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Axios
a day ago
- Climate
- Axios
What's new this year from NOAA for hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center will release forecasts and tracks for some storms further in advance than last year, the National Weather Service says. Why it matters: It's one of several changes residents can expect during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The big picture: Meteorologists have been releasing tracks 48 hours before storms are expected to reach land, even if they haven't formed yet. Beginning this year, the National Hurricane Center will be able to extend that to 72 hours for potential storms, said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service. "To get an extra 24 hours on your timeline? Think what you can do in 24 hours," he told Axios in an exclusive interview. "An extra 24 hours is an eternity." For instance, municipalities could use that extra time to issue evacuation orders, move supplies and make emergency plans, among other things, he said. Between the lines: This is becoming more important as the trend continues for rapidly intensifying storms. "The strongest storms are the ones that develop the fastest," Graham said at a press conference in Gretna. Threat level: The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, NOAA says, with 13 to 19 named storms. Three to five of those could be a Category 3 hurricane or stronger, NOAA said in its forecast last week. The season is not expected to be as active as last year's, which brought destruction from Hurricanes Helene, Milton, Debby and Francine, but as Graham says, it only takes one storm to hit where you are. The forecast predicts overall activity, not how many storms may make landfall. New forecast tools NOAA, the parent agency for the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, is also rolling out new tools to help residents better understand their risks this season. New cone: The National Hurricane Center will continue testing a version of the storm cone that includes inland warnings. The experiment went well last year, Graham said, and they are continuing to tweak it. While the old cone only showed storm watches and warnings along the coast, the new one goes inland and gives a better depiction of where the threats are. Inundation mapping: NOAA is in the process of mapping the entire country so it'll be able to help residents visualize what a rain and flood forecast will look like in their area. Nashville was a pilot market last year, Graham said, and it led to a hospital being evacuated before it flooded during Hurricane Helene. More markets will be added this year, but he didn't say which ones. The nearly $500 million project should be fully rolled out next year. The NHC will continue to issue storm surge inundation graphics this hurricane season for each storm. Rip currents: The National Hurricane Center will issue new rip current risk maps when there's at least one tropical system present. There's been an increase in surf and rip current fatalities, NHC says, especially from swells caused by distant hurricanes. The maps will show the rip current risk for the day of and the following day. Behind the scenes: NOAA is also upgrading its hurricane forecast system, which is expected to improve tracking and intensity forecasts by 5%. And, its long-range tropical outlook is being extended from two weeks to three weeks, giving folks even more advance warning that something may be brewing. What we're watching: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts Sunday, June 1, but storms can form any time. NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busy: How that could impact Tennessee
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, and like in 2024, we could see impacts here in Tennessee. The Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1st to November 30th. During the typical season, there are 14 named storms, with seven of those strengthening to a hurricane, and three of them becoming major hurricanes. Want the forecast delivered directly to your inbox? Sign up for the News 2 Forecast Newsletter The forecast from NOAA is for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of those hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Remember, a storm gets named when it reaches a minimum tropical storm strength. That means it has sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. Hurricanes have winds over 74 mph, and major hurricanes have winds over 111 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This means the wind speed of the storm determines the category. The scale goes from category 1 to 5. NOAA says there are a couple of factors that caused them to forecast an active season. They said the neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can lead to an increase in storms in the Atlantic. ENSO is the ocean current in the southern Pacific Ocean, and it can impact the Atlantic Hurricane season as well as our weather during the winter. RADAR | Track weather across TN live The other reason they are forecasting an active hurricane season is that the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and the Atlantic are warmer than normal. Warm sea surface temperatures are what help fuel hurricanes. Above normal activity has been common over the last several years. Eight out of the last 10 years have seen 15 or more named storms, and in 2020, we saw the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 30 storms! In the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there were 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes, and 5 strengthened to major hurricanes. Last hurricane season, we saw impacts from 3 hurricanes here in Tennessee. The biggest impacts came from Hurricane Helene, with the historic/devastating flooding in East Tennessee. Hurricane Francine brought heavy rain and a low tornado threat to middle Tennessee. Hurricane Beryl caused tornadoes in Arkansas and heavy rain in West Tennessee. It's rare to see impacts from three hurricanes in Tennessee, but with the active forecast, we could see tropical impacts this year. ⏩ The main threats from hurricanes here in Tennessee are flooding and tornadoes. By the time hurricanes reach the Volunteer State, they are typically weakened to just tropical depression strength. This means damaging winds aren't a threat like they are when they first make landfall. During the months of August, September, and October, tornadoes are extremely rare in Tennessee, but if we see the remnants of a hurricane, we can get tornadoes. They are typically weak, short-lived tornadoes of EF-0 or EF-1 strength. Here is a list of the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
New studies point to increasing risk of loss from wind, rain during hurricanes
The damaged remains of J.C. Allen's home in Bayou Dularge on Sept. 12, 2024, one day after Hurricane Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish. (Wes Muller/Louisiana Illuminator) As hurricane season begins June 1, new studies point to an increasing risk of loss from severe wind and water damage common during these intense storms. Published in the Society for Risk Analysis' journal, a study by University of Illinois researcher and civil engineer Eun Jeong Cha predicts the risk of loss from hurricane-related winds could increase up to 76% as soon as 2060 for states in the Southeast, including Louisiana. 'These states experience the highest hurricane activity and associated wind-related losses in the U.S.,' Cha said in a news release. 'They represent a critical region for understanding how climate change may alter hurricane risk.' While much of the damage from storms is caused by water, over 40% of residential storm-related losses from hurricanes are attributed to heavy winds, costing the U.S. economy an expected $14 billion annually, according to a 2019 Congressional Budget Office report. Cha and her colleague, Chi-Ying Lin, used artificial intelligence to simulate a 'worst-case' scenario of how a hurricane – supercharged by warming oceans and global climate change – would affect a single family wood-framed home with concrete masonry. 'We view it as a stress-test scenario for hurricane wind risk,' Cha said, explaining the worst-case scenario can help communities prepare for the most severe storm, even if reality is less impactful. Her model is based on a predicted future with maximum fossil fuel emissions and no policy to mitigate the effects of climate change, as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations offshoot. The scenario would see an increase in the global average temperature of at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2065. Over time, the hurricane damage risk increases even more, with a 102% higher chance of storm-related loss in 2100 should the global average temperature increase the anticipated 6.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Cha said studies like hers do more than just spread alarm and awareness. Understanding how future risk increases can help experts understand how to build resiliency into communities, 'providing valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and the insurance industry.'
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA predicts above average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for the 2025 Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season. They are forecasting above-average activity We are now 10 days away from the start of the 2025 hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here is a look at the forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. Last year, forecasters were also predicting an above-average season, but not record-setting. Here is a look at the Saphir Simpson Scale. Here is a look at the most active seasons compared to the 2024 season. Note that TS stands for Tropical Storm, TD stands for Tropical Depression, Here is a look at last year's forecast and the actual numbers. Forecasters were slightly off on total storms but spot on on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes in the Atlantic. Even though the 2024 season was not as active as some, it still had significant regional impacts. Let's go back and take a look at the 2024 season. Here is a look at the tracks of all the named storms from the 2024 season. The 2024 season started slowly in early June, but Hurricane Beryl formed in the Atlantic in late June and early July. Hurricane Beryl broke the record for the earliest category five storm recorded in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA, Beryl made landfall in Carriacou, Grenada, as a Category 4 storm. When it reached the Yucatan Peninsula and then tracked towards the Texas coastline, Beryl had weakened. As a Category 1 storm, Beryl made landfall in Texas. Beryle is now a retired name. There were 14 direct deaths in the United States from Beryl. The next storm to impact the United States was Hurricane Debby. Hurricane Debby was the second storm in less than a year to impact the Big Bend of Florida. Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1 storm. Debby continued its track along the eastern coastline, impacting the Carolinas and the New England states. According to NOAA, Debby was responsible for 17 deaths in the United States. Later in September, the Hurricane season started to pick up. Hurricane Francine formed on September 9th and made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Louisiana on September 11th. Francine marked the 3rd hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf Coast in 2024. Later in September, Hurricane Helene formed. It tracked along Florida's west coast and made landfall as a Category 4 storm, causing impacts again in the Big Bend. After crossing Florida, it would travel to the Appalachian Mountains, bringing historic flooding and record rainfall. Buisk, North Carolina, received almost 31 inches of rainfall, while most of the Blue Ridge Parkway experienced between 20 and 30 inches of rainfall and hurricane-force winds. Over 1000 landslides were reported by the USGS in the Appalachian Mountains. Over 200 deaths were reported from Helene, with most of the deaths occurring in the mountains of North Carolina. Millions were also without power, and thousands were without cell service after Hurricane Helene. Helene is now one of the most deadly and costly hurricanes on record, and the name Helene has been retired. The last Hurricane to bring impacts to the United States was Milton. Milton was the strongest storm of the season based on pressure and is now one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Milton formed in the Gulf and quickly strengthened into a strong Category 5 storm, weakening to a Category 3 storm by the time it made landfall along the west coast of Florida. According to NOAA, 12 people died from Hurricane Milton in the United States. The last storm of the season was Tropical Storm Sara on November 18th. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Electric bills are rising while pathways for aid are threatened at state, federal level
A utility crew restores power at a New Orleans intersection after Hurricane Francine in September 2024. (John Gray/Verite News) NEW ORLEANS – The recent end to a state-led energy efficiency program combined with massive layoffs last month at the federal agency that provides electric bill assistance to low-income households have residents of greater New Orleans worried about how they are going to cool their homes during the hottest months of the year. The Louisiana Public Service Commission, which regulates electric utilities for most of the state, eliminated an energy efficiency program that it had been working on for over a decade in mid-April. In early April, the Trump administration fired all of the Low Income Energy Assistance Program's staff, leaving the future of the program in jeopardy. Without state-level plans to increase energy assistance, spending on electricity will probably rise, experts said. And with LIHEAP in the lurch, people might not be able to access assistance they need to pay those high bills. Logan Burke, the executive director of the Alliance for Affordable Energy called the LIHEAP cuts 'outrageous,' especially because there are already few avenues for energy bill assistance. Burke said that Louisiana spent 7% of its LIHEAP funds on weatherizing homes last year, and that if LIHEAP doesn't continue, then there will be no low-income weatherization or efficiency programs in the state. 'The problem here is that those are the minimal backstops that people have depended on for decades — the LIHEAP dollars — both for bill assistance and weatherization of housing, and without them, we simply lose billions of dollars of bill assistance and efficiency upgrades in low income housing,' Burke said. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX Local LIHEAP administrators are silent on how the layoffs will affect residents or the future funding. The Louisiana Housing Corporation — which is in charge of distributing funds to parish organizations that then go through applications and work with residents to provide aid — did not respond to phone calls. Neither did JeffCAP, Jefferson Parish's LIHEAP distributor, or Total Community Action in New Orleans. Even though the average unit cost of electricity is lower in Louisiana than much of the rest of the country, Louisianians use the highest amounts, leading to high bills, said Logan Burke, executive director of the Alliance for Affordable Energy, and average rates have only been increasing in recent years. Between 2018 and 2024, the base rate for energy bills in Louisiana increased 40%, and is expected to increase 30% in the next 15 years, according to analysis from the financial consulting firm BAI Group. Extreme weather, old housing infrastructure and Louisiana's reliance on natural gas, a volatile market, are all partly responsible for the high prices, experts said. 'A lot of our housing stock is old and simply isn't good at retaining heated and cooled air,' Burke said. 'So a lot of our energy is just wasted around leaks and cracks around our windows and doors.' For the past 14 years, the Louisiana Public Service Commission had been working on an energy efficiency program that would have helped residents identify ways to consume less energy by making every unit of power go further — through renovations such as increased insulation in homes or upgraded thermostats, Burke said. But the commission abruptly voted to dissolve the program less than a month before contractors were slated to report to the commission about how the program would work. Republican commissioners said the administrative costs of the program would be too high. The decision frustrated residents of the greater New Orleans area who struggle to pay their energy bills and were looking for state support to lower costs. 'Because if you go around sealing up all these cracks and holes in these old houses, don't you think now they're going to use less to heat and cool their homes?' said Dorginia Lucas, a Metairie resident. 'That's why I would drop it too if I was them. 'Why would I help you lower your bill?' That's how I look at it.' Lucas said she has been working since 14 years old, but still struggles to pay her utility bills, which range between $249 to $440. She said dealing with Entergy's billing system is frustrating and overwhelming. A recent report by the Louisiana Association of United Ways, a coalition of nonprofits that connect residents with health and financial aid resources, found that wages haven't been increasing at the same rate as basic necessities in recent years, making household costs difficult to cover, even in families with steady incomes. And utility assistance has been one of the most sought-after aid requests over the past decade in Orleans Parish (with an exception in 2021 after Hurricane Ida), according to caller data from counseling service center Vialink. Entergy distributes funds to nonprofits for its utility assistance program, 'The Power to Care,' that aids seniors and people with disabilities. The New Orleans Council on Aging distributes those funds to residents in Orleans Parish. Howard Rodgers, the executive director of the New Orleans Council on Aging, said there is a 'tremendous need' for assistance paying utility bills in the city. Rodgers said seniors particularly need assistance because they might rely on benefits and need to pay for medication, which might lead them to deprioritize utility payments to the detriment of their health. The New Orleans Council on Aging helps around 10,000 to 15,000 people every year through 'The Power to Care' program, Rodgers said, and most funds come from charitable donations that Entergy matches. But the program has also changed in recent years. Due to high demand, the Council on Aging no longer accepts walk-ins for utility bill assistance. Additionally, those seeking help have a $500 cap on assistance every year. Rodgers said this allows the council to provide assistance to more people. That might not go too far for many residents. A 2023 Verite News analysis found that the average Entergy bill in New Orleans was $179 in 2022. And consumer advocates worry that the situation could get worse. Last year, the New Orleans City Council voted to approve the sale of Entergy New Orleans's gas business utility to a company backed by private equity. Energy advocates and community members spoke out against the sale, saying that it might increase rates for energy users. Louisiana's investments in exporting liquified natural gas abroad could also lead to higher energy costs at home, according to a Department of Energy report from last September. Jannie Yarbrough, a retired New Orleans resident, said she lives alone and pays around $185 to $200 per month, a squeeze on fixed retirement income. Yarbrough said the city and state could be doing more to lower energy costs. Yarbough said she could ask her daughter to help out, but doesn't want to depend on her. 'I'm blessed that I have a daughter that could pay, but I'm not trying to depend on my child,' Yarbrough said. Despite the rising costs of gas, public assistance pathways for utility payments are also dwindling at the local level. Last July, the city's Office of Community Development shuttered its emergency rental and utility assistance program after four years. The office didn't respond to requests for comment. Entergy has its own energy efficiency program, but it still gets paid for funds it may lose from lower energy energy consumption — a program called 'Quick Start,' according to the Alliance for Affordable Energy. Quick Start will expire at the end of the year, and on May 19 the Louisiana Public Service Commission voted to initiate a three month process to look at and make changes to the program and another that helps public entities with energy efficiency. Under an independent, state-run energy efficiency program, Entergy wouldn't be able to earn back potential profits it lost from energy efficiency upgrades. Rodgers said the Council on Aging is anticipating a higher demand for utility assistance since the LIHEAP layoffs. He said he has already spoken to Entergy employees about the possibility of the end of LIHEAP. An Entergy New Orleans spokesperson did not respond to questions about if and how assistance pathways might change if LIHEAP ended, but said the company's rates are consistently below the national average and that customers can contact the utility for bill management resources. 'We won't know what to do until it happens,' Rodgers said. 'We can think about it, plan for it, but then we are just going to have to be reactionary when that happens.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX This article first appeared on Verite News New Orleans and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
