Witkoff heads to Russia as Trump's sanctions threat looms

CNN

a day ago

President Donald Trump's trusted foreign envoy Steve Witkoff is due in Moscow on Wednesday after the Kremlin requested a meeting with him in a last-ditch effort to avoid the punishing new sanctions Trump has threatened to impose this week, people familiar with the matter said.
He's set to meet Russian officials — including potential talks with President Vladimir Putin — amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
Whether Putin can convince Witkoff — and, by extension, Trump — that he is interested in ending the war is an open question. Trump has cast doubt on Putin's willingness to stop the fighting and appears wary of being strung along by a leader he now openly distrusts.
Putin, meanwhile, has maintained his maximalist ambitions for the conflict, including capturing the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and insisting Ukraine limit the size of its military.
Trump said a day ahead of Witkoff's meeting he would wait until the talks conclude to decide whether to impose the new sanctions.
'We have a meeting with Russia tomorrow. We're going to see what happens,' he said at the White House. 'We'll make that determination at that time.'
When Witkoff lands in Moscow, the environment will be far different than the last time he sat down with Putin in April — with Trump's frustration toward his Russian counterpart mounting in recent months. Since the April meeting, Russia has resisted US-led efforts to broker a peace in Ukraine, ramping up an onslaught of missiles and drones that have targeted Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv.
A day ahead of Witkoff's visit, Trump spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss potential sanctions on Moscow, according to people familiar with the conversation. In a readout of the meeting posted on social media, Zelensky said those sanctions could 'change a lot' when it comes to the Russian economy.
Zelensky also said they discussed the increase of American weapons support to Ukraine, paid for by NATO allies, a policy Trump green-lit last month.
The US president has grown increasingly impatient at Russia's resistance to his peace efforts, calling the air attacks 'disgusting' and accusing Putin of peddling 'bullsh*t' in their tense phone conversations.
He has set a Friday deadline for Russia to either agree to a peace deal or suffer new sanctions, including on its own economy and on purchasers of its energy products. Trump truncated his original 50-day timeline after seeing little movement from Russia. Yet he has also cast doubt that any new sanctions will prove effective after Moscow found ways to skirt the heaps of western measures applied since the war began.
'There'll be sanctions, but they seem to be pretty good at avoiding sanctions,' Trump said Sunday. 'You know, they're wily characters, and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions. So we'll see what happens.'
Trump also announced late last week that he was ordering the repositioning of two US nuclear submarines in an effort to be 'prepared' – a response to inflammatory remarks by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former president and current deputy chairman of its security council.
But even Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after those comments that Medvedev was not a relevant player and explained that his remarks were unlikely to 'be a factor one way or another.'
Some Europeans officials viewed Trump's announcement as a possible effort to highlight US nuclear capabilities in preparation for Witkoff's visit, two sources told CNN. It remains unclear if the US actually repositioned any of its nuclear submarines.
Trump has threatened two distinct types of measures should Moscow not reach Friday's deadline for peace. He has said he'll apply new sanctions on Russian imports to the US, which would have minimal impact given the near-stoppage in trade between the two countries since the start of the war.
Trump has also promised 'secondary tariffs' on countries that import Russian energy — which would include China and India, the country's largest energy customers. That could potentially do more to cut off funding for Russia's war machine.
'Is August 8 an actual deadline or part of Trump's approach, which often involves manufacturing leverage points, and then determining how to use them?' said one US official. 'It is not real until Trump decides it is, which is based on a number of unidentified variables.'
There have been active efforts to draw up those possible secondary sanctions in recent weeks, US officials said, adding that they believe that Trump's frustration with Putin is so intense that he might green light those measures. But Trump is also likely to back down if Russia makes a substantive offer, sources said.
'These are gut feelings for him,' said one source close to the White House. 'It depends how he can sell it to his base.'
The US and its western allies have taken numerous steps to try stifling Moscow's energy revenues, including applying a price cap on Russian crude. But so far, it hasn't caused Putin to change course. And Russia has been able to evade some of the measures on its energy products by using a 'shadow fleet' of tankers, whose ownership is hidden, to sell to China and India.
Trump said that could change if the price of Russian oil drops significantly.
'Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He's going to have no choice because his economy stinks,' the president said in a Tuesday telephone interview on CNBC.
Russia's economy has seen recent signs of weakness, including rampant inflation and higher food costs, as the weight of the three-and-a-half year war begins to take more of an effect.
Trump has already said he'll apply a substantial tariff hike on India for its Russian energy purchases as he simultaneously works to extract concessions from New Delhi on a trade deal.
'They're fueling the war machine, and if they're going to do that, then I'm not going to be happy,' Trump told CNBC.
India has argued its Russian energy purchases have stabilized the global oil market.
It's less clear how intent Trump is on applying new measures on China for its Russian energy purchases. He remains on the hunt for a comprehensive trade agreement with Beijing, and US officials have described making significant progress in recent talks with their Chinese counterparts. Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent directly told his Chinese counterparts during trade talks in Stockholm last month that they should be ready for sanctions if they continue to buy Russian oil.
Putin and China's President Xi Jinping have also deepened their relationship in recent years, and Chinese support for Russia's war efforts extends well beyond energy purchases. China has provided Russia with components for its weapons and drones used to attack Ukraine.
Putin and Xi are expected to meet in Beijing at the start of September around a commemoration ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
In recent months, Witkoff played a less active role in the Ukraine war talks due to Russia's refusal to take substantial steps to drive an end to the conflict.
During that time, Trump and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg maintained regular communications with the Ukrainians, with Kellogg visiting Kyiv last month.
Trump also began to change his tone on Ukraine, saying it needs the ability to defend itself.
But with Witkoff visiting Russia again for the first time in months, there is a renewed spotlight on his role. Earlier this year, there were concerns among US officials and Russia experts about the real estate developer's diplomatic inexperience, particularly after he went into multiple early meetings with Putin without a US translator by his side.
After his last meeting with Putin, Witkoff predicted the Russian leader 'sees the opportunity for the first time in decades' to recalibrate the US-Russia relationship — though months later the war is ongoing and US-Russia relations have not improved.
Still, even as talks with Russia took a backseat in recent months, Witkoff stayed engaged on Gaza talks and Iran talks, maintaining an active role in Trump's inner circle.