Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick: Are wide odds justified?

USA Today

16-05-2025

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick: Are wide odds justified? Undefeated Michael Morales enters as a huge favorite against former title challenger Gilbert Burns. Are the oddsmakers dismissing the savvy veteran?
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Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction | UFC Fight Night 256 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC Fight Night 256 in Las Vegas.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 256 main event between welterweight contenders Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales.
Gilbert Burns UFC Fight Night 256 preview
Staple info:
Record : 22-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC
: 22-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC Height : 5'5" Age: 37 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5"
: 5'5" Age: 37 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65.5" Last fight : Decision loss to Sean Brady (Sept. 27, 2024)
: Decision loss to Sean Brady (Sept. 27, 2024) Camp : Kill Cliff FC (Florida)
: Kill Cliff FC (Florida) Stance/striking style : Orthodox/kickboxing
: Orthodox/kickboxing Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree)
+ 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion
+ Multiple grappling accolades (in and out of the gi)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking flow
^ Dangerous counter right hand
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Works well from top or bottom
Michael Morales UFC Fight Night 256 preview
Staple info:
Record : 17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC
: 17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC Height : 6'0" Age: 25 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 79"
: 6'0" Age: 25 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 79" Last fight: TKO win over Neil Magny (Aug. 24, 2024)
TKO win over Neil Magny (Aug. 24, 2024) Camp : Entram Gym (Mexico)
: Entram Gym (Mexico) Stance/striking style : Orthodox/muay Thai
: Orthodox/muay Thai Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ National champion freestyle wrestling (Ecuador)
+ National champion in muay Thai (Ecuador)
+ 12 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Long and stiff jab
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Suplexes to strikes off the break
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Shows solid grappling from topside
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales point of interest: Striking in the small cage
The main event in Las Vegas features a potential welterweight war between top 15 fighters.
Coming off of three consecutive contests inside the UFC's Apex, Morales is more than familiar with the fighting area of the smaller octagon.
Although Morales still seems to be sorting out his stylistic process, the Ecuadorian does a decent job of staying long and fighting to his frame. From stiff jabs to counter crosses, Morales offers up some tricky hurdles for those trying to close the distance on him. When feeling in stride, Morales will also let loose with some explosive flying knees up the centerline.
Still, he'll need to be careful about throwing himself out of position, considering his current counterpart, Burns.
An accomplished grappler who immersed himself in all facets of martial arts, Burns has steadily become a formidable threat on the feet.
Another fighter under the care of coach Hooft, we have seen 'Durinho' build upon his pressuring sensibilities in the striking department. Whether he's working off of his jab or his opponent's, Burns always seems to have a heavy right hook chambered in the rear, as he typically looks to inch his way forward with offense that's wired on a hair-trigger.
Burns, who is a solid leg kicker in his own right, has also shown signs of improving his defensive awareness in regards to both checking and countering leg kicks thrown his way. I'm not sure how much Morales will give him to work off of in the kicking department, so I'll be curious to see if Burns looks to fill that vacancy on the feet this Saturday.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity lies, no one should be surprised if Burns looks to get this fight to the floor.
An IBJJF world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns has smartly sharpened his surrounding skill sets since stepping onto the MMA scene.
Working with wrestling influences and standouts like Greg Jones to catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson, Burns has been able to develop the groundwork to assist his game during this welterweight run. Integrating these crucial styles into his repertoire, there are now few to no positions that Burns is not comfortable or capable of working from.
Whether Burns is defending takedowns along the fence and striking off the breaks or hitting sweet trips and chaining takedowns of his own, the Brazilian's wrestling improvements remain to be one of the things that quietly impresses me most. However, as underrated as that part of his game may be, taking down Morales could be difficult given his strong athletic frame and wrestling background.
A freestyle wrestling champion in his home country of Ecuador, Morales reminds me of a young Jon Jones in the way in which opportunistic offense comes to his mind. From spinning elbows off clinch breaks to emphatic suplexes to punctuate rounds, Morales displays the building blocks to justify said claims.
That said, Morales, despite otherwise having solid balance and defensive fundamentals, can get a bit lackadaisical at times when fighting in the clinch or off his back, often waiting for opportunistic moments from his opponent's offense before exploding into something.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the younger fighter, listing Morales -950 and Burns +540 via FanDuel.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, pick
I know there's nothing that MMA gamblers love more than the opportunity to bet a hyped product opposite an aging fighter, but the betting spread listed above is almost criminal at this point.
I don't disagree that Morales is favored, but odds north of 8-1 suggest that this is much more of a sure thing than it has any right to be. Aside from the fact that Morales is young and not nearly as experienced as Burns, the product from Ecuador appears to lack any semblance of a reliable process, often relying on opportunistic moments for his skills and athleticism to shine.
Still, what Morales does do well might sadly be enough to see him through in this spot.
Although Burns could certainly give a veteran lesson if this fight goes to the ground, Morales' clinch presence and range weapons may be too strong and sturdy a force for the Brazilian to break through.
Add in the fact that checking jabs and counter-crosses have traditionally been the common culprit for Burns' standing, and I can't help but side with the up-and-comer here. There's nothing I'd love more than to see Burns upset the apple cart as a huge underdog, but the fact that he's yet to beat a fighter in their athletic prime since moving up to welterweight makes my stylistic reads from the sentence prior even harder to ignore.
It's dog or pass from a betting perspective, but the official pick is Morales by knockout in Round 2.
Prediction: Morales inside the distance
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales start time, how to watch
As the main event, Burns and Morales are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+.