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USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick: Is upset brewing at UFC on ESPN 68?
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick: Is upset brewing at UFC on ESPN 68? Maycee Barber has won six straight, but she's a significant underdog against Erin Blanchfield in Las Vegas. Show Caption Hide Caption Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction | UFC on ESPN 68 breakdown MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC on ESPN 68 in Las Vegas. Dan Tom MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 68 main event between women's flyweight contenders Erin Blanchfield and Macyee Barber. Erin Blanchfield UFC on ESPN 68 preview Staple info: Record: 13-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC Height: 5'4" Age: 26 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68" Last fight: Decision win over Rose Namajunas (Nov. 2, 2024) Camp: MK Muay Thai (New Jersey) Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai Risk management: Good Supplemental info: + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + EBI flyweight champion + 2 KO victories + 4 submission wins + 3 first-round finishes + Consistent pace and pressure + Steadily improved striking ^ Stance shifts, kicks and combos + Strong inside the clinch ^ Good frames, elbows and knees + Serviceable takedown ability ^ Chains well off of singles + Excellent transitional grappler +/- 3-0 inside the UFC Apex Maycee Barber UFC on ESPN 68 preview Staple info: Record: 14-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC Height: 5'5" Age: 27 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65" Last fight: Decision win over Katlyn Cerminara (March 9, 2024) Camp: Team Alpha Male/High Altitude Martial Arts (Denver) Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai Risk management: Fair Supplemental info: + Karate black belt (2nd degree) + Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt + 6 KO victories + 2 submission wins + 3 first-round finishes + KO power + Steadily improving striking ^ Hard kicks and combos + Strong inside the clinch ^ Good frames, elbows and knees + Servicable takedown ability + Improved takedown defense and getups + Solid ground striking +/-2-1 in the UFC Apex Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber point of interest: Striking in the small cage The main event in Las Vegas features a women's flyweight affair between two top-five fighters familiar with exchanging in the smaller octagon of the Apex. Initially coming through Dana White's Contender Series when it was still hosted in the old "TUF" gym, Maycee Barber has quietly accrued some solid experience under the UFC banner – though in that experience, she never had missed weight until Friday. Barber came in a half-pound heavy for the headliner. A large and powerful athlete for her division, Barber can pack some serious pop compared to her contemporaries. "The Future" still maintains her in-and-out sensibilities from her background in karate, but Barber has made steady efforts to settle down and improve her fundamental striking since spreading her time around with other camps like Team Alpha Male and company. Now working with striking coaches like Guilherme Faria, Barber has slowly shown more of a feinting and jabbing process as opposed to wading forward with naked kicks and punches. Primarily fighting from southpaw, Barber wields dangerous offerings off of her left side that range from head kicks to crosses. And when Barber is feeling in stride and can corral her opponents to the cage, she unleashes wicked elbows and Eddie Alvarez-esque punching combos with how animated her hooks can get. That said, Barber is not beyond being taxed for coming in hot and will need to be careful opposite Erin Blanchfield. Although Blanchfield has been primarily billed as a grappler, the native New Yorker has made measurable strides in her striking game since working with MK Muay Thai in New Jersey. Steadily pressuring forward behind a prodding jab, Blanchfield employs solid form in her straight punches and front teeps to enter space. When feeling in stride, Blanchfield can shift to southpaw where she has shown a knack for left crosses and high kicks. Once Blanchfield can establish herself in the clinch, the 26-year-old smartly prioritizes frames that allow her to get off deceptively effective elbows and knees in close. But considering that Barber also makes her money in this space, I'll be curious to see how the closed-quarter combat shakes out. Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber breakdown: Potential grappling threats Considering Blanchfield's on-paper edges and opportunistic submission acumen, no one should be shocked if "Ice Cold" looks for takedowns early and often. Since storming onto the scene as the first female EBI flyweight champion, Blanchfield has only continued to grow her grappling abilities in mixed martial arts. Appearing to be an avid driller in the wrestling realm, Blanchfield sequences her attacks like second nature, chaining particularly well from single-leg positions. Whether Blanchfield is sweeping the standing leg or looking to double off into a more traditional shot, the 7-year pro is certainly not short on ideas in this space. Once she's able to secure top position off of takedowns, Blanchfield's brand of high-percentage choices continues to show itself on the floor. From cross-wrist rides that lead to pins to kimura traps that allow for positional advances, Blanchfield displays a bevy of high-level tactics that she regularly puts to practice in her fights. Still, larger and stronger athletes have shown to be difficult for Blanchfield to control, so I'm curious as to how she'll stack up against Barber. Already strong and confident in the clinch from an offensive standpoint, Barber presents a strong first layer of defense for her opponents to break through. Having a good sense for establishing over-under positions, Barber can work her way out of negative positions and pile on impactful damage in the small openings. Barber's hips seem strong both in the open and against the fence, making double-legs particularly difficult to hit on her (unless her kicks are being countered, of course). When taken down, Barber has shown a suspect bottom game in past fights as far as her complacency and seeming lack of options. However, in Barber's defense, she has shown smarter tactical choices in regard to utilizing everything from underhooks to the cage to get back to her feet. And when Babrer is working from top position, she possesses some solid ground and pound that Blanchfield will need to respect. Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber odds The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the New Jersey native, listing Blanchfield -250 and Barber +190 via FanDuel. Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick Although I don't disagree with who is favored, the betting line listed above is starting to get a bit too wide for my liking. Aside from the fact that women's MMA carries a special kind of volatility from a handicapping and prognostication perspective, Barber has proven to possess some serious X-factors that always make her a live underdog. Whether we're talking about Barber's standout power or her judge-swaying style (which has earned her a couple of questionable scorecards in the UFC), she'll be very lively from start to finish should she avoid getting washed by Blanchfield on the mat. The potential problem, however, is that Blanchfield – who is very difficult to dissuade in victory or defeat – has some takedown tools that could be very effective against Barber. So long as Blanchfield doesn't get stuck inside of clinch space with a more dangerous threat in Barber, then I see her single-leg chaining ability being problematic for a first-layer defender who emphasizes on hips and upper-body controls. And though we should all leave some room to be surprised when it comes to Barber and any potential improvements she's made during this one-year layoff she's coming off of, the 27-year-old has shown little outside of recent underhook getup attempts (which can get her front choked if she's not careful) that gives me enough confidence to back her here. Add in the fact that this fight is taking place in the smaller octagon of the Apex, and I can't help but side with Blanchfield to get her win conditions and potentially take Barber to "exposure city" via a rear-naked choke in Round 2. Prediction: Blanchfield inside the distance Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber start time, how to watch As the main event, Burns and Morales are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
USA Today
16-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick: Are wide odds justified?
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick: Are wide odds justified? Undefeated Michael Morales enters as a huge favorite against former title challenger Gilbert Burns. Are the oddsmakers dismissing the savvy veteran? Show Caption Hide Caption Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction | UFC Fight Night 256 breakdown MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC Fight Night 256 in Las Vegas. Dan Tom MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 256 main event between welterweight contenders Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales. Gilbert Burns UFC Fight Night 256 preview Staple info: Record : 22-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC : 22-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC Height : 5'5" Age: 37 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5" : 5'5" Age: 37 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5" Last fight : Decision loss to Sean Brady (Sept. 27, 2024) : Decision loss to Sean Brady (Sept. 27, 2024) Camp : Kill Cliff FC (Florida) : Kill Cliff FC (Florida) Stance/striking style : Orthodox/kickboxing : Orthodox/kickboxing Risk management: Fair Supplemental info: + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree) + 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion + Multiple grappling accolades (in and out of the gi) + 6 KO victories + 9 submission wins + 11 first-round finishes + KO power + Aggressive pace and pressure + Improved overall striking flow ^ Dangerous counter right hand + Strikes well off the breaks + Solid wrestling ability + Superb transitional grappler ^ Works well from top or bottom Michael Morales UFC Fight Night 256 preview Staple info: Record : 17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC : 17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC Height : 6'0" Age: 25 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 79" : 6'0" Age: 25 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 79" Last fight: TKO win over Neil Magny (Aug. 24, 2024) TKO win over Neil Magny (Aug. 24, 2024) Camp : Entram Gym (Mexico) : Entram Gym (Mexico) Stance/striking style : Orthodox/muay Thai : Orthodox/muay Thai Risk management: Fair Supplemental info: + Regional MMA titles + National champion freestyle wrestling (Ecuador) + National champion in muay Thai (Ecuador) + 12 KO victories + 1 submission win + 8 first-round finishes + Long and stiff jab + Dangerous right hand ^ Coming forward or off the counter + Strong inside the clinch ^ Suplexes to strikes off the break + Solid wrestling ability + Shows solid grappling from topside Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales point of interest: Striking in the small cage The main event in Las Vegas features a potential welterweight war between top 15 fighters. Coming off of three consecutive contests inside the UFC's Apex, Morales is more than familiar with the fighting area of the smaller octagon. Although Morales still seems to be sorting out his stylistic process, the Ecuadorian does a decent job of staying long and fighting to his frame. From stiff jabs to counter crosses, Morales offers up some tricky hurdles for those trying to close the distance on him. When feeling in stride, Morales will also let loose with some explosive flying knees up the centerline. Still, he'll need to be careful about throwing himself out of position, considering his current counterpart, Burns. An accomplished grappler who immersed himself in all facets of martial arts, Burns has steadily become a formidable threat on the feet. Another fighter under the care of coach Hooft, we have seen 'Durinho' build upon his pressuring sensibilities in the striking department. Whether he's working off of his jab or his opponent's, Burns always seems to have a heavy right hook chambered in the rear, as he typically looks to inch his way forward with offense that's wired on a hair-trigger. Burns, who is a solid leg kicker in his own right, has also shown signs of improving his defensive awareness in regards to both checking and countering leg kicks thrown his way. I'm not sure how much Morales will give him to work off of in the kicking department, so I'll be curious to see if Burns looks to fill that vacancy on the feet this Saturday. Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales point of interest: Potential grappling threats Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity lies, no one should be surprised if Burns looks to get this fight to the floor. An IBJJF world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns has smartly sharpened his surrounding skill sets since stepping onto the MMA scene. Working with wrestling influences and standouts like Greg Jones to catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson, Burns has been able to develop the groundwork to assist his game during this welterweight run. Integrating these crucial styles into his repertoire, there are now few to no positions that Burns is not comfortable or capable of working from. Whether Burns is defending takedowns along the fence and striking off the breaks or hitting sweet trips and chaining takedowns of his own, the Brazilian's wrestling improvements remain to be one of the things that quietly impresses me most. However, as underrated as that part of his game may be, taking down Morales could be difficult given his strong athletic frame and wrestling background. A freestyle wrestling champion in his home country of Ecuador, Morales reminds me of a young Jon Jones in the way in which opportunistic offense comes to his mind. From spinning elbows off clinch breaks to emphatic suplexes to punctuate rounds, Morales displays the building blocks to justify said claims. That said, Morales, despite otherwise having solid balance and defensive fundamentals, can get a bit lackadaisical at times when fighting in the clinch or off his back, often waiting for opportunistic moments from his opponent's offense before exploding into something. Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales odds The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the younger fighter, listing Morales -950 and Burns +540 via FanDuel. Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick I know there's nothing that MMA gamblers love more than the opportunity to bet a hyped product opposite an aging fighter, but the betting spread listed above is almost criminal at this point. I don't disagree that Morales is favored, but odds north of 8-1 suggest that this is much more of a sure thing than it has any right to be. Aside from the fact that Morales is young and not nearly as experienced as Burns, the product from Ecuador appears to lack any semblance of a reliable process, often relying on opportunistic moments for his skills and athleticism to shine. Still, what Morales does do well might sadly be enough to see him through in this spot. Although Burns could certainly give a veteran lesson if this fight goes to the ground, Morales' clinch presence and range weapons may be too strong and sturdy a force for the Brazilian to break through. Add in the fact that checking jabs and counter-crosses have traditionally been the common culprit for Burns' standing, and I can't help but side with the up-and-comer here. There's nothing I'd love more than to see Burns upset the apple cart as a huge underdog, but the fact that he's yet to beat a fighter in their athletic prime since moving up to welterweight makes my stylistic reads from the sentence prior even harder to ignore. It's dog or pass from a betting perspective, but the official pick is Morales by knockout in Round 2. Prediction: Morales inside the distance Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales start time, how to watch As the main event, Burns and Morales are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+.
USA Today
10-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick: UFC 315 co-main won't be pretty
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick: UFC 315 co-main won't be pretty Show Caption Hide Caption Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot | UFC 315 co-main breakdown Who will win Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot? MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 315 co-headliner. Dan Tom MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 315 co-main event between women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and Mannon Fiorot. Valentina Shevchenko UFC 315 preview Staple info: Record: 24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC 24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC Height: 5'5" 5'5" Age: 37 37 Weight: 125 lbs. 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5" 65.5" Last fight: Decision win over Alexa Grasso (Sept. 14, 2024) Decision win over Alexa Grasso (Sept. 14, 2024) Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas) Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai Southpaw/muay Thai Risk management: Good Supplemental info: +UFC women's flyweight champion +17x muay Thai and K-1 championships +9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro) +Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan) +6 KO victories +7 submission wins +6 first-round finishes +KO power +Solid footwork ^Seldom out of position +Accurate check hook and counter cross +Hard knees, elbows and kicks +Crafty clinch game ^Good trips and tosses +Strong positional grappler +/-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws Manon Fiorot UFC 315 preview Staple info: Record: 12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC 12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC Age: 35 35 Height: 5'7" 5'7" Weight: 125 lbs. 125 lbs. Reach: 66" 66" Last fight: Decision win over Erin Blanchfield (March 30, 2024) Decision win over Erin Blanchfield (March 30, 2024) Camp: Boxing Squad (France) Boxing Squad (France) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing Southpaw/kickboxing Risk management: Fair Supplemental info: +Regional MMA titles +IMMAF amateur world champion (MMA) +Karate black belt +Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt +Multiple muay Thai accolades (12-0 as a pro) +6 KO victories +1 first-round finish +Aggressive pace and pressure +Good striking ability ^Favors headhunting but will mix in kicks +Strong inside the clinch ^Shows good over and underhook awareness +Serviceable takedown ability ^Defensively and offensively +/-0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw The co-main event for UFC 315 features a women's flyweight title fight between two southpaw strikers. Shevchenko, who has a bit more of a southpaw sample size, officially stands at 2-1 opposite UFC-level lefties. Indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat sports since she was 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times). A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check hooks to counter crosses on a hair trigger. Whenever someone tries to step off to the champion's weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled. I suspect that Shevchenko will lean heavier on jabbing and leg kick dynamics given that she's facing a fellow southpaw, but she'll need to be mindful of the hooks and crosses coming back her way. Enter Manon Fiorot. A karateka since the age of seven, Fiorot embodies much of the in-and-out movement that one would associate with sport karate. Practically keeping the same approach when fighting fellow lefties, Fiorot throws a lot of the weapons that southpaws should never leave home without. Whether Fiorot's variating between jabs and hooks or parlaying missed Thai kicks into sidekicks, the French fighter seems to maintain a decent flow to her offensive output. Despite sometimes having the propensity to headhunt, Fiorot will mix up said sidekick to both the legs and body in an attempt to halt her opponent's advances. However, I'm not sure how much Fiorot will be looking to kick given the looming grappling threat that Shevchenko presents. Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot breakdown: Potential grappling threats As alluded to in the previous section, Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light in closed quarters. Like we've seen in past Shevchenko fights, fighters who come in hot on the champion tend to get grounded accordingly – particularly when trying to do so from the clinch. No longer underrated inside this space, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does Shevchenko wield mean elbows off the break, but the Kyrgyzstani is also better about getting her back off of the fence at this weight class. Aside from not being shy about incorporating clinch throws and tosses during her muay Thai days, Shevchenko has also developed a taste for level-changing takedowns in MMA (at least since the latter end of her championship run). Even when wrestling might not be the most advisable adjustment, Shevchenko seems to have it equipped as a go-to option whenever she's looking to get one back. In Shevchenko's defense, she did have her best moments in this series with Grasso on the floor, securing everything from rear mounts to crucifix positions in the first fight to scoring smooth takedowns by the third bout. Nevertheless, meaningfully taking Fiorot down has been easier said than done thus far in the UFC. Although her takedown defense rating has shown a statistical drop in recent fights, Fiorot demonstrates a decent understanding of both over and underhooks. Favoring a strong whizzer, Fiorot can both sprawl her hips and/or separate grips when defending her opponent's shots. The whizzer is also a great tool that allows the hyper-athletic Fiorot to scramble back to her feet off of semi-completed shots, which will likely come in handy against a willing takedown threat like Shevchenko. Fiorot also has demonstrated a hardwiring to score takedowns of her own, even if they're not at the smartest times. In Fiorot's defense, she has shown some serviceable grappling from topside in the brief stanzas we've seen in the octagon. Either way, I'm hoping that someone like Shevchenko can further test the French fighter's ground skills. Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot odds The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the challenger, listing Fiorot -124 and Shevchenko +102 via FanDuel. Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction, pick I know that MMA gamblers love to fade aging fighters who they perceive to be in the advanced stages of their careers, but I have a hard time justifying the faith in Fiorot as the favorite. Sure, Shevchenko may have some questionable tendencies to go along with the lower-volume fights she tends to take part in, but she's still the more skilled and proven product in my eyes. Grasso was able to surprise Shevchenko with the southpaw vs. southpaw dynamic early on in their series, earning some big moments because of it. That said, Shevchenko quietly got better during her stretch of fights with Grasso, steadily showing a superior, full-fledged southpaw arsenal. Whereas Fiorot, who came bursting on the scene as a high-volume phenom, has since come back down to earth with lower output affairs as the competition has gotten harder. Sure, Fiorot may technically be coming off a successful 25-minute showcase, but she still shows signs of a suspect gas tank with bad decision-making to boot. Not only does Fiorot have a habit of taking risky takedown shots to dissuade pressure, but she also seems to have clinching hardwired into many of her resets – something that I see potentially costing her against a superior clinch fighter who will likely be looking for takedowns. I'm not expecting this fight to be pretty or entertaining, but I do expect Shevchenko to dictate the terms of this contest with her jab, counters and wrestling ability. Even though head kicks will be live throughout given how kickable and predictable Fiorot can be, I'll officially pick Shevchenko to stick and stymie her way to a win on the scorecards. Prediction: Shevchenko by decision Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot start time, how to watch As the co-main event, Shevchenko and Fiorot are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
USA Today
07-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Valentina Shevchenko's experience helps her blow off Manon Fiorot's UFC 315 talk
Valentina Shevchenko's experience helps her blow off Manon Fiorot's UFC 315 talk Challenger Fiorot is slight betting favorite in title fight Show Caption Hide Caption UFC 315: Valentina Shevchenko media day interview UFC 315 co-headliner Valentina Shevchenko spoke to MMA Junkie and reporters at media day for her women's flyweight title defense vs. Manon Fiorot. MONTREAL – If Manon Fiorot thought she could rattle her next opponent with a few words, the champ says she has another thing coming Saturday. Fiorot (12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC), from France, will be fighting in front of a likely friendly crowd in the UFC 315 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) co-main event at Bell Centre in Montreal, where French is the official language, when she challenges women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1 MMA, 13-3-1 UFC) for the title. But Shevchenko, who will make her first attempted defense of the belt in her second reign as champ, thinks some of what Fiorot has been over the line. "I don't think it's appropriate to compare myself to her because I never will approach any of my opponents with so much disrespect like she did," Shevchenko said Wednesday at the UFC 315 media day. Fiorot has been perfect in the UFC so far, but with five straight decision wins after a pair of stoppages in her first two bouts in the promotion. She's also a slight betting favorite in the fight, which is rare for a first-time title challenger against a champion with Shevchenko's credentials. But Shevchenko has more than twice as much MMA experience as the 35-year-old Fiorot, and that's not dragging her other experience into the conversation. So Shevchenko's point seems to be if Fiorot thinks she can win the fight with words on social media or at a news conference, there may be a reality check coming. "My experience in martial arts is so many years," Shevchenko said. "I started when I was 5, and all these years before joining the UFC, I was already a 17-time world champion in muay Thai, in MMA, in kickboxing. "So imagine how many different characters I was able to meet and how many words they could say or something. If everything would bother me, I'd never achieve what I've achieved. My biggest ability is to block what's happening all around and focus on the main goal." Check out Shevchenko's full interview above.
USA Today
02-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Cory Sandhagen-Deiveson Figueiredo prediction, pick: Who rules at UFC Des Moines?
Cory Sandhagen-Deiveson Figueiredo prediction, pick: Who rules at UFC Des Moines? Bantamweights headline UFC's long-awaited return to Iowa Show Caption Hide Caption Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo | UFC on ESPN 67 Breakdown MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC on ESPN 64 main event in Des Moines, Iowa. MMA Junkie MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 67's main event between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. Cory Sandhagen UFC Des Moines preview Staple info: Record: 17-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC Height: 5'11" Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 70" Last fight: Decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov (Aug. 3, 2024) Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver2) Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing Risk management: Good Supplemental info: + WKA world kickboxing champion + Amateur kickboxing accolades + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt + 7 KO victories + 3 submission wins + 6 first-round finishes + Consistent pace and pressure + Excellent feints and footwork ^ Manages distance/draws out attacks + Variates shot selection ^ Punctuates well with bodywork + Hard leg kicks + Improved wrestling ability + Underrated scrambling ability ^ Good getups and reversals + Solid transitional grappler Deiveson Figueiredo UFC Des Moines preview Staple info: Record: 24-4-1 MMA, 13-4-1 UFC Height: 5'5" Age: 37 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68" Last fight: Decision loss to Petr Yan (Nov. 23, 2024) Camp: Team Figueiredo (Brazil) Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai Risk management: Good Supplemental info: + Former 2x UFC flyweight champion + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + Regional grappling accolades + 9 KO victories + 9 submission wins + 11 first-round finishes + KO power + Well-timed right hands/uppercuts ^ Coming forward or off the counter + Hard calf kicks + Slicing elbows from multiple ranges + Strong inside the clinch + Improved wrestling ability ^ Solid reactive shots + Transitions well from topside ^ Dangerous strikes and submissions Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo point of interest: Flyweight fisticuffs The main event in Iowa features a flyweight showdown between two top-five talents who aren't afraid to exchange fisticuffs. Appearing to be a pressure-fighting wildman on the Brazilian regional scene, Deiveson Figueiredo has seemingly sharpened his style and approach since touching down in the UFC octagon. Figueiredo still relies heavily upon his head and trunk movement but will now add a long-framing defense from both stances, as well as flick out more jabs and straight shots to help establish his range. This approach both accentuates Figueiredo's length, as well as entices risky entries from his opposition that open them up for the Brazilian's powerful counters. Whether Figueiredo is unloading counter crosses or uppercuts, the former flyweight champ has traditionally demonstrated stellar timing and anticipation to go along with his John Lineker-like power and knockdown rate. Figueiredo has also leaned more on his calf kicks since his series with Brandon Moreno, demonstrating the ability to land stance-altering shots at range. Although attacking his opponent's lower extremities will likely serve Figueiredo well, defensive susceptibility to calf kicks appears to be a potent two-way street in this matchup. Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo breakdown: Potential grappling threats Enter Cory Sandhagen. Coming up through the kickboxing ranks in the quiet martial arts hotbed of Colorado, Sandhagen has clearly studied and absorbed a lot in what has been a fun career to watch thus far. Utilizing his long and lean frame like second nature, Sandhagen is a rangy kickboxer who appears comfortable poking and prodding his opposition with accurate jabs and leg kicks from either stance. Shifting or drop-stepping at a moment's notice, the 33-year-old talent can piece together flowing, varied offense off of whatever building materials are offered up to him. Whether Sandhagen is bringing back Jose Aldo's patented "Dutchie" combination or launching jumping switch-knees that give me flashbacks to Liu Kang's bicycle kick, he certainly knows how to keep things spicy. And when Sandhagen is feeling in stride, it's not uncommon to see the good samaritan show a sadistic smile after punctuating his presence with deep hooks or uppercuts to the body. However, despite the multi-leveled attacks, Sandhagen is not exactly impervious from a defensive standpoint and will have to respect the potential level-changing counters coming his way. Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo odds The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the American, listing Sandhagen -520 and Figueiredo +350 via FanDuel. Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo prediction, pick Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, the betting spread above is a bit wide for my liking. Although Figueiredo is clearly past prime, the former flyweight champion has proven to be an effective fighter since moving up to bantamweight. Aside from still having the punching power to change the perspective on a round, Figueiredo has also become a much more willing grappler in this division. Should Sandhagen get lackadaisical in transition, then no one should be shocked if Figueiredo can score some big moments or back positions that sway rounds his way. However, even though taking a flier on Figueiredo at these odds is tempting, I can't ignore the fact that the Brazilian – even in his more recent wins – appears to be walking a fine line as far as establishing a solid output or winning conditions go. Add in the fact that Sandhagen is incredibly durable and hard to finish on the feet or the floor, and I suspect that "Sandman" can survive the scares and pull away with his superior output and bodywork down the stretch. The pick is Sandhagen by unanimous decision. Prediction: Sandhagen by decision Cory Sandhagen, Deiveson Figueiredo start time, where to watch As the main event, Sandhagen and Figueiredo are expected to make their walks to the cage at approximately 12:40 a.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN2 and streams on ESPN+.
