How likely will the US join Israel in its war against Iran? Analysts weigh in
As the Israel-Iran aerial war enters its sixth day on Wednesday (Jun 18), speculation is mounting that the United States is considering joining its ally Israel in direct military action against Tehran.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender', warning that Washington's patience was wearing thin.
He has reportedly spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the phone, while the US military is said to be deploying more aircraft to the Middle East, including fighter jets and refuelling tankers.
Analysts told CNA this could mean Trump bringing the US into the conflict, though they cautioned it remains tough to tell for certain.
'Calling for the unconditional surrender of a sovereign nation state is pretty extreme. We haven't heard that rhetoric very often,' noted politics professor Stephen Zunes from the University of San Francisco.
'It has really sent some shock waves and is making people think that this is not just going to be a series of strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, but something much bigger.'
He pointed to how Israel's military and Trump have urged residents to evacuate from Iran's capital city of Tehran, which has a population of more than 9 million.
'There, indeed, could be a much bigger war, and the United States itself might get involved,' Zunes said.
In Iran, officials have reported at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians. In Israel, officials said 24 civilians have been killed.
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CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Iran's supreme leader says any US strikes on Iran will have serious consequences
DUBAI: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded on Wednesday (Jun 18) to US President Donald Trump's call for the country to surrender, warning that any US strike will have "serious irreparable consequences". Iranians do not respond well to threats, he said in a televised address, adding that the country will not accept an imposed peace or war. A flurry of social media posts from Trump on Tuesday, including a demand for Iran's unconditional surrender and a post musing about killing Khamenei, increased speculation that he could bring the United States into the war. A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team were considering a number of options, which included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Iran had conveyed to Washington that it would retaliate against the United States for any direct participation, its ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, said. He said he already saw the US as "complicit in what Israel is doing". "We will not show any reluctance in defending our people, security and land - we will respond seriously and strongly, without restraint." Thousands of people were fleeing Tehran on Wednesday after Trump said they should leave the capital, while a source said Trump was considering options that include joining Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites. An Israeli military official said 50 Israeli jets had struck around 20 targets in Tehran overnight, including sites producing raw materials, components and manufacturing systems for missiles. Israel told residents in a southwestern area of Tehran to evacuate so its air force could strike. Iran responded with a fresh volley of missiles at Israel, and a new warning that it would respond against the United States if Washington joined the war. Roads north out of Tehran were jammed with traffic. "We left Tehran this morning. My children were frightened, and we're going to stay at my brother's house near Karaj," Alireza, 37, a businessman, told Reuters by phone. Arezou, 31, had made it out of the capital and was in the nearby resort town of Lavasan. "We will stay here as long as this war continues. My friend's house in Tehran was attacked and her brother was injured. They are civilians," she told Reuters. "Why are we paying the price for the regime's decision to pursue a nuclear programme?' Iran has been exploring options for leverage, including veiled threats to hit the global oil market by restricting access to the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important shipping artery for oil, which it controls. A Former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi, said on X that Iran should quickly start requiring permission for tankers transiting the strait, a move he said would be "decisive" if implemented quickly. Iran's Oil Ministry and Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. BAN ON FILMING Inside Iran, the biggest attacks since war with Iraq in the 1980s have wiped out an echelon of senior leadership. Authorities are intent on preventing panic and shortages, and fewer images of destruction have been allowed to circulate than in the early days of the bombing, when state media showed pictures of explosions, fires and flattened apartments. A ban on filming by the public has been imposed. Authorities have placed limits on how much fuel can be purchased. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told state TV that restrictions were in place to prevent shortages but there would be no problem supplying fuel to the public. With Khamenei's main military and security advisers killed by Israeli strikes, the leader's inner circle has been narrowed, raising the risk that he could make strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process. Iranian officials have reported at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, though that toll has not been updated for days. In Israel, Iran's retaliatory strikes are the first time in decades of shadow war and proxy conflict that a significant number of missiles fired from Iran have penetrated defences, killing Israelis in their homes. Since Friday, Iran has fired around 400 missiles at Israel, some 40 of which have pierced through air defences, killing 24 people, all of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities. Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv on Wednesday. The military said two barrages of Iranian missiles were launched toward Israel in the first two hours of Wednesday morning. Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency reported clashes early on Wednesday between security forces and unidentified gunmen in the city of Rey, south of Tehran, adding that assailants may be linked to Israel and intended to carry out "terrorist operations in densely populated areas of the capital". Reuters could not independently verify the situation there. Iranian news websites said Israel was attacking a university linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards in the country's east, and the Khojir ballistic missile facility near Tehran, which was also targeted by Israeli airstrikes last October. TRUMP KEEPS WORLD GUESSING Trump's social media posts - which have ranged from diplomatic offers to end the war to threats to join it - have created uncertainty over his intentions. The US has so far taken only indirect actions in the conflict, including helping to shoot down missiles fired toward Israel. But Washington has capabilities that Israel lacks, including massive bombs able to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment plant, built deep under a mountain at Fordow. On Tuesday he mused about killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," he wrote on Truth Social. "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now ... Our patience is wearing thin." Three minutes later Trump posted, "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" The US is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes, three US officials told Reuters. A source with access to US intelligence reports said Iran had moved some ballistic missile launchers, but it was difficult to determine if they were targeting US forces or Israel. Iran, for its part, has lost much of its capability to retaliate against Israel through proxy fighters close to Israeli borders during the past 20 months of Israel's war in Gaza. Israel has pounded Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, propped up by Iran through 13 years of war, was toppled last year.
CNA
2 hours ago
- CNA
Two Iran nuclear sites destroyed in Israel strikes: UN
TEHRAN: The UN nuclear watchdog said Israeli strikes on Wednesday (Jun 18) destroyed two buildings making centrifuge components for Iran's nuclear programme near Tehran, while Iran said it fired hypersonic missiles as the arch foes traded fire for a sixth day. Hours after United States President Donald Trump demanded Iran's surrender, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed his country would show "no mercy" towards Israel's leadership. Khamenei, in power since 1989 and the final arbiter of all matters of state in Iran, was to deliver a televised speech Wednesday. Trump insists the US has played no part in ally Israel's bombing campaign, but also warned his patience was wearing thin. The long-range blitz began Friday, when Israel launched a massive bombing campaign that prompted Iran to respond with missiles and drones. After the Israeli military issued a warning for civilians to leave one district of Tehran for their safety, Israeli warplanes hit the capital early Wednesday. "More than 50 Israeli Air Force fighter jets ... carried out a series of air strikes in the Tehran area over the past few hours," the Israeli military said, adding that several weapons manufacturing facilities were hit. "As part of the broad effort to disrupt Iran's nuclear weapons development programme, a centrifuge production facility in Tehran was targeted." Centrifuges are vital for uranium enrichment, the sensitive process that can produce fuel for reactors or, in highly extended form, the core of a nuclear warhead. The strikes destroyed two buildings making centrifuge components for Iran's nuclear programme in Karaj, a satellite city of Tehran, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday. In another strike on a site in Tehran, "one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested", the agency added in a post on X. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had launched hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles at Tel Aviv. Hypersonic missiles travel at more than five times the speed of sound and can manoeuvre mid-flight, making them harder to track and intercept. No missile struck Tel Aviv overnight, despite Iran's claims that its attacks were "repeatedly shaking the shelters", though AFP photos showed Israel's air defence systems activated to intercept missiles over the commercial hub. Iran also sent a "swarm of drones" towards Israel, while the Israeli military said it had intercepted a total of 10 drones launched from Iran. It said one of its own drones had been shot down over Iran. "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" Trump fuelled speculation about US intervention when he made a hasty exit from the G7 summit in Canada, where the leaders of the club of wealthy democracies called for de-escalation but backed Israel's "right to defend itself". Back in Washington on Tuesday, Trump demanded the Islamic Republic's "unconditional surrender". He also boasted that the US could easily assassinate Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. Trump met with his National Security Council to discuss the conflict. There was no immediate public statement after the hour and 20 minute meeting. US officials stressed Trump has not yet made a decision about any intervention. Hours later, Khamenei responded with a post on X, saying: "We must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy." EVACUATIONS Israel's attacks have hit nuclear and military facilities around Iran, as well as residential areas. Residential areas in Israel have also been hit, and foreign governments have scrambled to evacuate their citizens from both countries. Since Friday, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and hundreds wounded, according to Netanyahu's office. Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. It has not issued an updated toll since then. More than 700 foreigners living in Iran have crossed into neighbouring Azerbaijan and Armenia since Israel launched its campaign, according to government figures. On Tuesday in Tehran, long queues stretched outside bakeries and petrol stations as people rushed to stock up on fuel and basic supplies. Iran's ISNA and Tasnim news agencies on Wednesday reported that five suspected agents of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency had been detained, on charges of tarnishing the country's image online. With air raid sirens regularly blaring in Tel Aviv, some people relocated to an underground parking lot below a shopping mall. "We've decided to permanently set camp here until it's all clear, I guess," Mali Papirany, 30, told AFP. NUCLEAR FACILITIES After a prolonged shadow war, Israel said its surprise air campaign was aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons - an ambition Tehran denies. The UN nuclear watchdog said there appeared to have been "direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls" at Iran's Natanz facility. Israel has maintained ambiguity regarding its own atomic activities, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says it has 90 nuclear warheads. The conflict derailed a running series of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, with Iran saying after the start of Israel's campaign that it would not negotiate with the US while under attack.
AsiaOne
3 hours ago
- AsiaOne
Thousands flee Tehran, source says Trump's options include joining Israel in strikes, World News
JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON/DUBAI — Thousands of people were fleeing Tehran on Wednesday (June 18) after US President Donald Trump said they should leave the capital, while a source said Trump was considering options that include joining Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites. Iran and Israel launched new missile strikes at each other after Trump called for Tehran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Israel told residents in a southwestern area of Tehran to evacuate so its air force could strike Iranian military installations. Iranian media reported heavy traffic on roads heading from the capital towards northern provinces. Authorities have placed limits on how much fuel can be purchased. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told state TV that restrictions were in place to prevent shortages but there would be no problem supplying fuel to the public. In Israel, explosions were heard over Tel Aviv. The military said two barrages of Iranian missiles were launched toward Israel in the first two hours of Wednesday morning. Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency reported clashes early on Wednesday between security forces and unidentified gunmen in the city of Rey, south of Tehran, adding the assailants may be linked to Israel and intended to carry out "terrorist operations in densely populated areas of the capital". Iranian news websites said Israel was also attacking a university linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards in the country's east, and the Khojir ballistic missile facility near Tehran, which was also targeted by Israeli airstrikes last October. An Israeli military official said 50 fighter jets struck around 20 targets in Tehran overnight, including sites producing raw materials, components and manufacturing systems for missiles. Iranian officials have reported at least 224 deaths, mostly civilians, though that toll has not been updated for days. Since Friday, Iran has fired around 400 missiles at Israel, some 40 of which have pierced through air defences, killing 24 people, all of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities. Israel began flying home citizens stranded abroad on Wednesday, launching a phased airlift operation after the country's surprise military strike on Iran left tens of thousands of Israelis stuck overseas. The prospect of the United States joining the war has jolted international markets. Israel says its main aim is to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, but Iran's nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow is buried under a mountain where only massive US bombs could probably reach it. A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team were considering a number of options, which included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone on Tuesday and met for 90 minutes with his National Security Council on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the conflict. In a flurry of statements on social media on Tuesday, he openly mused about killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," he wrote on Truth Social. "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now... Our patience is wearing thin." Three minutes later Trump posted, "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Trump's sometimes contradictory and cryptic messaging about the conflict between close US ally Israel and longtime foe Iran has deepened the uncertainty surrounding the crisis. His public comments have ranged from military threats to diplomatic overtures. The US is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes, three US officials told Reuters. The US has so far taken only indirect actions in the conflict, including helping to shoot down missiles fired toward Israel. Iran has said it would retaliate against US bases if Washington joins the war. A source with access to US intelligence reports said Iran had moved some ballistic missile launchers, but it was difficult to determine if they were targeting US forces or Israel. Britain's leader Keir Starmer, speaking at the Group of Seven nations summit in Canada that Trump left early, said there was no indication the US was about to enter the conflict. Regional influence weakens Khamenei's main military and security advisers have been killed by Israeli strikes, hollowing out his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process. The strikes, which constitute the most dangerous security breach targeting Iranian leaders since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, have prompted the country's cybersecurity command to ban officials from using communications devices and mobile phones, Fars news agency reported. Ever since Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7, 2023, and triggered the Gaza war, Khamenei's regional influence has waned as Israel has pounded Iran's proxies — from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Iran's close ally, Syria's autocratic leader Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted. Israel launched its air war on Friday after saying it had concluded the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing a weapon of mass destruction. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and says its nuclear programme is peaceful. Netanyahu has stressed that he will not back down until Iran's nuclear development is disabled. Trump has said the Israeli assault could end if Iran agrees to strict curbs on enrichment. [[nid:719178]]
