Mexico's Upcoming Election May Redefine Power

Newsweek

6 days ago

This Sunday's election is not just about judges—it's a controversial moment in Mexico's democracy. For some, it marks the end of the rule of law as we know it. For others—and according to the data, the majority—it's the beginning of a long-overdue democratization of the judiciary. Everything depends on your point of view. If you've always had access to the justice system, the election looks like a threat. If you never have, this feels like the first real opportunity for justice.
That divide runs deep: polls show Mexico's population is split roughly 60–40 in favor of reform. It's a clash between those who want to preserve the status quo and those who've never benefited from it.
A voting station inside a Mexico City high school is pictured.
A voting station inside a Mexico City high school is pictured.
Getty Images
But beyond the controversy, this election gives us a unique window into three key dynamics that will define the rest of this decade: the strength of President Claudia Sheinbaum's leadership within her movement, the rise of a new Indigenous political force, and the capacity of Mexico's most trusted institution—the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE)—to protect democracy under pressure.
First, this election is a test of the president's control. Sheinbaum has a project for the judiciary and made it known—distributing acordeones (candidate cheat sheets) to allies and mobilizers. This isn't a campaign of TV ads and media tours. It's grassroots. It's local operators, governors, unions, NGOs, and party bosses moving votes in coordinated blocs. According to our latest survey, 77 percent of the votes will be mobilized, not spontaneous. This is not about convincing—it's about delivering.
Participation will offer the first signal—20 percent would be a political win. Anything lower will almost certainly be read by the president's adversaries as a defeat, or at least a sign of limited control. But turnout alone won't tell the full story. This moment offers a first glimpse not just of loyalty, but of the real mobilization strength of each political bloc—Morena and its allies, the opposition, and the Indigenous movement alike.
In about a month, once results are final, we shouldn't be surprised to see that several states controlled by Morena adversaries vote against the president's line—nor should it be shocking if opposition territories quietly back her lists. The political map won't split neatly by party. Instead, it may reveal a deeper realignment—one that cuts across traditional affiliations. And before her first year in office ends, President Sheinbaum will know exactly who's with her—and who isn't.
Second, this election marks the most organized Indigenous political effort in decades. With over 23 million Indigenous people in Mexico, their historical relationship with electoral politics has been complex. They've supported causes from the outside—1994's Zapatista uprising, Marichuy's 2017 candidacy—but rarely entered electoral institutions directly. That's changed.
Led by Hugo Aguilar Ortiz, Indigenous communities have mobilized not just around identity, but around a structured, credible, and serious ballot. Hugo isn't alone—he's backed by legal scholars, respected professionals, and a powerful community base. This is not a protest candidacy. He's part of a coordinated political project. If he wins, Hugo could become the first Indigenous president of the Supreme Court—and the most powerful Indigenous leader in Mexico since former President Benito Juárez.
Third, none of this would be possible without the INE. The INE isn't just an electoral organizer; it's the institutional memory of Mexico's democratic transition. It was built after decades of fraud to guarantee that votes are counted, verified, and trusted. While elections in the U.S. rely heavily on local discretion and good faith, Mexico's system is designed around safeguards, not trust. Every step is certified, reviewed, and secured.
This election has tested the INE like never before: thousands of candidates, multiple new ballots, limited funding, and intense political pressure. Despite all that, the system is holding. Yes, the rollout has been messy. Yes, some rules came too late. But the election is happening, and the votes will be counted. And in a country with our history, that fact alone is no small victory.
This isn't just a judicial election. It's a map. A test. A reckoning. And a mirror.
It will tell us what kind of democracy Mexico wants, and more importantly, who really holds power in the Mexico being built.
Roberto Trad is a Mexican political scientist and author with over 25 years of experience advising presidential and local campaigns across Latin America and the United States.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.