Why Democrats have limited power to fight Republican redistricting
Republicans could flip at least nine seats in the House of Representatives if they redraw district maps in heavily populated states where they have the power to redistrict.
Democrats, on the other hand, are hamstrung in the biggest blue states such as California and New York, which have enacted redistricting changes to prevent one party from having too much control over map-drawing.
In all, five new Republican seats could come from Texas, two to three from Ohio, and at least one from Florida. The ruby-red states of Indiana and Missouri have discussed redrawing their maps and could add one seat each, but they have not taken steps forward. The number of seats Democrats could win is less clear because the process would be slower and less certain.
Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said the purpose of Democrats pushing back on Republican efforts to redistrict "is really to shine a light on the Republicans' anti-democratic tendencies" as part of their messaging strategy.
The mid-decade redistricting movement could provide a short-run benefit to Republicans, who are at risk of losing their 219-212 majority in the House of Representatives.
What is gerrymandering? See where the term comes from.
Though states typically redistrict every decade in the two years that follow the new census, President Donald Trump has encouraged redistricting to happen ahead of 2026. Even several seats may not be enough to withstand the tendency of the party in the White House to lose seats in between presidential elections. In 2010, under President Barack Obama, the House of Representatives swung toward Republicans by 63 seats.
Here's a look at where redistricting is in progress, and where leaders have said they're considering redrawing their maps.
The process is moving in Texas, Florida and Ohio
Republicans' biggest gains in redistricting would come from Florida, Ohio and Texas, the most populous states with unified Republican control of state government. All of these states are taking action related to redistricting, and the resulting maps could provide Republicans up to nine new seats.
In Texas, the Republican-led state Legislature is moving aggressively to pass a new congressional map with five new districts likely to lean Republican. Democrats left the state in protest to deny their colleagues a quorum, but Republican Gov. Greg Abbott issued arrest warrants for the Democrats who fled, and Trump suggested the FBI may have to force them back to the state.
"I'm a little skeptical that that shift is going to be enough to withstand what's going to happen in the larger blue wave that's likely to happen in the 2026 election nationally in response to Trump," McDonald said of the five congressional seats Texas Republicans are trying to capture.
Ohio was already planning to redraw its congressional map because of gerrymandering reform language in the state Constitution. Because no Democrats in the state Legislature voted in favor of the new maps drawn in response to the 2020 Census, the Republican-approved map could legally be used only in 2022 and 2024.
The Legislature must draw a new map and pass it by Nov. 30. Observers are expecting two to three more seats to lean Republican, possibly affecting voters in the Akron, Cincinnati and Toledo areas.
Florida House of Representatives Speaker Daniel Perez has announced a special committee for redistricting that will focus exclusively on the state's congressional map, not state legislative maps. He said there is limited time to handle additional redistricting and points to a recent state Supreme Court case that upheld the Republican-friendly congressional map.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said Aug. 11 that Florida should have gotten an additional seat during the 2020 census and raised questions about the congressional districts in South Florida. Politico pointed to any of three Democratic-held seats in south Florida as possible targets. The Washington, DC-based news outlet Punchbowl reports that Republicans want at least three seats from a new map.
Indiana and Missouri consider redrawing, too
Additional Republican congressional seats could be drawn in the staunchly Republican states of Indiana and Missouri − one in each state − but the process for doing so is not as far along as in other states. Governors of both states would need to call special legislative sessions to have the maps redrawn.
Vice President JD Vance took the unusual step of visiting Indiana to meet with some of the state's top Republican officials Aug. 7 and discuss redistricting. Though Republicans already hold seven of the state's nine congressional seats, an expert says they have their eyes on the 1st Congressional District, which covers the northwest corner of Indiana and includes the suburbs of Chicago. It's more moderate than the other Democratic-leaning district, which encompasses Indianapolis, and the Cook Partisan Voting Index now ranks the district as a slight Democratic lean, so changing the boundary to add GOP voters could tip the balance. Republicans also have targeted the seat in past elections.
Republicans hold a supermajority in the state Legislature in Missouri. The state has eight congressional seats, and only two are held by Democrats. Republicans are eyeing Missouri's 5th District, according to the Missouri Independent. The district encompasses a large portion of the Kansas City area and is held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. But even the Republican Legislature rejected a similar map in 2022 that gave seven seats to the Republicans, according to St. Louis Public Radio.
Democratic states grapple with redistricting changes
Democrats who run populous states are considering redistricting, but some of them face a hurdle: Their parties don't have control over drawing legislative maps. Instead, the power is in the hands of independent commissions, something often left-leaning pro-democracy advocates have supported to enact fair maps that reduce gerrymandering.
In California, the only state more populous than Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to hold a special election in November so voters can greenlight a one-time redistricting plan to add seats for Democrats, according to ABC 7 News. He wants five to six seats in time for 2026, according to CalMatters. The congressional maps that are drawn every decade are usually completed by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which includes Democrats, Republicans and independents.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wrote in an Aug. 5 op-ed that she's looking at ways to redraw the maps. "If Republicans are changing the rules, we'll meet them on the same field," she wrote.
That includes asking voters to approve a constitutional amendment to allow for mid-decade redistricting, according to City & State New York. The move would bypass the state's independent redistricting commission, which essentially stops the Democrat-led Legislature from drawing its own maps. Change wouldn't come before 2028.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a social media post Aug. 10 that Congress should pass new, fair maps, but he added that until that happens, "Democratic states must consider all the options to protect our constitutional republic." Common Cause, a left-leaning nonpartisan group that supports redistricting reform, gives Illinois an F grade for its maps that are drawn by the Democrat-led state Legislature. It's not clear how many seats Illinois could gain or when.
New Jersey has a redistricting commission that was created by a state constitutional amendment. A change to the process would require a change to the state constitution, according to Politico. Despite the long odds, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries specifically told CNN he'd be interested in redistricting New Jersey. Gov. Phil Murphy didn't rule it out, but also hasn't taken action, making any seats gained unclear.
"Never bring a knife to a gunfight," Murphy told the New Jersey Globe on July 21, quoting a Sean Connery movie. "So if that's the way we're going, we're from Jersey, baby, and we won't be laying down."
Contributing: Columbus Dispatch reporter Jessie Balmert; Indianapolis Star reporters Brittany Carloni, Tony Cook and Kayla Dwyer; and Tallahassee Democrat reporter Gray Rohrer
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Republicans have upper hand in House seats in redistricting battle
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