New studies point to increasing risk of loss from wind, rain during hurricanes
The damaged remains of J.C. Allen's home in Bayou Dularge on Sept. 12, 2024, one day after Hurricane Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish. (Wes Muller/Louisiana Illuminator)
As hurricane season begins June 1, new studies point to an increasing risk of loss from severe wind and water damage common during these intense storms.
Published in the Society for Risk Analysis' journal, a study by University of Illinois researcher and civil engineer Eun Jeong Cha predicts the risk of loss from hurricane-related winds could increase up to 76% as soon as 2060 for states in the Southeast, including Louisiana.
'These states experience the highest hurricane activity and associated wind-related losses in the U.S.,' Cha said in a news release. 'They represent a critical region for understanding how climate change may alter hurricane risk.'
While much of the damage from storms is caused by water, over 40% of residential storm-related losses from hurricanes are attributed to heavy winds, costing the U.S. economy an expected $14 billion annually, according to a 2019 Congressional Budget Office report.
Cha and her colleague, Chi-Ying Lin, used artificial intelligence to simulate a 'worst-case' scenario of how a hurricane – supercharged by warming oceans and global climate change – would affect a single family wood-framed home with concrete masonry.
'We view it as a stress-test scenario for hurricane wind risk,' Cha said, explaining the worst-case scenario can help communities prepare for the most severe storm, even if reality is less impactful.
Her model is based on a predicted future with maximum fossil fuel emissions and no policy to mitigate the effects of climate change, as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations offshoot. The scenario would see an increase in the global average temperature of at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2065.
Over time, the hurricane damage risk increases even more, with a 102% higher chance of storm-related loss in 2100 should the global average temperature increase the anticipated 6.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
Cha said studies like hers do more than just spread alarm and awareness. Understanding how future risk increases can help experts understand how to build resiliency into communities, 'providing valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and the insurance industry.'
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