cent below its March level and in 'firmly pessimistic' territory overall," Mr Hassan said.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy briefed Dr Chalmers on May 4 - the morning after Labor's election victory - telling him that the global economy had deteriorated since President Donald Trump began his punitive tariffs regime on US trading partners in March.
He told the treasurer that while Australia had fairly strong economic fundamentals, it would not be immune from the trade conflict.
Australia was well-placed and well-prepared to deal with the fallout, Dr Chalmers said, but he acknowledged "we do have a lot of skin in the game".
"We welcome the announcement ... but we're not getting carried away," he said.
The US has imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on many Australian imported goods, as well as a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium.
While the treasurer has not had contact with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent since the election, Dr Chalmers said there would be opportunities to engage with his counterpart.
Dr Chalmers also said Australia was entering "a period of global dislocation not seen since World War II".
"Our people are still under pressure and the headwinds in the global economy are picking up at a rate of knots," he said.
Wages and labour force data to be released this week might guide the Reserve Bank of Australia's next interest rate decision on May 20.
Economists widely predict the RBA will shave another 0.25 per cent off the cash rate after announcing its first cut in more than four years in February.
Data released on April 30 revealed Australia's headline inflation was at 2.4 per cent in the year to March, down from as high as 7.8 per cent in December 2022.
Dr Chalmers has often referred to Australia's "soft landing" from those heights, pointing to the increased real wages and low unemployment achieved simultaneously to lowering inflation.
"This is an enviable position for our economy to be in - unique when we look around the world and compare ourselves to history, and defying the economic orthodoxy," he said.
"We know the job isn't finished and we know we will be faced with more global economic volatility and unpredictability over the next three years, not less."
Consumer confidence is improving, but Australians have been urged to temper their expectations after the treasurer noted the limits of a US-China trade truce.
Both nations have agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the United States committing to dropping 145 per cent levies on China to 30 per cent and Beijing lowering its 125 per cent duties on American imports to 10 per cent.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the development but noted many issues remained unresolved.
"Australia has got a lot to lose from a trade war between the US and China in particular, so we want to see these trade tensions de-escalated permanently, not temporarily," he told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, unpredictability, and volatility in the global economy."
However, consumer sentiment rebounded in May as markets recovered from the US 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index published on Tuesday.
"Consumer sentiment has recovered just over a third of last month's tariff-related fall, buoyed by a rebound in financial markets and a clear-cut federal election result," Westpac chief economist Matthew Hassan said.
The index rose 2.2 per cent in May to 92.1 points, from 90.1 in April.
"That said, the index is still 3.9 per cent below its March level and in 'firmly pessimistic' territory overall," Mr Hassan said.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy briefed Dr Chalmers on May 4 - the morning after Labor's election victory - telling him that the global economy had deteriorated since President Donald Trump began his punitive tariffs regime on US trading partners in March.
He told the treasurer that while Australia had fairly strong economic fundamentals, it would not be immune from the trade conflict.
Australia was well-placed and well-prepared to deal with the fallout, Dr Chalmers said, but he acknowledged "we do have a lot of skin in the game".
"We welcome the announcement ... but we're not getting carried away," he said.
The US has imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on many Australian imported goods, as well as a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium.
While the treasurer has not had contact with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent since the election, Dr Chalmers said there would be opportunities to engage with his counterpart.
Dr Chalmers also said Australia was entering "a period of global dislocation not seen since World War II".
"Our people are still under pressure and the headwinds in the global economy are picking up at a rate of knots," he said.
Wages and labour force data to be released this week might guide the Reserve Bank of Australia's next interest rate decision on May 20.
Economists widely predict the RBA will shave another 0.25 per cent off the cash rate after announcing its first cut in more than four years in February.
Data released on April 30 revealed Australia's headline inflation was at 2.4 per cent in the year to March, down from as high as 7.8 per cent in December 2022.
Dr Chalmers has often referred to Australia's "soft landing" from those heights, pointing to the increased real wages and low unemployment achieved simultaneously to lowering inflation.
"This is an enviable position for our economy to be in - unique when we look around the world and compare ourselves to history, and defying the economic orthodoxy," he said.
"We know the job isn't finished and we know we will be faced with more global economic volatility and unpredictability over the next three years, not less."
Consumer confidence is improving, but Australians have been urged to temper their expectations after the treasurer noted the limits of a US-China trade truce.
Both nations have agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with the United States committing to dropping 145 per cent levies on China to 30 per cent and Beijing lowering its 125 per cent duties on American imports to 10 per cent.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the development but noted many issues remained unresolved.
"Australia has got a lot to lose from a trade war between the US and China in particular, so we want to see these trade tensions de-escalated permanently, not temporarily," he told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, unpredictability, and volatility in the global economy."
However, consumer sentiment rebounded in May as markets recovered from the US 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index published on Tuesday.
"Consumer sentiment has recovered just over a third of last month's tariff-related fall, buoyed by a rebound in financial markets and a clear-cut federal election result," Westpac chief economist Matthew Hassan said.
The index rose 2.2 per cent in May to 92.1 points, from 90.1 in April.
"That said, the index is still 3.9 per cent below its March level and in 'firmly pessimistic' territory overall," Mr Hassan said.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy briefed Dr Chalmers on May 4 - the morning after Labor's election victory - telling him that the global economy had deteriorated since President Donald Trump began his punitive tariffs regime on US trading partners in March.
He told the treasurer that while Australia had fairly strong economic fundamentals, it would not be immune from the trade conflict.
Australia was well-placed and well-prepared to deal with the fallout, Dr Chalmers said, but he acknowledged "we do have a lot of skin in the game".
"We welcome the announcement ... but we're not getting carried away," he said.
The US has imposed a 10 per cent baseline tariff on many Australian imported goods, as well as a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium.
While the treasurer has not had contact with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent since the election, Dr Chalmers said there would be opportunities to engage with his counterpart.
Dr Chalmers also said Australia was entering "a period of global dislocation not seen since World War II".
"Our people are still under pressure and the headwinds in the global economy are picking up at a rate of knots," he said.
Wages and labour force data to be released this week might guide the Reserve Bank of Australia's next interest rate decision on May 20.
Economists widely predict the RBA will shave another 0.25 per cent off the cash rate after announcing its first cut in more than four years in February.
Data released on April 30 revealed Australia's headline inflation was at 2.4 per cent in the year to March, down from as high as 7.8 per cent in December 2022.
Dr Chalmers has often referred to Australia's "soft landing" from those heights, pointing to the increased real wages and low unemployment achieved simultaneously to lowering inflation.
"This is an enviable position for our economy to be in - unique when we look around the world and compare ourselves to history, and defying the economic orthodoxy," he said.
"We know the job isn't finished and we know we will be faced with more global economic volatility and unpredictability over the next three years, not less."
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Progress on the high seas treaty has also been achieved at the third UN Ocean Conference, with French President Emmanuel Macron expecting the 60 necessary ratifications to come through in time for the agreement to come into force by January 2026. Australia has made ratification a priority when parliament returns. Once in force, the pact will allow the creation of marine parks in international waters, key to supporting biodiversity and healthy fish stocks. Senator Watt has also reiterated the government's commitment to classifying 30 per cent of Australian waters as "highly protected areas" by 2030. A sizeable 44 per cent is classified as marine parks but not all those zones are fully protected from fishing and industrial activity. Seafood Industry Australia chief executive officer Veronica Papacosta says the domestic industry is across Australia's 30 x 30 ocean protection commitment and has been working constructively with government. 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There have been some successes, including widespread bans on lightweight plastic shopping bags, but a 2024 policy assessment concluded more needed to be done. Progress on the high seas treaty has also been achieved at the third UN Ocean Conference, with French President Emmanuel Macron expecting the 60 necessary ratifications to come through in time for the agreement to come into force by January 2026. Australia has made ratification a priority when parliament returns. Once in force, the pact will allow the creation of marine parks in international waters, key to supporting biodiversity and healthy fish stocks. Senator Watt has also reiterated the government's commitment to classifying 30 per cent of Australian waters as "highly protected areas" by 2030. A sizeable 44 per cent is classified as marine parks but not all those zones are fully protected from fishing and industrial activity. Seafood Industry Australia chief executive officer Veronica Papacosta says the domestic industry is across Australia's 30 x 30 ocean protection commitment and has been working constructively with government. "We need to make sure the ocean is protected, we only want sustainable use of the ocean," she told AAP. But she favoured a nuanced conversation based on the latest thinking on habitat protection and sustainable fishing practices. "The time we start getting stressed is when marine parks start getting used as an anti-fishing campaign because that's not what they should be nor what they're originally designed to do," she said. Australia has thrown its support behind a declaration to curb plastic pollution fast and deliver on a global treaty targeting waste at the source. More than 90 countries have backed "the Nice wake-up call for an ambitious plastics treaty" at the United Nations Ocean Conference, which has taken place in the French Mediterranean coast city over the past week. Plastic waste is projected to outweigh all fish by 2050 and is particularly harmful to seabirds and marine animals that ingest it, both in large pieces and as it breaks down into microplastics. The tiny plastic particles have now found their way into the food chain, with exposure linked to endocrine disorders and cardiovascular problems. A global agreement to reduce both the manufacture and consumption of plastic has been in the works since a 2022 but progress has been stalled by oil-producing nations pushing for more flexibility on production limits. The show of support at the major ocean conference lands ahead of another round of negotiations in Geneva in August. Federal Environment Minister Murray Watt says it's important to tackle the plastic problem across the full life cycle. "In our Pacific region, including on Australia's coastline and offshore territories, we see the impacts of globally mismanaged plastics which are killing marine life and washing up on shore," he said in a statement. Australia has a commitment to phasing out "problematic and unnecessary" plastics. There have been some successes, including widespread bans on lightweight plastic shopping bags, but a 2024 policy assessment concluded more needed to be done. Progress on the high seas treaty has also been achieved at the third UN Ocean Conference, with French President Emmanuel Macron expecting the 60 necessary ratifications to come through in time for the agreement to come into force by January 2026. Australia has made ratification a priority when parliament returns. Once in force, the pact will allow the creation of marine parks in international waters, key to supporting biodiversity and healthy fish stocks. Senator Watt has also reiterated the government's commitment to classifying 30 per cent of Australian waters as "highly protected areas" by 2030. A sizeable 44 per cent is classified as marine parks but not all those zones are fully protected from fishing and industrial activity. Seafood Industry Australia chief executive officer Veronica Papacosta says the domestic industry is across Australia's 30 x 30 ocean protection commitment and has been working constructively with government. "We need to make sure the ocean is protected, we only want sustainable use of the ocean," she told AAP. But she favoured a nuanced conversation based on the latest thinking on habitat protection and sustainable fishing practices. "The time we start getting stressed is when marine parks start getting used as an anti-fishing campaign because that's not what they should be nor what they're originally designed to do," she said.
