Latest news with #CongressionalBudgetOffice
Bloomberg
4 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
One Way to Ease the US Debt Crisis? Productivity
In a May report on alternative scenarios for the long-term US budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the impact of productivity growth that was faster or slower than the 1% annual average in its baseline forecast. It made a big difference. These forecasts were completed before the passage of the Republican-backed budget bill, which by the CBO's reckoning markedly worsened the debt outlook. But the basic point still holds — higher-than-expected productivity growth could turn what is starting to look like an out-of-control debt problem into a much more manageable one, with the debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio flattening rather than continuing to rise.
BBC News
12 hours ago
- Business
- BBC News
How Trump's tariffs are already impacting Americans
Donald Trump has delivered a profound shock to the global trading system since returning to the White US president announced on 2 April, so-called Liberation Day, a slew of swingeing so-called "reciprocal" tariffs, or import taxes, hitting dozens of countries around the of these have been paused. And since then, Trump has also announced agreements with several partners - including the UK, Vietnam, Japan, and the European Union - which reduce some tariff particular commodities and goods such as automobiles and steel have also been targeted with significant industry-specific tariffs by Washington - and the overall average US tariff rate is at its highest in almost a tariffs themselves are ultimately paid by the US companies that bring goods into the country from impact of all this is being felt in the US and global economy in different ways. More tariff revenue for the US government The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that, as of 28 July 2025, the average effective tariff rate imposed by the US on goods imports stood at 18.2%, the highest since was up from 2.4% in 2024, before Donald Trump returned to significant increase means the US government's tariff revenues have shot up. Official US data shows that in June 2025 tariff revenues were $28bn, triple the monthly revenues seen in 2024. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the independent US fiscal watchdog, estimated in June that the increase in tariff revenue, based on the new US tariffs imposed between 6 January and 13 May 2025, would reduce cumulative US government borrowing in the 10 years to 2035 by $2.5 the CBO also judged that the tariffs would shrink the size of the US economy relative to how it would perform without also project that the additional revenues generated from the tariffs will be more than offset by the revenue lost due to the Trump administration's tax cuts over the next decade. A widening of the US trade deficit Donald Trump regards bilateral trade deficits as evidence that other countries are taking advantage of the US by selling more goods to America than they buy from of the justifications for his tariffs is to address that imbalance by curbing imports and forcing other countries to lower their own barriers to US one of the standout impacts of Donald Trump's trade war, so far, has been to increase US goods is because US firms stockpiled supplies in advance of tariffs being implemented to avoid being forced to pay the additional US exports have seen only a modest net result is that the US goods trade deficit has widened, not reached a record $162bn in March 2025, before falling back to $86bn in June. The distortion caused by stockpiling will fade, but over the longer term many economists expect the Trump administration will still struggle to bring down the overall US trade because they argue that the deficit is primarily driven by structural imbalances within the US economy - persistent national spending in excess of national production - rather than unfair trade practices directed at America by other nations. China is exporting less to America Trump imposed punitive tariffs on China, with levies at one stage hitting 145%.They have come down to 30% but the impact of those trade hostilities on Chinese trade with America has nevertheless been value of Chinese exports to the US in the first six months of 2025 were down 11% on the same period in Chinese exports to some of its other trading partners have grown, suggesting Chinese firms have been able to find customers in other exports to India this year are up 14% on the same period last year and with the EU and the UK they are up 7% and 8% respectively. Also notable is a 13% increase in the value of Chinese exports to the ASEAN nations, which include Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, over that Trump administration has been concerned about the possibility of Chinese firms attempting to bypass US tariffs on China by setting up operations in neighbouring South East Asian countries - to which they export semi-finished goods - and exporting finished goods to the US from "tariff jumping" occurred when Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels in his first term and some economists argue the increase in Chinese exports to ASEAN nations could be related to the same phenomenon. More trade deals Some countries have responded to Trump's trade war by seeking to deepen trade ties with other countries, rather than by putting up their own UK and India have signed a trade deal that they were negotiating for three Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein - who are in a grouping called the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) - have concluded a new trade deal with a number of Latin American countries in a grouping known as EU is pushing ahead with a new trade deal with is exploring a free trade agreement with countries have also taken advantage of the fracturing of trade between the US and has traditionally been a significant global importer of soybeans from the US, which it uses as fodder for its 440 million in recent years Beijing has been increasingly shifting towards buying its soybeans from Brazil, rather than America, a trend analysts argue has accelerated as a result of Donald Trump's latest trade war and Beijing's new retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural imports. In June 2025 China imported 10.6 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, but only 1.6 million tons from the China put retaliatory tariffs on US soybean imports in Donald Trump's first term his administration felt the need to directly compensate US farmers with new subsidies. US consumer prices are starting to rise Economists warn that Trump's tariffs will ultimately push up US prices by making imports more official US inflation rate for June was 2.7%. That was up slightly from the 2.4% inflation figure for May, but still below the 3% rate in in the earlier part of the year has helped retailers absorb the impact of the tariffs without needing to raise retail economists saw in the latest official data some signs that Trump's tariffs are now starting to feed through to US consumer imported goods such as major appliances, computers, sports equipment, books and toys showed a marked pick up in prices in June. Researchers at Harvard University's Pricing Lab, who are examining the effects of the 2025 tariff measures in real time using online data from four major US retailers, have found that the price of imported goods into the US and domestic products affected by tariffs have been rising more rapidly in 2025 than domestic goods that are not affected by reporting by Alison Benjamin, Yi Ma, Anthony Myers. What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
CNN
a day ago
- Health
- CNN
Food assistance benefits are tied to slower cognitive decline in older adults, new study suggests
For older adults who may otherwise be food-insecure, participating in food assistance benefits may be associated with a slower cognitive decline as they age, according to new research. Compared with eligible people who were not participating in the US Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, SNAP participants showed a slower decline in cognitive function during a 10-year period, essentially maintaining up to three additional years of cognitive health, according to the study presented Wednesday at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Toronto. 'We expected that SNAP might be protective for cognitive health based on prior research linking food insecurity to faster cognitive decline. But what did surprise us was the persistence of the effect over a decade — and the fact that the benefit was equivalent to preserving two to three extra years of cognitive health,' Linlin Da, lead author of the study and a Ph.D. candidate in health services research at the University of Georgia, said in an email. 'This study is important because it shows that supporting basic needs like food access can have long-term benefits for brain health, something not widely recognized,' Da said. 'In a time when we're seeking ways to delay or prevent Alzheimer's disease and related dementia, this suggests that public health and social policy can play a role alongside medical approaches.' It's estimated that nearly 37% of SNAP participants are in households with older adults or people with disabilities, and on average, SNAP participants may receive an estimated $6.16 per day per person in benefits. SNAP, known previously as the Food Stamp Program, helped an average of more than 41 million low-income people in the United States in a typical month last year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Now, President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes the largest cuts to food stamps in the program's 86-year history, jeopardizing assistance for millions of people. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the law will reduce federal spending on SNAP by almost $187 billion over the next decade. Some public health experts worry that while cuts to SNAP would lead to budgetary savings, it also could produce higher rates of food insecurity and poorer health outcomes in the long run, according to the nonprofit KFF, formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation. And some Democratic state leaders are warning about potential consequences. 'During a time when many American families are already struggling, food assistance programs such as SNAP are more essential than ever,' Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a news release Tuesday. 'Under the veneer of 'cost savings,' the Trump Administration is slashing benefits and threatening the well-being of hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans, putting their health and welfare at risk. Our state deserves better.' The researchers on the new study, from the University of Georgia, analyzed data on more than 2,000 adults 50 and older across the United States. About half of them were enrolled in SNAP in 2010, and the other half were eligible for SNAP but did not participate in the program. Every two years between 2010 and 2020, the researchers interviewed the study participants to assess their cognition, memory and executive function, including their ability to carry out tasks or to plan. Each person was given a cognitive score based on the assessments. The assessments, which have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, showed that those enrolled in SNAP had a slower rate of cognitive decline in cognition, memory and executive function during the 10-year period. 'The decline in global cognitive function was 0.10 points slower per year for SNAP participants compared to nonparticipants,' Da said. 'While that may sound small, over a 10-year period, this adds up to about one full point of preserved cognition. To put it in clinical terms, this slower decline could delay the onset of mild cognitive impairment by nearly a decade for someone starting at a healthy cognitive baseline.' When the researchers analyzed their data by race and ethnicity, they found that there was a slightly faster decline in cognition and memory among Black and Hispanic adults compared with White adults, but no significant racial differences were observed for executive function. However, SNAP participation was linked with much stronger cognitive benefits and slower decline among the White adults. As a 10-year study, the new research covers 'a good length of time' to determine the benefits of diet and SNAP as associated with cognitive health, Dr. Shae Datta, a neurologist at NYU Langone Health and brand partner for the supplement company Qunol, said in an email. 'Having the means to buy nutritious food is important for preventing cognitive decline,' said Datta, who was not involved in the new study. 'This study suggested that SNAP participation, or any nutritional support program can delay the onset of cognitive impairment or dementia. Translating in a greater ability to manage their activities of daily living and remain independent longer.' While the new study suggests only an association between SNAP participation and cognitive decline, rather than a causal relationship, the researchers emphasized that not having adequate access to food can negatively affect cognitive function. SNAP participation may help improve someone's nutritional intake, thus potentially slowing cognitive decline. 'When people don't have access to healthy nutrition programs, they may have inadequate intake of, for example, brain healthy fats, omega-3 fatty acids, which are found in fish, fish like lake trout, mackerel, herring, albacore tuna, sardines and wild salmon,' said preventive neurologist Dr. Richard Isaacson, director of research at the Institute for Neurodegenerative Diseases in Florida, who was not involved in the new study. 'Having a balanced diet can neutralize a lot of the risk elements related to developing cognitive decline. The way that I would think about this is, the Mediterranean-style diet is by far the most evidence-based when it comes to reducing the risk of cognitive decline,' Isaacson said. 'But a Mediterranean-style diet is rich in green, leafy vegetables. Vegetables are expensive. Fatty fish are expensive. So nutrition assistance programs can really fill the gap.' A Mediterranean-style diet includes mostly vegetables, fruits, beans, nuts, lentils, whole grains and healthy fats, such as extra virgin olive oil and avocados. The diet may include a moderate amount of natural cheese and yogurt, but it is low in red meat and sugar. Overall, the potential health benefits of participating in a food assistance program for an older adult who otherwise would be food-insecure are based on whether that adult uses the program to access brain healthy foods while taking other steps to maintain cognitive health, said Isaacson, who established one of the first Alzheimer's prevention clinics in the United States. 'You can't eat a magic blueberry and think you're going to prevent Alzheimer's disease,' he said. 'Healthy nutrition, exercising on a regular basis, seeing a doctor regularly to control blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, vascular risk factors – you need to do all of these different things to have the most benefit.' CNN's Nathaniel Meyersohn contributed to this report.
New York Post
a day ago
- Entertainment
- New York Post
Best of the Babylon Bee: Trump to balance budget by starting swear jar for Dems
Every week, The Post will bring you our picks of the best one-liners and stories from satirical site the Babylon Bee to take the edge off Hump Day. Want more of a chuckle? Be sure to click the links. 4 mfalzone Advertisement The Congressional Budget Office estimated that at ten bucks per cuss, the swear jar will easily wipe out this year's projected $1.9 trillion deficit. READ MORE 4 mfalzone Advertisement In London, bats reportedly crept in unnoticed through the tube system before exploding onto the surface at dusk where they proceeded to take over parliament and all major bridges. READ MORE 4 mfalzone According to sources, the U.S. will now collect a fee every time someone uses a word with an unnecessary 'U' in it. READ MORE Advertisement 4 mfalzone Experts believe that even though you were anticipating a Monday free from the work week, AI hasn't gotten around to replacing you yet, so you have to log in and get cracking. READ MORE
NBC News
a day ago
- Health
- NBC News
Federal food assistance program may slow cognitive decline, study suggests
Older adults who participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, had a slower rate of cognitive decline than people who were eligible for the anti-hunger program but didn't receive benefits, according to a study presented Wednesday. Although many adults begin to mentally slow down in midlife, researchers found that people over 50 who participated in SNAP, which helps people with low incomes afford groceries, had a 10% slower rate of decline in their memory and thinking skills compared with their peers. That's equal to gaining two to three additional years of cognitive health over 10 years, said Linlin Da, lead author of the study, who presented her findings Wednesday at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Toronto. By providing a secure source of food, SNAP 'may have some underappreciated benefits for brain health,' said Da, who led the study while she was a doctoral student at the University of Georgia College of Public Health. The National Institutes of Health-funded study comes just weeks after President Donald Trump signed legislation that the Congressional Budget Office estimates will cut funding for SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, by $186 billion through 2034. Food banks across the United States are already struggling to meet growing demand amid funding cuts from the Agriculture Department. Food insecurity 'can lead to poor nutrition and chronic disease, and all of that can negatively impact the brain,' Da said. 'So by improving access to nutrient-rich foods, SNAP may support brain health, reduce the stress and promote better health overall.' The new study, which hasn't yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, leaves many questions unanswered. Researchers didn't measure which foods study participants consumed, so they don't know if people receiving SNAP benefits had healthier diets. But doctors know that high-sodium diets can raise blood pressure, one of the most important risk factors for dementia, said Dr. Mitchell Elkind, chief science officer for brain health and stroke at the American Heart Association. The study also doesn't explain how food security might benefit the brain, said Elkind, who wasn't involved with the research. It's possible that programs such as SNAP relieve the anxiety that people feel when they can't afford their groceries or when they have to choose between paying for food or medication, giving them more mental bandwidth to focus on other issues. Chronic stress has been linked to a higher risk for dementia. The design of the new study, which followed more than 2,300 older people for 10 years, can't definitively prove that participating in SNAP protects brain health. It's possible that people who participated in SNAP were cognitively healthier before the study began, Da said. Enrolling in SNAP can be time-consuming and complicated, making it more difficult for people with cognitive problems to complete their applications. Yet a growing field of research links nutrition, food security and dementia risk. 'Observational studies from around the world have shown us that food insecurity and poor cognitive health go together,' said Kriti Jain, a health administrator at the National Institute on Aging, part of the NIH, who wasn't involved in the study. 'More recent studies have shown us that food insecurity comes before cognitive health gets worse.' Brain health is shaped by far more than genetics, Da said. Cognitive aging 'can also be shaped by policies, by the environment and by access to different resources,' she said. 'That means we can do something to change it and improve it.' Anti-hunger groups contend that cutting SNAP benefits will leave people hungry and less healthy. Research shows that poverty and food insecurity — a condition in which people lack a consistent source of nutritious food — are common risk factors for malnutrition among older adults. 'SNAP is both a lifeline for older adults and a critical public health tool,' said Crystal FitzSimons, president of the Food Research & Action Center, an advocacy group. 'Participating in SNAP can mean extra years of cognitive health, helping older adults remain independent,' instead of moving into nursing homes. The Republican-led House Agriculture Committee has said the funding reduction ' restores SNAP to its original intent —promoting work, not welfare—while saving taxpayer dollars and investing in American agriculture.' Food as medicine Karen Forbes, 61, first participated in SNAP decades ago when she was a single mother of a young child. She reapplied for the program during the pandemic when her pet sitting customers stopped needing her. Forbes, who lives outside Portland, Oregon, said SNAP has been especially important since she developed long Covid in 2022, which has left her with heavy fatigue, prevents her from working and has caused 'brain fog' that resembles age-related cognitive decline. Forbes said she and her father, who is 82, 'are going through a sort of Alzheimer's thing together.' Although Forbes said she used to talk 'a million miles a minute,' she now often struggles to find the right word. If she tries to speak too quickly, 'everything comes out jumbled and stupid.' After an 18-month wait, Forbes said she recently began receiving disability benefits from Social Security. Because of SNAP, Forbes said, she doesn't have to choose between buying groceries and paying her rent or electric bills. Her favorite part of SNAP is being able to afford fresh fruits and vegetables, she said. Oregon's SNAP program provides 'double benefits' for shopping at farmers markets, so people can buy twice as much fresh produce for the same amount of money. Forbes said she tries to follow a healthy diet in the hope of overcoming her illness. 'When you're chronically ill, every little tiny thing you can do to improve your health makes all the difference in the world,' she said. Food insecurity linked to dementia Jain described food insecurity as 'a severe and growing public health issue in America.' In families with member over age 60, the prevalence of food insecurity has almost doubled in the past two decades. Twenty-three percent of such families faced chronic or recurring food insecurity from 2015 to 2019, according to a survey from the NIH published last year in JAMA Health Forum. Another study published last year found that food insecurity doubled the risk of probable cognitive decline. And a paper published in 2024 in the Journal of Nutrition found that adults with food insecurity and lower-quality diets had significantly steeper declines in cognitive scores during the study, conducted from 2012 to 2020. In that study, however, participating in SNAP wasn't related to the rate of mental decline, suggesting that SNAP alone 'may be insufficient to prevent negative cognitive effects of poor diet and limited access to nutritious foods.' Unprecedented cutbacks The Urban Institute, a nonprofit research organization that focuses on social and economic policy, estimates that funding cuts could lead 22.3 million families to lose some or all of their food benefits. The 20% decrease in funding is 'the largest cut to SNAP in history,' according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan think tank. The measure will also shift much of the program's cost from the federal government to the states beginning in 2028, as well as expand work requirements for participants. The new study suggests 'we need more research on the role of healthy diet and nutrition in brain health,' Elkind said. 'In particular, it suggests that there should be more research in the area of food as medicine, meaning the provision of healthy food to people to see what the impact is on cognition, dementia risks and brain health.'
