Why was the flooding in Texas so bad? A perfect storm of circumstances created a worst-case scenario

CNN

08-07-2025

In the early hours of Independence Day, rain pelted sleeping communities in central Texas. No one knew yet how devastating the storm would become.
Entire neighborhoods vanished in flash flooding throughout the weekend, while residents and campers were swept away in the surging waters.
The death toll across the state eclipsed 100 by Tuesday, and search and rescue efforts persist.
As communities continue recovering from the catastrophic floods, questions swirl around how this tragedy happened.
Several compounding factors made the flooding in central Texas a worst-case scenario.
The National Weather Service began forecasting the threat of flooding in Kerr County as early as Thursday morning with a hazardous flood outlook.
But the conditions turned deadly when more than an entire summer's worth of rain fell in some areas over just a few hours Friday morning.
Hunt, Texas, received about 6.5 inches of rain in just three hours — a 1-in-100-year rainfall event for the area.
Drought conditions in central Texas are among the worst in the United States, making it difficult for the bone-dry soil to absorb rain and leaving the area particularly susceptible to flooding.
The pouring rain sent river levels surging and triggered flash flooding.
The Guadalupe River, which runs along several summer camps, rose from about 3 feet to 30 feet on Friday.
The overwhelming rainfall is another example of rising global temperatures pushing weather toward extremes, events that are becoming more and more frequent.
Texas has already seen multiple dangerous flooding events this year, and the United States saw a record number of flash flood emergencies last year.
There are at least 18 camps, including Camp Mystic, situated along the Guadalupe River. Many of them are in areas known to flood.
Some, like Camp Mystic, were in session when the floods hit. The all-girls Christian camp had about 750 campers on site.
As the nearby river rose more than 20 feet in less than two hours during Friday's rains, at least 12 of those camps sustained flood damage. Some of it was catastrophic.
When more rain falls than the ground can absorb, it runs downhill, pulled by gravity into streams, creeks and rivers. The rain fills the waterways beyond their banks and the excess overflows in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.
Camp Mystic is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged. Much of the camp carries at least some level of known flood risk, according to FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layer.
The massive flooding seemed to have ripped the wall off at least one building at Camp Mystic, leaving a cabin covered in dirt and mud, with girls' mattresses strewn across the floor, photos of the devastation show. The water line can be seen nearly reaching the doorway.
Twenty-seven young campers and counselors from Camp Mystic were killed in the flooding, officials said, and 10 girls and one counselor are still missing.
Ten minutes north on the South Fork is Camp La Junta, a boys' camp. Large swaths of Camp La Junta's property also coincide with Guadalupe's floodway or in the 100-year flood zone, according to FEMA's National Flood Hazard Layer. Though several of its buildings are located in the lower-risk zone, or outside flood zones entirely.
Everyone at Camp La Junta is safe and accounted for, the camp announced Friday.
Flash flooding during the overnight hours can present increased dangers and challenges.
Many people in Texas were asleep in the early hours of Friday when the floods began to swell, making it harder to respond to weather warnings and alerts, especially in places like Hunt that have extremely limited cell service.
But even with phone access, residents in the area are inundated with weather watches and warnings at all times of day and night. In Texas Hill Country, where flash flooding is triggered frequently by summertime thunderstorms, so-called warning fatigue can settle in.
Critical warnings came in the surrounding areas — a flash flood warning was issued for Kerr County at 1:14 a.m., followed by a series of escalating warnings that culminated in a flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m. The city of Kerrville was issued a flash flood emergency at 5:34 a.m.
CNN's Brian Todd breaks down the warnings from the National Weather Service ahead of the deadly and catastrophic flooding in the Texas Hill Country. But the blackness of night can also make it difficult for people escaping flooding to gauge water depths, see rising water levels and navigate potential hazards like debris or downed power lines in the water.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said the area had floods all the time, but officials had no reason to believe one this destructive was coming.
'We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here,' he said.
'None whatsoever.'
CNN's Mary Gilbert, Renée Rigdon and Angela Fritz contributed to this report.