Russian Withdrawal From Prized Syrian Naval Base Now Underway

Yahoo

27-01-2025

Satellite imagery shows clear indications that Russia's increasingly anticipated withdrawal of forces from its Tartus naval base in Syria has finally started. Complete loss of access to the facility, where Russian vehicles and materiel have been massing there for weeks already, would be a major blow to the Kremlin. The Russian military has already been steadily drawing down its posture at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria amid persistent questions about the future of its presence in the country as a whole since the sudden fall of dictator Bashar Al Assad last year.
Satellite imagery taken on January 25 that TWZ obtained from Maxar, seen at the top of this story and below, shows the Russian-flagged roll-on/roll-off (RO/RO) cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II docked in Tartus, as well as cargo transloading activity. The two ships had been holding offshore for days before finally being allowed to enter the port.
The images also show the disappearance of a significant number of Russian vehicles and other materiel from a pier where they had been marshalled weeks ago.
An additional satellite image taken on January 27 that TWZ reviewed from Planet Labs shows even more vehicles and materiel missing from the pier. A number of vehicles are also now visible arrayed in a row close to the pier edge, which would make them easier to load onto a ship. A large number of shipping containers have also now appeared in another nearby cargo marshaling area, though it is unclear whether or not this is related to the movement of Russian materiel or non-military cargo operations that have now resumed at the port.
Still @planet image of Tartus port taken today, January 27 – open the image in a new tab to explore it yourself. pic.twitter.com/pCM0uXyf1w
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) January 27, 2025
As noted, all of this follows the Sparta and Sparta II finally entering the the port of Tartus last week. The satellite image from Planet also confirms that one of these vessels has now departed, which would align with the aforementioned disappearance of the vehicles and materiel.
Sparta is now heading to dock at Tartus to assist in the evacuation and join Sparta II.I suspect one of the two Russian landing ships not visible on AIS may have finished loading equipment and has now opened up a space for the Sparta. pic.twitter.com/kkERs7GqgQ
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) January 22, 2025
Med Sea Flotilla
Heavy clouds over Tartus today but you can't hide from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)Sentinel 1
, 15:41 UTC on 22 Jan4-5 vessels at the piers (including Sparta & Sparta II)I don't think they are military given the grouping of ships near the anchorage pic.twitter.com/NPAajsQGW5
— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) January 23, 2025
Satellite imagery from 19.01.2025 (Image 1) shows that the Russia military transport ship #Sparta is still in port at #Tartus, Syria, but the #SpartaII had departed and the vehicle staging area at the port is empty. On 24.02.2025 (Image 2), the vehicle staging area is full again… pic.twitter.com/i1dAXd5v8e
— OSINT (Uri)
(@UKikaski) January 26, 2025
Videos had also previously emerged on social media said to show Ka-52 and Mi-8 series helicopters providing overwatch around Tartus. Similar aerial activity has been observed in the past around the withdrawal of forces from Khmeimim. The image from Planet also looks to show a Russian Grachonok class patrol boat, designed primarily for force protection duties in and around ports, moored in Tartus.
#Russian Ka-52 & Mi-8 #helicopters spotted conducting reconnaissance over #Syria's Tartus port, where Russian logistics vessels Sparta & Sparta II are docked. Likely tasked with transporting military equipment as #Russia consolidates forces in the region.#ElonMusk #الدعم_السكني pic.twitter.com/vQNbkXhb0n
— Breaking Now (@BreakinggNow) January 23, 2025
The Grachonok-class anti sabotage boat remains alongside. I think the loading of this one, or not, is a usable indicator for the Russian Navy leaving for good. Notably, only the Sparta's, no warships as far as I know, have been alongside so far. https://t.co/gxCEXsNxDq pic.twitter.com/nGaxBloRps
— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) January 27, 2025
TWZ has previously highlighted the significant vulnerability of Russian maritime and ground assets at both Tartus and Khmeimim, especially to drones, as emplaced air and other defenses appear to have been broken down for withdrawal. Russian naval vessels that were in the port of Tartus when Assad fell left shortly thereafter in another apparent force protection move. Many of them still appear to be holding off the coast, though the Improved Kilo class submarine Novorossiysk has notably left the region.
Another Russian RO/RO cargo ship, the Sparta IV, was recently observed leaving the Baltic Sea along with a Russian Navy Ropucha class amphibious warfare ship. These vessels may also be headed for Syria, but this currently remains unconfirmed. Other Russian amphibious warfare ships that could be used to transport cargo out of Tartus have also arrived off the coast of that port in recent weeks. Another Russian-flagged cargo ship, the Ursa Major, which may have been Syria-bound, sank in the Mediterranean in December 2024 under still-murky circumstances as you can read more about here.
COI/OOA activity – BreakingRussian weapon runner COI MV 'Sparta IV' escorted by Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Pr.772/II Ropucha class BDK-110 'Alexandr Shabalin' VISID departed the Baltic Sea, PM 27 January 2025.
Both units highly likely ENR the Mediterranean Sea. pic.twitter.com/1Zai0h8454
— Droxford Maritime (@Drox_Maritime) January 27, 2025
The recent activity in and around Tartus also follows still-unconfirmed reports from Syrian media that the country's fledgling government in Damascus canceled Russia's 49-year lease agreement for its base in Tartus. The Kremlin had struck the deal back in 2017 with the Assad regime, which had essentially gifted the naval facility, as well as Khmeimim Air Base, to the Russians. Two years earlier, Russia's military launched an invention in the country some two years earlier, which had saved Assad from advancing rebel forces. Russian forces were still actively fighting rebel forces, including elements of the coalition led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that ultimately deposed Assad, right up until the collapse of the regime.
As TWZ highlighted even before the fall of Assad's regime in December 2024, Tartus and Khmeimim are strategically very significant for Russia beyond just operations in Syria and the Middle East. The facilities have been particularly important nodes for supporting Russian activity in Africa, especially Libya, where the Kremlin looks to be trying now to bolster its presence. Tartus notably provided the Russian Navy with a key warm water port. Khmeimim, which Russia has notably expanded in recent years, including to help the base be better able to serve larger aircraft like bombers, had also been a valuable point from which to project air power across the Mediterranean and elsewhere.
What the final status of the naval base at Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base will look like remains unclear. Russia has, unsurprisingly, voiced clear interest in retaining at least some kind of presence at both facilities and has reportedly been negotiating with the new Syrian authorities in Damascus to this end. For its part, the post-Assad government, led by members of HTS, has previously expressed a willingness to maintain ties with the Kremlin despite open conflict between the two sides just two months ago.
The situation across Syria is otherwise still extremely fluid, and the new government in Damascus has yet to consolidate control over much of the country. Turkish-backed forces continue to openly fight with Kurdish groups, including elements tied to the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the north. There has also been talk of integrating the SDF into a new national military.
In southwestern Syria, Israel looks to be consolidating its control over territory in an ostensible buffer zone, moves that have been criticized by the HTS-led government and parts of the international community. Israeli, U.S., and other foreign forces have also taken advantage of the newly permissive airspace across Syria to launch airstrikes in support of their national interests. The U.S. military says its focus is on preventing ISIS terrorists from exploiting the situation to regroup and has reportedly shared intelligence with HTS to support that fight.
Still, many countries, including Russia and the United States, formally designate HTS as a terrorist group. Major U.S. and other foreign sanctions imposed on the Assad regime also remain in place, though American and European officials have moved to relax and/or suspend them.
Whether or not Russia's military presence in Syria is now set to end entirely remains unknown, but after weeks of steady withdrawals from Khmeimim Air Base, the departure of forces from Tartus now looks to be actively underway.
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