Europe on edge as Trump risks his biggest TACO moment

Sydney Morning Herald

2 days ago

There is no public shift in the core demands from Putin. First, Ukraine must withdraw from the eastern regions now under Russian control. Second, it must accept strict limits on the size and power of its military. Third, it must give up its dream of joining the NATO defence pact with the United States and much of Europe.
There may, of course, be a signal from Putin in private that he may be willing to be flexible on some of these demands, and this might in theory allow Zelensky some scope to make concessions. There is no sign of this, at least so far.
The emptiness in Anchorage was apparent in what was not said at the end. Trump did not mention 'severe consequences' for Russia, something he threatened just before the summit.
Trump did not mention secondary tariffs on China, either. This move would place pressure on Russia and its key economic partner. Only later, when asked on Fox News, did Trump acknowledge the China question. And then he suggested this was a matter for a later date.
Putin, in other words, gained more time. At no cost. He played the White House team and made them look like amateurs.
Trump will be judged by his actions, not his words. He has reduced American support for Ukraine. US military supplies have slowed and US aid funding has also been scaled back. The claims about putting pressure on Russia are all in the headlines, not in the hard power on the ground.
Europe was cut out of this negotiation. Leaders such as Sir Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France and Friedrich Merz of Germany tried to back Zelensky but were left watching from a distance as an American and a Russian held a summit to decide the biggest war in Europe in eight decades.
This is humbling for European leaders and reminds them that they cannot rely on America – or, at least, America under Trump – to enforce any peace agreement with Putin. They will have to do that themselves.
Western Europe is scrambling to rearm so it can face Putin in a world without American safeguards. It is late, of course. Starmer and Macron will hold a meeting on Sunday, their time, to discuss their willingness to enforce a peace deal in Ukraine. While Starmer is willing to put 'boots on the ground' to do this, few others send this message.
The benign view of Anchorage is that Trump was 'feeling out' his Russian counterpart before getting a peace deal, and that he will hear from Zelensky on Monday before deciding the next steps. Nobody can be sure about the full story of the Anchorage summit until this happens.
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Even so, there are good grounds to think that Trump's decision to shift focus from a ceasefire to a long-term peace agreement means he is open to Putin's demands.
After all, the dynamic was clear in Trump's attempt to humiliate Zelensky in the White House in February, and then in his generous treatment of Putin in August. The US president would prefer Ukraine to give ground, not Russia. And he seems intent on pursuing this approach in his quest to secure the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Trump hates the four-letter barb that is often used to mock his tough talk: TACO, for Trump Always Chickens Out. He countered the critics by bombing Iran in June, but there is no sign he wants to take genuinely firm measures with Russia.
Trump said he could end the war. Now he discovers it is harder than he thought, and he tries to put the onus on others to make it easier for him. 'Now, it's really up to President Zelensky to get it done,' Trump told Fox News. 'And I would also say the European nations, they have to get involved a little bit.'
The easy option for Trump is for Zelensky and the European leaders to nod in support as he trades away large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. All the risks are on them if this simply emboldens Putin to start another war in a year or two.
The Alaska summit may be remembered as Trump's biggest TACO moment. And he will not win the Nobel for that. Everything depends on whether he has the stomach to stand up to Putin and force a lasting peace in Europe.