Israel-Iran escalation may see rainy days ahead

Irish Times

6 hours ago

We're waking up this morning to news that president
Donald Trump
has left the
G7 meeting
in Canada early, due to the situation in the Middle East. President Trump warned that 'everyone should evacuate Tehran'.
What should have been Trump's latest round of talks with
Iran
were cancelled over the weekend, in the wake of Israel's unilateral attack on Tehran's nuclear and military programmes.
'What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,' Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social.
'I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!'
READ MORE
He added: 'AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!'
Our
lead story
details how the conflict between
Israel
and Iran, the two biggest military powers, further escalated. Yesterday, Iran threatened to leave the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and separately told the United Nations Security Council that its strikes on Israel were self-defence.
Meanwhile, Israel issued an evacuation order to residents of a large part of Tehran with warnings of imminent bombings.
The international volatility caused by the escalations between Iran and Israel loomed in the background of the National Economic Dialogue (NED) in Dublin Castle on Monday, with multiple senior political figures citing the uncertain and unsafe world that we live in as a reason for prudence in the upcoming Budget 2026.
On arrival yesterday, Tánaiste Simon Harris told reporters that previous governments had been criticised for setting money aside for a rainy day. 'Well,' he said, 'I think the reason for that now is very clear.'
Between war in the Middle East and Trump tariffs, reporters were given the clear indication that very rainy days may be coming. Though it is hard to remember any recent budget that wasn't designed against a backdrop of global uncertainty.
The NED effectively fires the starting gun on budget season. Amid attempts by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers to manage the public's expectations of any tax cuts in the upcoming budget, a proposed cut in VAT for hospitality seemed to survive.
In his speech and media engagement with journalists, the Taoiseach singled out housing infrastructure and disability services as two key priority areas for Budget 2026. This was pretty much expected, as Micheál Martin has so far staked the fortunes of this entire Government on getting both enduring and life-changing issues right. (Minister Chambers yesterday led a breakout session at the NED on infrastructure, including the ways that the new National Development Plan can 'signal investment in critical infrastructure to support housing delivery'.)
What was new was the degree to which the Taoiseach told us he is going to focus on the issue of child poverty in Budget 2026. An annual report from the Children's Rights Alliance, published last week, showed the number of children in consistent poverty in Ireland had increased by more than 45,000 in one year, bringing the total to over 100,000. Children are the most likely group in society to experience poverty.
Mr Martin said he hoped that this had been a 'temporary spike.' But added that he has told his Cabinet Ministers to come up with ideas for the budget that will 'really make the difference to the most vulnerable families and children'. Asked by reporters if this meant a new tier of Child Benefit, as proposed by the ESRI, the Taoiseach said that 'nothing was off the table'.
The three budget priorities – child poverty, housing and disability – all happen to be tied together this morning
in a piece by Kitty Holland
which shows that high housing costs and 'additional costs of disability' are among the main reasons why children experience deprivation despite living in houses that are not income-poor.
Elsewhere, Arthur Beesley is reporting that the
Peter McVerry Trust
has refused, for the second time, to appear before the Public Accounts Committee.
According to People Before Profit, Paul Murphy is due to fly home to Ireland today from Egypt. Mr Murphy was reported to have been detained by authorities for a second time yesterday, while trying to get his phone back from a police station. He was released a short time later.
Best Reads
In
his column today
, Fintan O'Toole takes us on a fascinating and forensic deep dive into the public policy and research documents that seem to be disappearing from Government websites. Fintan argues that the function of this 'memory hole' is to make it harder to hold those in power to account.
Órla Ryan
was in Tuam yesterday
, at the site of a planned excavation on a former Mother and Baby Home. She writes about a small town in a state of convulsion over its role in Ireland's horrifying past. 'Most people in the street on Monday did not want to talk.'
Mark Paul is writing from the UK on the British government's
review into grooming gangs
– in which the 'ethnicity' of perpetrators will be a key focus. Mark is writing about the 'bitter political row' that the deeply troubling grooming cases have sparked in Westminster.
Playbook
The Cabinet will meet this morning. As we expected, Minister for Housing James Browne is bringing forward a memo to extend Rent Pressure Zones to the entire country at breakneck speed. The Government hopes to have the plans ready to be signed into law before the end of the week. Beady-eyed Opposition parties had pounced on the Dáil business schedule on Friday, which did not list RPZ legislation.
Ministers will also consider plans to give new responsibilities to the Land Development Agency (LDA). Minister for Social Protection Dara Calleary is also bringing forward plans to allow an estimated 2,300 foster parents to benefit from the State's back-to-school clothing and footwear allowance.
You can read more about this morning's Cabinet meeting in
this tee-up
from Harry McGee and Martin Wall.
Speaking of housing, this evening a 'Raise the Roof' rally will take place at 6pm outside Leinster House. The event, which will feature folk singer Lisa O'Neill, is being timed to coincide with a cross-party motion calling for emergency action on housing. The Government's plans to reform Rent Pressure Zones, announced last week, will come in for criticism from demonstrators.
Meanwhile, Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Simon Harris will attend an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers today, which has been scheduled in response to the escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Mr Harris is attending the meeting via video link.
The
Dáil
schedule looks like this today:
14.00 – Leaders' Questions
15.04 – Motions Without Debate (Revised Estimates, Government changes to the Local Property Tax and a motion from the Standing Committee of Selection to swap in Fianna Fáil TD Paul McAuliffe for party colleague Willie O'Dea on the housing committee. (Mr O'Dea is stepping back from the committee for personal reasons.)
15.05 Taoiseach's Questions
15.50 Government Business, which is second stage of the (Local Property Tax and Other Provisions) (Amendment) Bill 2025
17.24 – Private Member's Business is a motion from Sinn Féin on Emergency Action on Housing and Homelessness, which is linked to the housing protest tonight
21.24 Questions to Minister for Children, Disability and Equality Norma Foley
23.00 Topical Issues
In the
Seanad
:
14.30 Commencement Matters
15.30 Order of Business
18.00 Government Business, which is Statements on Balanced Regional Development
And today's line-up of committees includes an appearance of the Land Development Agency before the housing committee, the Garda Representative Association before the justice committee and a range of local and national media groups are talking to politicians about the upcoming Broadcasting (Amendment) Bill
You can read the full committee schedule
here