The 4 North Korean officials arrested over a botched destroyer launch are in mortal danger

Business Insider

6 days ago

Four officials detained after a North Korean destroyer was badly damaged on the day of its ceremonial launch into the water face potentially fatal consequences at the hands of Kim Jong Un, North Korean experts told Business Insider.
"I would say there's a very good chance they'd be executed," Joseph S. Bermudez, an analyst in North Korean defense at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said.
One striking aspect was the speed at which state-controlled North Korean media publicized the incident that damaged its newest warship, and also named the officials.
The highly public nature of the announcements suggests Kim is "very upset," Bermudez added.
How it all went wrong
The arrests came within days of the botched launch of the nameless 5,000-ton destroyer, which saw the ship topple onto its side and its hull damaged. It's believed the mechanism that rolled the ship into the water malfunctioned, leaving the ship's bow stuck on the pier while its aft section lying in the water and flooded.
State-run outlets announced the arrests, placing the blame squarely on the shoulders of the shipyard's chief engineer, the head of the hull construction workshop, and a deputy manager for administrative affairs.
At the top of the list: Ri Hyong Son, a vice director of the Munitions Industry Department of the Korean Workers' Party Central Committee, who was also arrested.
The warship was one of two next-generation Choe Hyon-class destroyers. The first, the titular Choe Hyon, launched a month ago to great fanfare at Nampo Harbor on the peninsula's western coast.
However, the second was constructed at the eastern Chongjin Shipyard, which does not typically produce large warships, Bermudez told BI.
Rather than launching it in drydock or from a slipway, North Korea attempted a sideways launch — something the workers may not have been well-practiced at with a larger vessel, he said.
When it came to the bigger ship, "all of a sudden, you're starting to use a piece that hasn't been used in years," he said.
As of Monday, satellite images showed that the bow of the ship still stuck on the pier, with evidence of a dredging operation at the harbor entrance.
Why Kim is turning up the heat
Following the launch, state media put the "responsible" officials on blast.
This was a choice.
"Normally these things are done quietly," Bermudez said.
Within hours of the disaster, the Pyongyang Times reported Kim denouncing it at length, calling it a "criminal act" that "could not be tolerated." Multiple detailed updates to the recovery operation have followed.
The Choe Hyon-class destroyer is a step towards a major ambition of Kim's: transforming North Korea's primarily coastal navy into a blue-water fleet, Bermudez said.
A setback to that project is a "slap in the face" for Kim, he added.
Although the full capabilities of the new ship are not yet known, its sister ship the Choe Hyon — the first in the class — wields modern capabilities like an air defence system and vertically launched missiles.
State media has claimed it can carry nuclear-capable missiles — in which case, the program is "very much interlinked with North Korea's broader nuclear ambitions," according to Edward Howell, an expert on North Korean politics at the University of Oxford.
"The fact that it failed so miserably was pretty embarrassing for Kim," who is "captivated" by developing naval power, Bruce Bennett, a North Korea-focused defense analyst at the RAND think tank, told BI.
It's even more galling in the wake of large-scale South Korean naval drills in the Yellow Sea earlier this month — which showcased its naval power after the launch of the first Choe Hyon.
And there was another reason to denounce the named officials: In terms of domestic politics, "it puts everybody on notice," Bermudez said.
When big programs that really matter to Kim fail, "he's going to take retribution," he added.
Although officials have now said the damage is not as bad as first assessed — something that BI could not independently verify — it's still going to be treated with utmost seriousness in order to "deal a telling blow to incautiousness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricist attitude prevailing in any field," state media declared.
A generational punishment
It's unclear exactly what will happen to the officials named.
Various punishments are possible through the judicial system, but all too often, "'due process' is a bullet in the head," RAND's Bennett said.
In January, North Korea executed two unnamed nuclear power plant construction researchers for failing to complete their project and improve technological standards, Daily NK reported. Their junior colleagues were transported to what is believed to be a political prison camp, the outlet reported.
Regardless of what punishment is handed down, one thing is likely: it'll also hit the officials' families. In the logic of the North Korean justice system, convictions are "because of a significant family flaw," Bennett said. "Therefore three generations of the family need to be dealt with."
That could mean the officials' spouses, parents, and even kids could be sent to grim prison camps — and could also be downgraded within the country's system of social hierarchy, Songbun.
"We don't know what their fates will be," said Howell. "Their fates don't look to be very pleasant."
"But crucially," he added, "this is going to make no impact on North Korea's broader quest for naval modernization, military modernization."