Corn Market Planting Season Outlook: What Traders and Hedgers Need to Know
Trading in the corn market in April is shaping up to be busy, with the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report, planting season trends, and trade policy shifts all in play. For traders and hedgers, these factors offer clues on positioning themselves. This article breaks down the key points and ends with actionable steps to make sense of the market through the planting season.
USDA WASDE Report: Supplies Are Getting Tight
The April WASDE report boosted corn. The main driver was exports, with the USDA raising its forecast by 100 million bushels to 2.55 billion, up 11% from last year and the highest in four years. Global ending stocks also dropped to 287.65 million metric tons, the lowest since 2014/15.
On the flip side, the report cut feed use by 25 million bushels, which hints at weaker demand from livestock. Exports are strong, but if domestic use keeps softening, it could limit how high prices go.
Key Corn Data from April 2025 WASDE Report
Notes:
US ending stocks were cut by ~5% from the prior estimate, driven by a 100-million-bushel increase in export projections.
Global corn carryout tightened by 0.4% from the March report, reflecting supply constraints.
Reducing feed use suggests softer domestic livestock demand, which could influence future price dynamics.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Funds Are Hesitant
The recent COT report showed hedge funds holding a net long position in corn futures, which was smaller than earlier this year. They seemed cautious, likely because of tariff talks. Commercial hedgers, like producers and end-users, were net short, which is normal as farmers lock in traditional planting season high prices. After the WASDE report, the May futures hit a six-week high, suggesting that funds started adding longs again.
The smaller fund position shows the market was nervous before the WASDE, but the report's numbers likely sparked some buying that could keep prices moving up if the data stays supportive.
Source: CME Group Exchange
The COT report shows the producers are net short (more short positions than long). An interesting picture, though: last year, corn was trading lower at about $4.70 (yellow line), and the producers only had 502K short positions. This year, corn rallied to $5.05, and the producers were aggressively selling futures as their short positions rocketed to about 1.2 million.
Source: CME Group Exchange
The Managed Money funds were aggressively net long (yellow line) at the beginning of the year but have reduced that position to almost neutral as of the recent COT report.
Planting Season: Weather and Timing Matter
From April to the peak of planting in May and June, corn prices often swing based on how planting goes and what the weather does. The USDA's March Prospective Plantings report looks early at 2025 corn acres, but the June Acreage report will nail down the actual numbers and can move markets. If planting goes smoothly, prices tend to dip as supply looks good. If planting is delayed or the weather turns bad, prices can jump.
Right now, planting is off to a slow start. The USDA's April Crop Progress report showed little seeding done in the Corn Belt, and dry conditions in the Plains could make it tough to establish crops. NOAA's April 21–27 forecast calls for warmer weather, which might speed things up but could also stress crops if rain doesn't come.
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
Using seasonal patterns gives traders a solid edge by highlighting historical price trends in the corn market based on decades of historical data. MRCI's detailed 15-year charts show when prices typically rise or fall, like dips during planting or spikes during pollination, helping traders time their entries and exits. For example, if MRCI data flags a bullish July pattern and the 2025 planting delays persist, traders can lean into long positions more confidently. These patterns aren't guaranteed, but seasonal patterns let traders make sharper decisions by blending history with current market signals.
Trade Policy and Global Factors: The Wildcards
Trade policy is a big question mark. The 90-day tariff pause from President Trump has calmed things down for now, but any changes could mess with exports. A stronger dollar might also make US corn less competitive, though demand is holding up, with weekly export sales needing to hit 11.3 million bushels to match USDA estimates.
Globally, Brazil's corn crop is a concern. Forecasters are discussing dry weather during pollination, which could cut yields and tighten global supplies even more. This, along with the WASDE numbers, keeps the market on edge but with room for prices to climb.
What Traders and Hedgers May Consider:
The following are only ideas and are not meant to be buy or sell recommendations. All trades require due diligence on the trader's part.
For Traders:
Play the WASDE Strength: The WASDE's lower stocks and export bump make old-crop May futures look solid between $4.60 and $4.85. Buy if prices dip to $4.60, aiming for $4.75–$4.85, but use stop-loss orders in case tariffs shake things up.
Keep an Eye on Funds: Check upcoming COT reports for funds adding longs, which could increase prices. If they start dumping positions, consider shorting to $4.50, using options to keep risk low.
Watch Planting Progress: Follow Crop Progress reports for signs of delays or drought. If planting stalls or the weather worsens, go long July futures. Buy if prices dip to $4.60, aiming for $4.75–$4.85. Disregard if planting picks up without issues.
Stay Nimble on Trade News: Use the tariff pause to build longs, but be ready to exit if policy shifts—Track Brazil's crop reports from CONAB for signs of trouble that could lift prices.
For Hedgers:
Lock in Old-Crop Sales: Producers should sell old-crop corn above $4.60 with futures or call options to take advantage of WASDE strength while guarding against tariff risks. Don't overcommit if prices rally further.
Secure New-Crop Needs: End-users should grab new-crop contracts if planting lags, as tighter supplies could push the basis higher. Forward contracts can help lock in supply and sourcing from multiple regions and hedge against trade disruptions.
Plan for Weather Risks: Producers need crop insurance and might want to use options for new-crop corn to cover price spikes from bad weather. Check NOAA forecasts and Crop Progress reports to time your moves.
Diversify Markets: Producers should look at local buyers to reduce export risks if tariffs hit. End-users should line up contracts from different origins to keep supplies steady if global stocks get tighter.
Assets to Participate in the Corn Market
Traders can use the standard-size futures contract (ZC) or the mini-size (XN), and on February 24, 2025, the new micro-contract (MZC). Equity traders can trade the exchange-traded fund (ETF) named CORN.
In Closing…
The corn market in April 2025 is full of moving pieces—tighter supplies from the WASDE, cautious fund positions, early planting challenges, and trade policy risks. The steps above allow traders to participate in price moves and hedgers to plan to manage risks and secure supplies. Staying on top of reports and being ready to adjust will be the key to coming out ahead through the planting season.
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