
How Trump broke the politics of Medicaid
Republicans used to cheer the possibility of Medicaid cuts. Now, as the GOP advances President Donald Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' that would reduce Medicaid spending, they're rebranding it as making the program stronger.
The shift reflects the striking new politics of Medicaid — and how dramatically the GOP's coalition has changed under Trump. Now Democrats are hoping Medicaid could be the issue that exposes the cracks in the Trump coalition.
They have seized on a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate that the bill would cause 7.8 million people to lose access to the low-income health insurance program. At stake is whether Democrats can start to win back working-class voters who have shifted toward the GOP over the past decade.
Medicaid provides health insurance for nearly 80 million people but was long the electoral forgotten sibling of Social Security and Medicare. It's clear in the ads: TV ads for House and Senate races last election cycle were 26 times as likely to mention Medicare, the health care program for seniors, as Medicaid, according to a POLITICO analysis of transcripts from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. But that's already changing.
'I saw elections 16 years ago where people ran on cutting Medicaid, and there were folks who were on Medicaid who were in the crowd cheering them on,' said Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028. 'That's not the case of where we are today.'
The Medicaid provisions in the GOP's budget bill have prompted new debate even among Republicans. To Beshear and others, that provides an opening. Democrats, he said, should stand in front of hospitals and 'talk about how important Medicaid is,' he said, while emphasizing 'the impact on specific communities.'
Congressional Democrats have seized on the issue, with moderates and progressives alike speaking in defense of the program. The party's House campaign arm is prioritizing Medicaid in swing-district messaging. And TV ads mentioning Medicaid have already run in more Republican-held districts this year than they did all of last cycle.
Republicans are cautious, with an ideologically diverse group of senators wary of cuts and poised to exert significant influence over the bill. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who warned that cutting the program would be 'both morally wrong and politically suicidal,' said last week that Trump had promised him no cuts to benefits.
GOP lawmakers have largely rallied around Trump's bill by arguing the House legislation protects Medicaid by only removing people who do not deserve it in the first place. That careful messaging is a stark difference from a decade ago, when congressional Republicans explicitly prioritized cutting Medicaid and governors blocked its expansion.
One reason for the turnaround: A series of red states expanded Medicaid by ballot initiative between 2017 and 2020 — largely with backing of Democratic-aligned groups — and GOP voters defied their state and local political leaders in large numbers to support the program. Nationwide, enrollment for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program rose from just shy of 70 million in 2014 to nearly 79 million at the end of 2024.
And at the same time more people were entering the program, including Republican voters in red states, an electoral realignment was shifting working-class voters toward Trump.
'Medicaid has a broader and broader appeal the more people that are on it, and the more people who know someone who's on it. That's incredibly powerful politically,' said Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, which backed state Medicaid referendums.
The makeup of Medicaid users was changing — and so were its politics.
For a long time, the program has been relatively absent from federal races. Even in the 2018 midterms, when defending the Affordable Care Act was central to Democrats' midterm messaging, only 30 TV ads across all congressional elections mentioned Medicaid, while nearly 500 mentioned Medicare, POLITICO's analysis found.
But Medicaid expansion was a major issue in many gubernatorial and state legislative races in the 2010s. The success of ballot measures proved the program had a strong constituency, even in red states.
And Trump's popularity with working-class voters also reshaped the GOP's coalition. Compared to Republican candidates before him, Trump's 2024 gains were strongest in counties with high Medicaid enrollment, a POLITICO analysis found. In the 2024 election, 49 percent of Medicaid recipients voted for Trump compared to 47 percent for Kamala Harris, according to Morning Consult polling.
That means cuts to Medicaid or reductions in eligibility could now pose a political risk for Republicans. People who could lose benefits would not just be Democratic voters in blue states, but Republicans in red states and swing districts who supported Trump last year.
Drew Kent, a GOP strategist whose firm recently polled Pennsylvania's voters, found a slight majority, including 30 percent of Republicans, disapproved of work requirements for Medicaid.
'These results are definitely a bit surprising to me,' Kent said. 'It clearly shows the challenges and importance, particularly in a political swing state like Pennsylvania, of getting the policy, messaging, and communications right on an issue of this magnitude.'
Republicans are aware of the potential political liability: The GOP's argument about the bill, which could still face changes in the Senate, is that the changes to the program do not amount to cuts for voters.
'The President wants to preserve and protect Medicaid for the Americans who this program was intended for,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing last month. 'We want to see able-bodied Americans at least working 20 hours per week, whether that's part-time or full-time, whether that's even looking for work or volunteering for 20 hours a week, if they are receiving Medicaid.'
A memo from the National Republican Campaign Committee last month advised the party to go on offense, saying the bill protects Medicaid by 'removing illegal immigrants and eliminating fraud.' Among its provisions, the bill would penalize states such as California that use state dollars to extend Medicaid benefits to undocumented immigrants. According to CBO estimates, of the nearly 11 million people who would lose Medicaid or other health insurance due to the bill, about 1.4 million are immigrants.
GOP strategist Josh Novotney argued that approach is in line with what Trump's working-class base wants.
'Most blue-collar Trump supporters I have met or spoken with in large groups do not want their hard-earned taxes going to other people, whether that is student debt forgiveness or Medicaid abuse,' he said. 'That is not at odds with his supporters.'
A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Friday found a plurality of Republicans, 42 percent, believed the Trump administration's policies would strengthen Medicaid, with only 22 percent believing the program would be weakened. But Republican Medicaid enrollees were more split, with 35 believing Trump would strengthen the program and 34 percent saying he would weaken it.
That is where Democrats see an opening. A nonprofit affiliated with Democrats' House campaign arm is already targeting swing-district Republicans with digital ads accusing members of cutting Medicaid to pay for tax breaks for the rich. And a flurry of other liberal groups have purchased TV or digital ads and planned billboards and other activist campaigns.
'To the extent that this is becoming a bigger political issue, it's simply because their efforts to destroy Medicaid are fundamentally more dangerous and more real than ever before,' said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), whose PAC is helping fund a group that opposes Medicaid cuts.
As the bill currently stands, the Medicaid work requirements would not go into effect until the end of 2026. That means Democrats largely won't be able to point during their midterm campaigns to people who have already lost access to Medicaid.
Instead, they may rely on voter trust on an issue that has historically worked for them. While polls have found voters consistently prefer the GOP more on issues such as the economy and immigration — which helped propel Trump's win last year — health care has remained a rare bright spot for Democrats.
'If there is a debate or chaos or uncertainty about Medicaid cuts, then I think Democrats stand to benefit from that because of the brand advantage on health care,' said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. 'One of the few places where we have maintained an edge.'
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
13 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump Unironically Attends 'Les Misérables' As Protests Spread
As protests against his immigration policies balloon nationwide, President Donald Trump is seeing one of his favorite musicals on Wednesday night: 'Les Misérables,' the story of an anti-government uprising, abusive police and harsh imprisonment. Trump is going to opening night of the famous musical's one-month run at Washington, D.C.'s John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, whose entire board of trustees he replaced in February and had them name him chairman. 'We've seen it many times,' Trump said upon arriving at the Kennedy Center with first lady Melania Trump. 'Love it. One of my favorites.' When a reporter asked him which side of the musical's conflict he most identified with, Trump laughed and refused to answer. 'That's tough. You better answer that one, honey,' he said, gesturing to the first lady. 'I don't know.' When another reporter asked how he felt about reports that some of the 'Les Misérables' cast would be boycotting the night of his performance, Trump said he 'couldn't care less.' 'All I do is run the country well,' he retorted. Trump received a mixture of cheers and boos when he took his seat at the theater. His attendance comes after he deployed National Guard troops to face largely peaceful protesters in Los Angeles and announced he was sending in Marines, despite pushback from local leadership. 'Les Misérables,' the musical based on the 1862 novel of the same name, tells the story of French peasant Jean Valjean after he emerges from a 19-year prison sentence for stealing a loaf of bread for his niece. Much of the musical centers around student demonstrations against the French monarchy. One of the musical's most recognizable songs ― 'Do You Hear The People Sing?' ― has a long history as an anthem at pro-democracy demonstrations. It's also an apparent favorite of Trump's, as he played the song right before walking onstage to announce his third presidential run in 2022. Several drag performers also attended the show Wednesday night to protest Trump, who announced in February there would be 'NO MORE DRAG SHOWS, OR OTHER ANTI-AMERICAN PROPAGANDA' at the Kennedy Center going forward. They received applause as they walked in to the theater, social media videos show. Vagenesis, whose government name is Anderson Wells, was one of the planned attendees. 'Theater is supposed to be a place of community, a place of storytelling, a place of celebration, joy, catharsis and it should be open and available to all,' Vagenesis told NPR on Wednesday. Trump's former Vice President Mike Pence similarly caused a stir when he went to see 'Hamilton' shortly after winning the 2016 election. He was loudly booed when he arrived at the Manhattan theater. When Pence was trying to exit the theater after the final curtain call, actor Brandon Dixon, who was playing the part of Aaron Burr, asked him to stay and delivered a message to him. 'We, sir, we are the diverse America, who are alarmed and anxious that your new administration will not protect us, our planet, our children, our parents or defend us and uphold our inalienable rights,' Dixon said. 'We truly hope that this show has inspired you to uphold our American values and to work on behalf of all of us,' he continued. Pam Bondi Warns Of More Arrests In California Amid Protests Against Immigration Raids Karoline Leavitt Snaps At Reporter For 'Stupid Question' About Peaceful Protests There's Growing Anger Over Flags Flown At LA Protests. Here's What Everyone Is Getting Wrong.
Yahoo
13 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Family of former Fort Novosel namesake believes new order is a slap in the face: ‘I am just appalled'
Ft. Novosel, Ala. (WDHN) — President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that his administration would work to change the names of seven Army bases, including Fort Novosel, that previously bore the names of Confederate Army officers. K. Denise Rucker Krepp, a cousin of Confederate Colonel Edmund Rucker, for whom Fort Novosel was previously named, believes the order from President Trump to restore the names of army bases is a step backward, despite the base being named in honor of a different Rucker. 'Rucker is not that important. My family committed treason,' Krepp said. 'We should not be looking to the past. Why are you doing this, and as a Rucker, I am just appalled.' Trump says he will reverse Fort Novosel name change After almost two years, with the base renamed to Fort Novosel, President Trump called for all Army bases that had their names changed in 2023 under the previous administration to revert to their original names. 'We won a lot of battles out of those forts, it's no time to change,' President Donald Trump said. 'It was a gut punch, it hurts, and it was quite sad. My family committed treason, lost a war, and an American base in the United States should have never been named in honor of one of my family members,' Krepp said. The base was renamed in honor of Chief Warrant Officer 4 Michael Novosel Sr., a local Army aviator who served in three wars and saved 29 soldiers during a medevac mission. It will now be in honor of a Missouri native, Captain Edward Rucker, a distinguished service cross recipient pilot for extraordinary heroism in World War 1. Fort Novosel to be reverted to Fort Rucker with new namesake. Who is it? 'It's being named for him because of his last name, not about what he did — Novosel was a hero, and that's who it should be named after,' Krepp said. 'Heartbreaking to see the disrespect to Vietnam veterans. Novosel was a Vietnam veteran, and when you take his name off it's disrespectful to his family and everybody who fought,' She added. Krepp encourages people to do research on Novosel, and she says, despite the name change, she will still refer to it as Fort Novosel. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
13 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Poll: Majority of Democrats give thumbs-down to their leaders in Congress
Most Democrats disapprove of how their party's lawmakers in Congress are handling their jobs, according to a new national poll. Fifty-three percent of Democrats questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday gave their party's congressional members a thumbs-down, while 41% approved of their performance. According to the poll, conducted June 5-8, just 21% of all voters approved of the way Democrats in Congress were handing their jobs, with seven in ten disapproving. Head Here For The Latest Fox News Polling The 21% approval is the same as in Quinnipiac's February national poll, matching "an all-time low since Quinnipiac University first asked this question of registered voters in March 2009." The survey indicates 79% of GOP voters approve of the way congressional Republicans are handling their job, with 13% disapproving. Read On The Fox News App Where Trump Stands In Fox News Polling 100 Days Into His Second Term Among all voters, 32% approved of how GOP congressional members were performing their duties, while just over six in ten disapproved. Overall approval for Republicans in Congress has dropped eight points since Quinnipiac's February poll, with disapproval jumping nine points. The Democratic Party has been in the political wilderness since November's elections, when Republicans won back control of the White House and the Senate and defended their fragile House majority. And Republicans made gains among Black, Hispanic and younger voters, all traditional members of the Democratic Party's base. Since President Donald Trump's return to power earlier this year, an increasingly energized base of Democrats is urging party leaders to take a stronger stand in pushing back against the president's sweeping and controversial agenda during the opening months of his second administration. And their anger is directed not only at Republicans, but at Democrats they feel aren't vocal enough in their opposition to Trump. And that's fueled a plunge in the Democratic Party's favorable ratings, which have hit historic lows in several surveys the past couple of months. The new poll from Quinnipiac also indicates a decline in Trump's approval ratings among voters nationwide. Thirty-eight percent of those questioned in the survey said they approve of the way the president is handling his duties, down three points from Quinnipiac's early April poll. Fifty-four percent in the new poll gave Trump a thumbs-down for his handling of his job as president, down one point from the April survey. Trump's approval ratings were mostly above water as he returned to the White House in late January, but his numbers soon slid underwater in many national surveys and remain in negative territory nearly five months into his second article source: Poll: Majority of Democrats give thumbs-down to their leaders in Congress