The four viruses that pose the biggest threat of a new pandemic in the UK
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) released a 'priority pathogen list' including deadly organisms such as monkeypox, ebola and norovirus.
Scientists analysed the potential of the organisms to cause an epidemic (a regional outbreak) or a pandemic (a global outbreak).
The idea of the new tool is to encourage scientific research and speed up vaccine development, with climate change creating new disease risks, alongside resistance to antibiotics.
The UKHSA hopes to see scientific strides made on pathogen families including the coronavirus family, the norovirus family and the family of viruses which includes avian flu, alongside a virus family which includes Nipah virus.
'We live at the time of increasing challenges and increasing risks from infectious diseases," Dr Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer for UKHSA, said. "But at the same time we have got, thanks to scientific advancement, better tools than we've ever had to protect health against these threats.
'Having said that there are areas where we still need more or better diagnostics, vaccines and medicines and therapeutics, and this tool has been designed to help inform the work of government research funders, but also our partners in industry and academia who are critical to the development of these tools that we so desperately need.'The 'Coronaviridae' family, which includes the virus that sparked the COVID-19 pandemic, still holds 'high' pandemic potential, researchers warn.
The report warns of the risk of animal-to-human transmission, with a particular focus on the Middle East.
'Of the highest priority pathogens identified by the UKHSA, no one could argue with the inclusion of coronaviruses," Prof Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, and Director of the Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa, University of Edinburgh, said. 'A key recommendation of the UK COVID Inquiry's Interim Report for Module 1 (Preparedness) was that prior to 2020 the UK was overly focussed on the risk of an influenza pandemic. When COVID arrived, it took too long to adjust our response to a different threat, which was part of the reason we ended up in lockdown.
'Since the pandemic, there have been many initiatives to better understand the diversity of pandemic threats that the UK and the world may face in the coming years. The UKHSA's pathogen prioritization exercise is a welcome contribution to this global effort.'
The flu family (or 'Orthomyxoviridae') includes influenza viruses, as well as viruses that primarily infect birds, pigs and cattle.
The flu family is described as high risk for both pandemics and epidemics.
The report warns that the risk from the viruses is likely to increase due to climate change, and that Asia poses a particular risk in geographical spread.
Prof Emma Thomson, Director of the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, said: "From a scientific perspective, the list is particularly helpful in identifying gaps in our current understanding of high-risk pathogen families and the areas where new research and countermeasure development are most urgently needed.
"Many of the listed families—such as orthomixidae — are already recognised as significant threats, but the tool also highlights less well-characterised families where pandemic or epidemic potential remains underexplored."
The Paramyxoviridae family of viruses includes diseases such as measles as well as Nipah virus.
The UKHSA warns that the risk of such viruses is likely to grow in our warning climate, highlighting Asia as a particular risk.
Nipah virus was highlighted among these viruses: the virus spreads among bats, and kills up to 75% of infected humans.
While there is an effective virus against measles, immunisation rates need to be at 95% for it to work, which has seen outbreaks in areas in the U.S. high in anti-vaccine sentiment.
The risks of such viruses are increasing as humans live in proximity to animals.
The Picornaviridae includes virsues including the rhinovirus which is the main cause of the common cold, and enterovirus which causes polio, as well as the virus behind hepatitis A.
The UKHSA report highlights that such viruses can spread through food and water as well as through breath.
Picornaviridae are spread worldwide.
Of particular concern is that there are few vaccines or therapeutic treatments for the viruses, with just one candidate vaccine in trial at present.
The new UKHSA tool will be updated annually, but government scientists warn it represents a 'snapshot in time' and must be used alongside other information sources.
But other experts have warned that focusing on 'known' threats may pose its own problems.
Prof Jose Vazquez-Boland, Chair of Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh described prioritising well-known diseases as a "double-edged sword".
Other experts suggested that there needs to be more focus on emerging threats - including 'Disease X', a new virus that may emerge from wildlife.
Prof Emma Thomson, Director of the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, said: 'It is essential that this list remains dynamic and responsive to emerging threats. History has shown that pandemic risks can arise from unexpected sources. For example, coronaviruses and retroviruses were not widely regarded as major threats before SARS-CoV-1 and HIV-1 emerged, respectively.
"The concept of Disease X also remains critical in this context. There are an estimated 320,000 undiscovered viruses in wildlife that could have spillover potential. Enhanced technologies for virus discovery and characterisation—such as unbiased metagenomic sequencing and improved surveillance—will be essential to ensure that novel pathogens are rapidly identified and assessed for pandemic potential."
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