May air traffic remains resilient with only slight dip in numbers despite Operation Sindoor disruptions

Mint

6 hours ago

The Pahalgam massacre on 22 April set the tone for a retaliation the country knew was coming. Operation Sindoor began on 7 May 2025; the following days saw the closure of airspace as well as several airports across the country. Some passengers who had already cancelled plans to visit Kashmir found themselves stranded at other airports as well.
Overall, the industry ended May with 1.4 crore passengers, nearly equivalent to February, which had three fewer days. Traffic was 2 per cent lower than in April, the preceding month, but 1 per cent higher than in May 2024. From January to April, the country had been averaging close to 10 per cent growth over the corresponding months of the previous year. However, May suddenly put the brakes on this fast-paced growth, with June likely to follow suit.
IndiGo and Akasa Air gained market share over the preceding month, while the Air India group and SpiceJet lost a portion of theirs. Compared to last May, overall traffic has grown by only 1 per cent, but market dynamics have shifted significantly. IndiGo has gained 3 per cent market share, the Tata group of airlines has lost 1.5 per cent, and SpiceJet has shrunk by a further 1.6 per cent. SpiceJet's market share is now down to 2.4 per cent, the lowest so far this year.
Even with the relatively lower numbers in May, the average monthly traffic this year remains higher than in 2024, which had recorded the best-ever figures for civil aviation in India. This comes amid growing calls to lower fares and make air travel more affordable.
The Air India group has been losing market share since the mega-merger. In September last year, when the Tata group operated three airlines, Air India, Vistara, and Air India Express, its combined market share stood at 29.2 per cent. With the merger now complete, the group recorded a reduced market share of 26.5 per cent in May.
This decline is largely due to its significant exposure to the Srinagar sector, which makes up a considerable portion of its network. All airlines had to pull capacity out of Srinagar at very short notice, leaving little time to redeploy aircraft elsewhere. Additionally, more than 20 airports were closed for varying periods, including major ones like Jammu, Srinagar, Amritsar, and Chandigarh, all of which handle substantial traffic, further affecting deployment and operations.
In June, the deadly crash at Ahmedabad led to Air India reducing flights on both international and domestic routes, which will have a higher impact on its market share as it reduces the capacity deployed in the market.
The closure of airports led to a drop in flight count, and the overall anticipation of the Indian response had already led to cancellations of many holiday plans. Yet the numbers have managed to hold on to the previous year and are only slightly lower than April. This is largely because passengers quickly changed plans and continued with the holidays, but to a different location.
The first quarter of the financial year is typically a strong period for airlines. From mid-April onwards, school holidays boost tourism, with May and June being the peak months before traffic tapers off towards the end of June and into the second quarter.
However, this year, the quarter was disrupted by a series of events. The Pahalgam massacre at the end of April was followed by Operation Sindoor in May, and then the Air India crash in June, along with ongoing tensions in West Asia, all of which have impacted overall flight operations.
The traditional good quarter for airlines has turned out to be relatively dud. Delhi has started work on the installation of an Instrumentation Landing System (ILS) on one of its runways, which has led to the closure of one runway for three months until mid-September. Flight movements are reduced to ensure smooth work, which will further impact domestic traffic numbers.
The April to June quarter may not see airlines report profits like last year, and in some cases, like those of Air India, the recovery period is going to be much longer. However, the numbers for May have proven that a short-term war has not negatively impacted the sector. The sector is robust enough to hold on to its strengths and numbers even in the worst of times.