Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick: UFC 315 co-main won't be pretty

USA Today

10-05-2025

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick: UFC 315 co-main won't be pretty
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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot | UFC 315 co-main breakdown
Who will win Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot? MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 315 co-headliner.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 315 co-main event between women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and Mannon Fiorot.
Valentina Shevchenko UFC 315 preview
Staple info:
Record: 24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC
24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC Height: 5'5"
5'5" Age: 37
37 Weight: 125 lbs.
125 lbs. Reach: 65.5"
65.5" Last fight: Decision win over Alexa Grasso (Sept. 14, 2024)
Decision win over Alexa Grasso (Sept. 14, 2024) Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas)
Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
Southpaw/muay Thai Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+UFC women's flyweight champion
+17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
+9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
+Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
+6 KO victories
+7 submission wins
+6 first-round finishes
+KO power
+Solid footwork
^Seldom out of position
+Accurate check hook and counter cross
+Hard knees, elbows and kicks
+Crafty clinch game
^Good trips and tosses
+Strong positional grappler
+/-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Manon Fiorot UFC 315 preview
Staple info:
Record: 12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC
12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC Age: 35
35 Height: 5'7"
5'7" Weight: 125 lbs.
125 lbs. Reach: 66"
66" Last fight: Decision win over Erin Blanchfield (March 30, 2024)
Decision win over Erin Blanchfield (March 30, 2024) Camp: Boxing Squad (France)
Boxing Squad (France) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Southpaw/kickboxing Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+Regional MMA titles
+IMMAF amateur world champion (MMA)
+Karate black belt
+Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+Multiple muay Thai accolades (12-0 as a pro)
+6 KO victories
+1 first-round finish
+Aggressive pace and pressure
+Good striking ability
^Favors headhunting but will mix in kicks
+Strong inside the clinch
^Shows good over and underhook awareness
+Serviceable takedown ability
^Defensively and offensively
+/-0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
The co-main event for UFC 315 features a women's flyweight title fight between two southpaw strikers.
Shevchenko, who has a bit more of a southpaw sample size, officially stands at 2-1 opposite UFC-level lefties.
Indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat sports since she was 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check hooks to counter crosses on a hair trigger. Whenever someone tries to step off to the champion's weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled.
I suspect that Shevchenko will lean heavier on jabbing and leg kick dynamics given that she's facing a fellow southpaw, but she'll need to be mindful of the hooks and crosses coming back her way.
Enter Manon Fiorot.
A karateka since the age of seven, Fiorot embodies much of the in-and-out movement that one would associate with sport karate.
Practically keeping the same approach when fighting fellow lefties, Fiorot throws a lot of the weapons that southpaws should never leave home without. Whether Fiorot's variating between jabs and hooks or parlaying missed Thai kicks into sidekicks, the French fighter seems to maintain a decent flow to her offensive output.
Despite sometimes having the propensity to headhunt, Fiorot will mix up said sidekick to both the legs and body in an attempt to halt her opponent's advances. However, I'm not sure how much Fiorot will be looking to kick given the looming grappling threat that Shevchenko presents.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot breakdown: Potential grappling threats
As alluded to in the previous section, Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light in closed quarters.
Like we've seen in past Shevchenko fights, fighters who come in hot on the champion tend to get grounded accordingly – particularly when trying to do so from the clinch.
No longer underrated inside this space, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does Shevchenko wield mean elbows off the break, but the Kyrgyzstani is also better about getting her back off of the fence at this weight class.
Aside from not being shy about incorporating clinch throws and tosses during her muay Thai days, Shevchenko has also developed a taste for level-changing takedowns in MMA (at least since the latter end of her championship run). Even when wrestling might not be the most advisable adjustment, Shevchenko seems to have it equipped as a go-to option whenever she's looking to get one back.
In Shevchenko's defense, she did have her best moments in this series with Grasso on the floor, securing everything from rear mounts to crucifix positions in the first fight to scoring smooth takedowns by the third bout.
Nevertheless, meaningfully taking Fiorot down has been easier said than done thus far in the UFC.
Although her takedown defense rating has shown a statistical drop in recent fights, Fiorot demonstrates a decent understanding of both over and underhooks.
Favoring a strong whizzer, Fiorot can both sprawl her hips and/or separate grips when defending her opponent's shots. The whizzer is also a great tool that allows the hyper-athletic Fiorot to scramble back to her feet off of semi-completed shots, which will likely come in handy against a willing takedown threat like Shevchenko.
Fiorot also has demonstrated a hardwiring to score takedowns of her own, even if they're not at the smartest times.
In Fiorot's defense, she has shown some serviceable grappling from topside in the brief stanzas we've seen in the octagon. Either way, I'm hoping that someone like Shevchenko can further test the French fighter's ground skills.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot odds
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the challenger, listing Fiorot -124 and Shevchenko +102 via FanDuel.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick
I know that MMA gamblers love to fade aging fighters who they perceive to be in the advanced stages of their careers, but I have a hard time justifying the faith in Fiorot as the favorite.
Sure, Shevchenko may have some questionable tendencies to go along with the lower-volume fights she tends to take part in, but she's still the more skilled and proven product in my eyes.
Grasso was able to surprise Shevchenko with the southpaw vs. southpaw dynamic early on in their series, earning some big moments because of it. That said, Shevchenko quietly got better during her stretch of fights with Grasso, steadily showing a superior, full-fledged southpaw arsenal.
Whereas Fiorot, who came bursting on the scene as a high-volume phenom, has since come back down to earth with lower output affairs as the competition has gotten harder.
Sure, Fiorot may technically be coming off a successful 25-minute showcase, but she still shows signs of a suspect gas tank with bad decision-making to boot.
Not only does Fiorot have a habit of taking risky takedown shots to dissuade pressure, but she also seems to have clinching hardwired into many of her resets – something that I see potentially costing her against a superior clinch fighter who will likely be looking for takedowns.
I'm not expecting this fight to be pretty or entertaining, but I do expect Shevchenko to dictate the terms of this contest with her jab, counters and wrestling ability. Even though head kicks will be live throughout given how kickable and predictable Fiorot can be, I'll officially pick Shevchenko to stick and stymie her way to a win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Shevchenko by decision
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Shevchenko and Fiorot are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.