Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick: Is upset brewing at UFC on ESPN 68?

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2 days ago

Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick: Is upset brewing at UFC on ESPN 68? Maycee Barber has won six straight, but she's a significant underdog against Erin Blanchfield in Las Vegas.
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Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction | UFC on ESPN 68 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC on ESPN 68 in Las Vegas.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 68 main event between women's flyweight contenders Erin Blanchfield and Macyee Barber.
Erin Blanchfield UFC on ESPN 68 preview
Staple info:
Record: 13-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC
Height: 5'4" Age: 26 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68"
Last fight: Decision win over Rose Namajunas (Nov. 2, 2024)
Camp: MK Muay Thai (New Jersey)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ EBI flyweight champion
+ 2 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking
^ Stance shifts, kicks and combos
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good frames, elbows and knees
+ Serviceable takedown ability
^ Chains well off of singles
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+/- 3-0 inside the UFC Apex
Maycee Barber UFC on ESPN 68 preview
Staple info:
Record: 14-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC
Height: 5'5" Age: 27 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65"
Last fight: Decision win over Katlyn Cerminara (March 9, 2024)
Camp: Team Alpha Male/High Altitude Martial Arts (Denver)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Karate black belt (2nd degree)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 6 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Hard kicks and combos
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good frames, elbows and knees
+ Servicable takedown ability
+ Improved takedown defense and getups
+ Solid ground striking
+/-2-1 in the UFC Apex
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber point of interest: Striking in the small cage
The main event in Las Vegas features a women's flyweight affair between two top-five fighters familiar with exchanging in the smaller octagon of the Apex.
Initially coming through Dana White's Contender Series when it was still hosted in the old "TUF" gym, Maycee Barber has quietly accrued some solid experience under the UFC banner – though in that experience, she never had missed weight until Friday. Barber came in a half-pound heavy for the headliner.
A large and powerful athlete for her division, Barber can pack some serious pop compared to her contemporaries. "The Future" still maintains her in-and-out sensibilities from her background in karate, but Barber has made steady efforts to settle down and improve her fundamental striking since spreading her time around with other camps like Team Alpha Male and company.
Now working with striking coaches like Guilherme Faria, Barber has slowly shown more of a feinting and jabbing process as opposed to wading forward with naked kicks and punches.
Primarily fighting from southpaw, Barber wields dangerous offerings off of her left side that range from head kicks to crosses. And when Barber is feeling in stride and can corral her opponents to the cage, she unleashes wicked elbows and Eddie Alvarez-esque punching combos with how animated her hooks can get.
That said, Barber is not beyond being taxed for coming in hot and will need to be careful opposite Erin Blanchfield.
Although Blanchfield has been primarily billed as a grappler, the native New Yorker has made measurable strides in her striking game since working with MK Muay Thai in New Jersey. Steadily pressuring forward behind a prodding jab, Blanchfield employs solid form in her straight punches and front teeps to enter space.
When feeling in stride, Blanchfield can shift to southpaw where she has shown a knack for left crosses and high kicks.
Once Blanchfield can establish herself in the clinch, the 26-year-old smartly prioritizes frames that allow her to get off deceptively effective elbows and knees in close. But considering that Barber also makes her money in this space, I'll be curious to see how the closed-quarter combat shakes out.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering Blanchfield's on-paper edges and opportunistic submission acumen, no one should be shocked if "Ice Cold" looks for takedowns early and often.
Since storming onto the scene as the first female EBI flyweight champion, Blanchfield has only continued to grow her grappling abilities in mixed martial arts. Appearing to be an avid driller in the wrestling realm, Blanchfield sequences her attacks like second nature, chaining particularly well from single-leg positions.
Whether Blanchfield is sweeping the standing leg or looking to double off into a more traditional shot, the 7-year pro is certainly not short on ideas in this space. Once she's able to secure top position off of takedowns, Blanchfield's brand of high-percentage choices continues to show itself on the floor.
From cross-wrist rides that lead to pins to kimura traps that allow for positional advances, Blanchfield displays a bevy of high-level tactics that she regularly puts to practice in her fights. Still, larger and stronger athletes have shown to be difficult for Blanchfield to control, so I'm curious as to how she'll stack up against Barber.
Already strong and confident in the clinch from an offensive standpoint, Barber presents a strong first layer of defense for her opponents to break through.
Having a good sense for establishing over-under positions, Barber can work her way out of negative positions and pile on impactful damage in the small openings. Barber's hips seem strong both in the open and against the fence, making double-legs particularly difficult to hit on her (unless her kicks are being countered, of course).
When taken down, Barber has shown a suspect bottom game in past fights as far as her complacency and seeming lack of options.
However, in Barber's defense, she has shown smarter tactical choices in regard to utilizing everything from underhooks to the cage to get back to her feet. And when Babrer is working from top position, she possesses some solid ground and pound that Blanchfield will need to respect.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the New Jersey native, listing Blanchfield -250 and Barber +190 via FanDuel.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber prediction, pick
Although I don't disagree with who is favored, the betting line listed above is starting to get a bit too wide for my liking.
Aside from the fact that women's MMA carries a special kind of volatility from a handicapping and prognostication perspective, Barber has proven to possess some serious X-factors that always make her a live underdog. Whether we're talking about Barber's standout power or her judge-swaying style (which has earned her a couple of questionable scorecards in the UFC), she'll be very lively from start to finish should she avoid getting washed by Blanchfield on the mat.
The potential problem, however, is that Blanchfield – who is very difficult to dissuade in victory or defeat – has some takedown tools that could be very effective against Barber.
So long as Blanchfield doesn't get stuck inside of clinch space with a more dangerous threat in Barber, then I see her single-leg chaining ability being problematic for a first-layer defender who emphasizes on hips and upper-body controls. And though we should all leave some room to be surprised when it comes to Barber and any potential improvements she's made during this one-year layoff she's coming off of, the 27-year-old has shown little outside of recent underhook getup attempts (which can get her front choked if she's not careful) that gives me enough confidence to back her here.
Add in the fact that this fight is taking place in the smaller octagon of the Apex, and I can't help but side with Blanchfield to get her win conditions and potentially take Barber to "exposure city" via a rear-naked choke in Round 2.
Prediction: Blanchfield inside the distance
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber start time, how to watch
As the main event, Burns and Morales are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.