Lowy report finds Pacific nations 'grappling with a tidal wave of debt repayments' to China

RNZ News

5 days ago

By foreign affairs reporter
Stephen Dziedzic
, ABC
China has lent money to Vanuatu financing new roads for its outer islands.
Photo:
Facebook / China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation
In short:
What's next?
New research shows that China has emerged as the world's largest creditor for developing nations, which are due to pay back at least $54 billion to Beijing this year.
Australian foreign policy think tank the Lowy Institute has crunched data from the World Bank and found some of the world's poorest countries are now
facing "record high debt payments" to China
.
China rapidly boosted investments in infrastructure last decade, funding railways, ports and roads across the developing world under its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative - projects which have often been welcomed by governments across Latin America, Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia.
But the lending has also placed pressure on government balance sheets around the world.
Beijing has sharply pulled back lending in the last five to 10 years, but the Lowy Institute's Riley Duke said bills from earlier loans were now starting to land.
"China's earlier lending boom, combined with the structure of its loans, made a surge in debt servicing costs inevitable," Duke said.
"Because China's Belt and Road lending spree peaked in the mid-2010s, those grace periods began expiring in the early 2020s."
"It was always likely to be a crunch period for developing country repayments to China."
The problem has been exacerbated by China's move to defer debt repayments during the Covid-19 pandemic, a move which was "helpful at the time" but is now "heightening…the current repayment spike".
The picture painted by the report is incomplete, because China typically does not provide data for its loans, and information isn't available for many developed nations.
But Duke said it was obvious that developing countries - including in the Pacific - were now "grappling with a tidal wave of debt repayments and interest costs".
"Now, and for the rest of this decade, China will be more debt collector than banker to the developing world," he said.
"The high debt burden facing developing countries will hamper poverty reduction and slow development progress while stoking economic and political instability risks."
Six people were killed and much of the central business district of Tonga's capital Nukuʻalofa was destroyed in the 2006 riots.
Photo:
ABC / Supplied
Pacific nations like Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu are already grappling with high levels of Chinese debt, and have been
pushing Beijing for extensions on their loans
.
For example,
Tonga borrowed heavily from China to rebuild in the wake of the devastating 2006 riots in Nuku'alofa
. It has now started gradually repaying loans worth around $190 million - a sum which Lowy says is roughly equivalent to a quarter of its GDP.
But those repayments - along with recent natural disasters - have placed significant strain on Tonga's budget, as well as stoking political controversy in the Pacific Island nation.
Australia has stepped in with significant financial support to help Tonga balance its books,
including an $85m budget support package unveiled earlier this year
.
The report says that while Chinese institutions are at times willing to push back repayment demands
, they've typically been unwilling to forgive debts - which means Beijing often faces a difficult diplomatic balancing act.
"Beijing faces a dilemma: pushing too hard for repayment could damage bilateral ties and undermine its diplomatic goals," Duke said.
"At the same time, China's lending arms, particularly its quasi-commercial institutions, face mounting pressure to recover outstanding debts."
The report said Beijing's preference to kick the can down the road could create new financial dynamics in a host of developing countries.
"As a result, China's approach to debt distress increasingly echoes the 'extend and pretend' practices of Western lenders during the 1980s Lost Decade - a period that left many low-income countries deeply indebted and ultimately required sweeping restructurings and write-downs in the 1990s."
China's foreign ministry denied Beijing was responsible for developing debt.
"China's cooperation on investment and financing with developing countries follows international practice, market principles, and the principle of debt sustainability," spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Tuesday, local time.
"A handful of countries are spreading the narrative that China is responsible for these countries' debt.
"However, they ignore the fact that multilateral financial institutions and commercial creditors from developed countries are the main creditors of developing countries, and the primary source of debt repayment pressure. Lies cannot cover truth and people can tell right from wrong."
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ABC