Are the winds of political change blowing? Lack of poll data leaves Islanders in the dark

CBC

3 days ago

Some Prince Edward Island voters head to the polls today in a pair of byelections during what appears to be a year of political upheaval in the province, with all three parties in the legislature undergoing changes in leadership.
But if the winds of political change are blowing in provincial politics, people remain largely oblivious. Narrative Research, the only polling firm to provide regular data for P.E.I. and the other three Atlantic provinces, has not published data on voting intentions since late last year.
"If you don't have that information, I think you lose quite a bit," said Eric Grenier, a polling analyst, podcaster and journalist who's worked for CBC News, the Globe and Mail and other news agencies.
Without access to regular polling data, Grenier said it's impossible for Islanders or other Atlantic Canadians to understand how political events, policies and decisions have been shaping public opinion.
No one with Narrative Research was available for a sit-down interview, but CEO Margaret Brigley told CBC News the company has continued to track voting intentions as part of its regular quarterly polling, and shares that information with paid subscribers.
But she said the company won't be sharing those numbers with the public as regularly as it has in the past, especially if there is no election looming.
In June, the company released quarterly polling data tracking public satisfaction with the various Atlantic governments, but didn't share how those polled said they would vote in an election.
Grenier said if the public sees that data only in the lead-up to election day, they'll have little context to be able to interpret what shaped those numbers.
For example, Islanders haven't seen any voter preference or leader preference polls since Dennis King stepped down as premier in February, or since Matt MacFarlane became the new leader of P.E.I.'s Green Party in June.
If a poll comes out a year from now showing a significant change in support for the Greens, up or down, "is it because of the new leader? Is it because of events that have happened?" Grenier said. "It just helps us understand what's happening."
University of Prince Edward Island political science professor Don Desserud said he's been keeping track of Narrative's quarterly poll results since he moved to P.E.I. from New Brunswick in 2011.
"I have these wonderful charts that show the ups and downs of political party fortunes," Desserud said. "When you map that over the actual events, it's extremely useful to see. You can see exactly when [former premier Wade] MacLauchlan's popularity tanked."
According to Desserud's read of the polling data, that happened not when the premier chose to ignore the results of the province's 2016 plebiscite on electoral reform, but rather when the Green Party made an issue of it during a subsequent sitting of the legislature.
Both Desserud and Grenier noted that Narrative Research and other polling firms are private companies that have to turn a profit, and often make some of their poll results public in order to promote their services.
The paying customers typically include political parties and governments — and Desserud said that any time a government commissions a poll with taxpayer dollars, the results should be made public.
Grenier said having access to polling data can provide the public with a check against a government's PR spin.
"When they say that Islanders ... would be behind the decision they're making, polling would provide us with… [a] confirmation or a refutation of that."
Desserud said the decision by Narrative Research to stop sharing all its quarterly polling has created holes in his charts — breaks in a continuous line of data going back years that have ended its usefulness as an analytical tool and as a living, political historical document.