Calculating what every Premier League place is worth and what each team could earn

New York Times

7 days ago

As the Premier League season finishes this afternoon, the fight for the three remaining Champions League spots is the main issue to be resolved.
Liverpool's dominance and the chasm separating this year's three promoted teams from the rest means the title and relegation places are long since sorted.
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One thing that will be finalised is the domestic prize money handed out to this year's 20 top tier clubs. Liverpool, naturally, lead the way in merit payments, but the Anfield outfit will also take home the largest slice of facility fees, awarded to clubs on the basis of how many of their games are screened live across the season. Arne Slot's men led the way there too, appearing on our televisions 30 times this term.
Exact figures distributed to clubs for the 2024-25 season won't be known until the Premier League release them (last year they did so in June), but there's enough information available for us to take an educated stab at things.
The Premier League's prize pots are split into two broad categories covering broadcast income: income derived from domestic broadcast contracts (the UK portion), and income from overseas (the International portion). In addition, there's a central commercial pot, shared equally among the 20 clubs; new league-wide sponsorship deals with Guinness, Rezzil and Football Manager have boosted earnings there.
Amounts distributed to clubs from the UK portion have been flat in recent years and, with the new domestic TV cycle not kicking in until next season, are assumed to have remained at the same level in 2024-25.
On the contrary, the International portion continues to grow, and will shoot up under the new deal from 2025-26 onwards. The Premier League inked a handful of overseas deals starting this season, including one with U-Next in Japan and another split evenly between Fox Mexico and TNT Mexico and covering multiple nations in the Americas (Tubi, a streaming platform, have since picked up Fox's share for this season after the latter failed to make payments).
The Athletic has learnt that the 'equal share' payment to clubs, split across the UK and international portions, increased this season, up 2.4 per cent to £89million ($120.3m). Mirroring last season, the growth in the equal share pot is assumed in these calculations to have come on the International side.
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We've further assumed a four per cent rise in the overall distributions to clubs from the international portion; much of that growth was shared equally across the league, though we project the merit element has risen slightly this year too. international distributions have generally increased by over five per cent in the third year of a TV cycle (which this season is), but we've given a small haircut to take into account the Fox/Tubi disruption.
On a merit basis, we expect any change in league position later today will impact clubs to the tune of around £2.9m per spot. In that sense, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur have the most to gain, with both able to move up three positions on the final day — banking an extra £8.7m in merit payment if they do. Manchester City and Wolves have the most to lose; each could drop by three spots if results don't go their way.
Put it all together and Liverpool lead the way — and we expect they'll take home a record sum for a Premier League side. The previous high in domestic prize money was Manchester City's £176.2million in 2022-23. Our projection has Liverpool as the first club to top £180m in Premier League distributions, with a total prize pot of £181.5m.
Below them, Arsenal earned the second most for the third season running, before there's a £6m or so gap to City. Should City retain their hold on third place today, we expect they'll earn £171.5m — making them one of only four clubs we think will earn less than they did in 2023-24.
City's reduction is small compared to the other three sides. Should West Ham United fail to better Wolves' result, they'll wind up six places lower than last season in 15th which, combined with three fewer televised games, reduces their income by £16.2m.
An even bigger reduction is in store for Wednesday night's Europa League finalists. Manchester United's grim season will, by our reckoning, generate £19.5m less in domestic prize money, though that's just one among many miserable financial tales for them.
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Spurs' win in Bilbao nabbed them long overdue silverware and, crucially, a return to Champions League football. That will be a welcome boost to the coffers. We project Spurs' Premier League distribution this season will be £130.4m, a galling £34.2m fall from a year ago. What's more, with the exclusion of the Covid-hit 2019-20 season, this season is likely to generate Spurs' lowest level of Premier League earnings since 2016.
Overall, 80 per cent of the league can expect higher takings this season (though, based on current league positions, we have Crystal Palace's uplift on last year as marginal). The biggest gainers are obviously the three promoted clubs who, despite largely toothless efforts at survival, will each earn nine figures for their one-year Premier League presence. £110.9million for Southampton would be a new record high for the lowest-earning team in a given Premier League season.
We project seven other clubs will enjoy improved prize money of £10m or more, most of them occupying upper mid-table spots as we go into the final round of fixtures. Brighton, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth are all currently on course for between £140m and £150m, and the latter three could each improve their lot if results go their way today. Newcastle United, meanwhile, will take home a club-record £168.7m if they hold onto fourth place.
Eclipsing them all in terms of improved earnings are Nuno Espirito Santo's Nottingham Forest. Forest's slip to seventh might have disappointed some but, in a financial sense, they stand to reap a huge reward whatever happens today. Our projection has them earning £157.5m for their efforts this season, even if they fail to vault back into a Champions League spot later on.
For context, that is over five times the club's total revenue when they were promoted from the Championship, just three seasons ago.
(Top image: Getty Images)