
India offers 'deep cuts' on tariffs as talks with US proceed
New Delhi aims, however, to maintain high tariffs on key agricultural products, the outlet has said
India has proposed deep cuts in import tariffs on various goods, in an effort to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. However, the country reportedly aims to maintain high tariffs on sensitive agricultural products, such as grains and dairy items.
India is seeking to secure a deal before July 9, when the US has threatened to impose a 26% reciprocal tariff on all Indian goods. Sources familiar with the negotiations told the FT that India has shown willingness to cut tariffs on less sensitive farm products such as almonds, which currently face tariffs of up to 120%. It could also consider reducing tariffs on imported oil and gas, which range from 2.5 to 3%, the report said.
The FT's sources declined to provide details on the range of US goods which New Delhi offered to "substantially" cut tariffs on, as the negotiations were at an "early stage." Indian trade officials have hinted, however, that any concessions would be similar to those offered in recent trade agreements, such as the one they have with the UK, in which India agreed to reduce tariffs on items such as alcoholic spirits, cars - including electric vehicles - car parts, and engineering goods.
On Tuesday, India said that a successful trade agreement with the US could "flip current headwinds into tailwinds," according to a report by the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review. This can "open up new market access and energize exports," the report added.
The US introduced an additional tariff on Indian products, effective April 2, but it was suspended for a 90-day period, and is set to expire on July 9. Meanwhile, the standard 10% US tariff on Indian goods remains in places.
US President Donald Trump has called India the "tariff king." In February, New Delhi announced a reduction in customs duties on items including luxury cars and solar cells, according to reports, in a move seen as aimed at addressing US trade concerns.
India's federal budget for 2025 proposed reducing the peak import tariff from 150% to 70% and average tariffs from 13% to below 11%. India is also willing to buy US defense equipment and liquefied natural gas, government officials said. However, despite this, the US has advised companies such as Apple to avoid expanding manufacturing in India.
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Indian Express
15 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Amid tariff war, China appears unfazed, but its economy could be vulnerable; high debt and high deficit loom large
China's economy seems to have ostensibly shaken off the doomsday predictions stemming from the ongoing trade war with the United States, with that country's national statistics bureau presenting a picture of calm in its later GDP data release for April 2025. It showed stable growth with a mild softening in consumption and investment, and overall employment largely remaining stable. Retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.1 per cent year-on-year, just slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 5.5 per cent, while service industry production too increased by 6 per cent, and fixed asset investment rose 4 per cent over the previous year. Officials cited key factors like consumer trading programmes that incentivise purchase of household goods through a discounting scheme, increase in tourist and transportation inflows, as well as the Belt and Road Initiative as 'stabilising forces'. They are upbeat about economic growth projections staying on track, but analysts remain cautious. China's strengths, apart from its large and diversified economy, include its strong GDP growth prospects relative to peers, its pivotal role in global trade and robust external finances. More importantly, Beijing is seeing success in its efforts to build a whole new economic engine as part of its 'Made in China 2025' national strategic plan, which promises to be a source of future resilience, according to analysts. This includes world-beating companies in areas such as new energy, including solar panels and batteries, electric vehicles, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and AI. Notable among these are GCL Technology, the world's second leading producer of polysilicon — the key material for solar panels; electric vehicles makers led by global auto heavyweight BYD, Leapmotor and Nio and lithium-ion battery makers including CATL and BYD. The Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) combine, which have been working together to develop and produce cutting-edge chips, particularly in the light of US sanctions limiting Huawei's access to advanced technology, have been successful, quite like the Chinese space programme that also worked around American sanctions. Even as the prolonged slump in China's property market is dragging down consumer confidence and weighing on an economy already suffering from the effects of low productivity in heavy industry and cheap manufacturing, Beijing is seeing remarkable success in its focus on creating a high-tech, clean, and sustainable replacement to its old economy in the forms of these new age companies, with the aim of becoming the global leaders in each of these technologies. These, in turn, are seen as serving to transform China's image as the world's manufacturer of mass-produced goods and materials. As US President Donald Trump and his cabinet full of China hawks set out to address the trade imbalances, there could some looming concerns for Beijing. While the general impression is that a prolonged phase of higher duties could hurt the US more than China, analysts point to the fact that given the latter's precarious finances and some inherent structural weaknesses, a drawn-out tariff war could hurt Beijing as much as Washington, DC, if not more. If it lingers, China's underlying structural issues that range from high government debt, demographic decline, rising youth unemployment, combined with growing trade tension, could force a stumble, if not a stall. Festering Problems What is undeniable is that China's growth over the last couple of decades has been powered by capital investments, especially in the real estate sector, much of which has been financed by an inefficient banking system. With domestic debt levels high and rising, the property market continues to be under severe stress ever since property major Evergrande went belly up in 2023. The real estate crisis has badly dented consumer sentiment, given that nearly one in four Chinese have some sort of an investment in real estate. The investment in China's property market fell by nearly 10 per cent in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to latest official data, amid the renewed trade tensions with the US. For Chinese consumer sentiment taking a hit, the residential real estate market is one important factor. Then there are structural issues with the Chinese economy as well. While China has leveraged export growth and infrastructure investments to power its economic development over the last four decades, there is now the growing problem of youth unemployment. According to Hong Kong-based Spanish economist Alicia Garcia Herrero, outsiders see less of the unemployment problem than what actually exists there because in the Chinese manufacturing sector, workers are routinely asked to take unpaid leave. So these workers end up working fewer hours, and earning less, while technically being on the rolls. This, according to Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis and adjunct Professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, is one reason why disposable income is not growing in China. The trigger for that is automation, given that industrial capacity in China is increasingly getting mechanised. 'China's economic power is increasing, but household power, or purchasing power, is not'. Fitch Ratings said in an April report that the step-up in fiscal stimulus announced by China's government for 2025 is likely to support the economic outlook, but the large budget deficit points to a continued rise in government debt in the next few years. Deteriorating public finances were the key factor behind the rating agency's decision to revise the 'outlook on China's 'A+' sovereign rating' to negative in April 2024. Debt/deficit Overhang China's fiscal deficit is budgeted to rise to 8.8 per cent of GDP in 2025, up from 6.5 per cent in 2024 (on a Fitch-adjusted basis) based on government reports at the annual legislative session of the National People's Congress. Experts say this – the combined deficit of the federal government and provinces – could be closer to 10 per cent. This is well above the projected median deficit for 'A' category sovereigns of 2.7 per cent of GDP, Fitch said in its report. The government's official deficit target was raised to 4 per cent of GDP in 2025 from 3 per cent last year. Experts say that China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio could be higher than what is put out, if one were to take into account the so-called 'hidden debt' and adjust for 'inflated' GDP claims. Western analysts have consistently maintained that China did not grow anywhere near the reported 5 per cent pace last year and are willing to shave off up to a percentage point from that number. Lower GDP, consequently, worsens the deficit situation statistically. Some of this increase in deficit is now driven by lower revenue, due partly to a structural decline in property-related revenues and tax cuts. Revenue is budgeted to fall to just 21.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, under Fitch's adjusted definition, down from 28.4 per cent in 2019. The government is discussing the introduction of new revenue-enhancing measures, but fiscal consolidation could face challenges if these are not forthcoming. 'China has grown almost entirely through capital investment,and because there isn't enough to invest in, a lot of good money chases bad, and they have reached a limit,' noted Anne Stevenson-Yang founded J Capital Research. That problem only seems to be worsening. 'External pressures will be particularly acute for Mainland China, at a time when the domestic economy is still finding its footing amid ongoing property sector challenges, subdued household confidence and consumption, and deflationary pressures… Fiscal policy will likely be a key tool for trying to stabilise the property market and offsetting external and domestic headwinds, keeping growth at around 4.3 per cent, but driving wider fiscal deficits and higher government debt, Jeremy Zook, Director, Fitch-Hong Kong said in a report titled 'Greater China Sovereigns Outlook 2025'. High fiscal deficits, coupled with subdued nominal GDP growth and the materialization of contingent liabilities, could continue to put upward pressure on China's debt problem. 'We estimate that general government debt (including central and local government debt) rose above 60 per cent of GDP in 2024, up from around 55 per cent in 2023 and exceeding the median for 'A'-category sovereigns of 57 per cent. In 2025, the debt ratio is likely to rise to the high-60s per cent of GDP level, based on budget plans and the ongoing 'debt swap' that will bring around trillion of yuan worth off-balance sheet debt onto local government books,' Fitch said. Expanding consumption remains the top government priority for Beijing in 2025. It is still unclear as to how large the fiscal impulse has to be, or whether it will sustainably lift underlying domestic demand. The government has set an ambitious growth target of around 5 per cent for 2025, and a lot will depend on stking demand, amid headwinds from subdued domestic demand, lingering property-sector stress and rising external challenges. Growth moderation/local govt debt According to the IMF Executive Board, which concluded the 2024 Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) with China, said that China's investment-led high growth model has given way to more moderate growth amid an unresolved property sector adjustment and an overhang of local government financing vehicle debt. Financial stability risks are elevated and rising, as compared to the 2017 FSAP, It noted, as asset quality deteriorates and bank profitability declines. While the largest banks are well capitalised and liquid, and appear resilient to shock, mid-sized and smaller banks 'appear more vulnerable'. The property sector downturn and local government financing vehicle debt pose risks, while loss deferral practices reduce transparency and may veil losses, the IMF said. Amid all this is the unfolding US-China trade war. There is a sense in Washington DC that China has gotten away with low cost manufacturing for too long. No other country has had the same level of global dominance across product categories since the early 1970s. This is more significant now than in earlier decades, when trade represented a much lower share of global goods production and consumption. For instance, the global trade-to-GDP ratio in 1970 was around 25 per cent, but by 2022, that climbed to over 60 per cent. Weakening domestic demand, alongside export-facilitating policies in products, where China is the world's dominant manufacturer, has led to prices collapsing globally and driving other national producers out of business. While the benefit of this has been a phase of sustained lower global inflation, China has simultaneously created a progressive stranglehold over global manufacturing: a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the US just after the second World War, according to research by the Rhodium Group and from views flagged by Noah Smith's 'Manufacturing is a war now' piece. What makes China's extraordinary dominance in manufacturing worse is the continuing weakness in domestic demand in China. That too comes from the problem of China's unwillingness to vacate its earlier specialisation in low value-added manufactured products as it moved up the global value chain. This has concomitantly led to a weakness in Chinese demand for imported goods, which was expected to rise if China had ceded the manufacture of low value-added manufactured goods as it progressively moved up the value chain. So, more than Beijing's export competitiveness, weak Chinese imports explain this continuing imbalance. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More


Economic Times
16 minutes ago
- Economic Times
How is India benefiting from supply chain diversification away from China? Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya explains
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , Chief Asia Economist,says India is gaining advantage due to tariff differences with China. American companies are considering increased imports from India. Government policies are boosting manufacturing and exports. Electronics manufacturing is expanding beyond mobile phones. Infrastructure development will further strengthen India's manufacturing exports. Optimism in Indian equity markets aligns with positive economic fundamentals. The organization maintains a bullish outlook on think that the government capex has been the key anchor of the capex cycle and to the extent to which India has been embarking on this focus on manufacturing capex, the government's focus on infrastructure would be an important anchor to that private capex eventually improving as now, it is still the government capex and we had seen a bump down or a small slowdown period for government capex post general elections last year. But we have seen that in the last three-four months, there has been a meaningful pick up in government capex. In March, we saw that both central and state government capex growing at a very high pace and that has now taken the 12-month trailing centre plus state combined capital expenditure to close to the peaks that we had seen right before the general have seen this strength in government capex coming back again. As far as private capex is concerned, we were expecting that would have picked up a lot more by this time, but to the extent to which we have seen this trade tensions emerge from early this year that is going to affect the capex outlook not only in the region, but also in India, despite the fact that India has lower exposure to global goods reality is that it still has a meaningful exposure of 12% of GDP being its goods exports to GDP. We are expecting private capex to be going through a bit of an adjustment period in the environment of global trade tensions and then, over the next calendar year, that is, in 2026, we should see a pick up in private capex because by that time, the damage out of this global trade tensions would have been behind is benefiting on account of it. Right now, during a period where tariffs on China, even after having come down, are still at a very high run rate of 30% and from the 2018 period, you also have about 11% weighted average tariff on imports from China that the US has imposed. Cumulatively, we still have a 41% tariff rate for import from China for the US and that does give some sectors an advantage over China in terms of pricing and even sort of thinking about a bit more from a medium-term corporate sector in America is beginning to think about importing more from India. India is probably benefiting on account of that. Then, from a medium-term perspective, we have always argued that look, it is not just about taking away market share from China, but just getting rightful market share for India in the global goods exports and for that India's policies that were important and the government has been taking the right policies to boost that manufacturing sector have seen electronics manufacturing getting a leg up. We are going to see that expand into more and more products within the electronic segment apart from mobile phones and laptops. And at the same time, we think that from a medium-term perspective, this whole push towards infrastructure will really strengthen India's manufacturing exports. It is really a lot of the domestic policies that will be important from the long term apart from the short-term benefit that it may get on account of differential tariff rates between India and our regional and India strategists have been very constructive on India. So, we are aligned up as a house on being bullish on India.


Economic Times
17 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Tariff jitters temporary, long-term upside intact for India Inc.: Deepak Shenoy
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "Overall fund flows seem to be more concentrated towards domestic. There is also a lot more action in terms of results and some of these tariff news and all that stuff which is kind of still creating a lot of uncertainty," says Deepak Shenoy , Founder, Capital Mind We saw about 25,000 crores enter the markets as fresh entries into mutual funds in April and given that May was like a 9% plus month for smallcaps and smallcap funds have been the second largest recipient of funds in April, that will kind of bolster more retail investment into domestic funds even that, overall fund flows seem to be more concentrated towards domestic. There is also a lot more action in terms of results and some of these tariff news and all that stuff which is kind of still creating a lot of have come to the realisation that there is a little bit of back and forth and anybody says something about tariffs that is likely to be changed very quickly in whichever direction and mostly in the direction of removing those tariffs in a short period of I feel that in the end we will come down to 10% tariffs by the US to everybody and by and large some countries may receive a little more but I do not think this is going to be a major impact longer we realise this, it is less of an impact overall. The themes that seem to still be working is manufacturing, is financialization , and is maybe defence as themes that hurt perhaps are commodities because a large amount is based on world-wide demand as well, so that theme seems to be constant. I do not think today is any special day in that sense, but we have to be cognisant that as these tariffs come off and as eventually the wars in the world come to some kind of conclusion, the upside for India is definitely strong and I am biased, I am a fund manager, so we have to be positive but some of the positives are going to get more visible in the next six I will be honest. We run a company in this industry and therefore very-very heavily biased. But I still think this is the tip of the iceberg in terms of how much this industry can scale. I would not talk about who the winners will be and who the losers will be, but India is terribly under-financialized. Less than 18% of our GDP is in mutual funds whereas in America that number is more than 100%. So, to a certain extent there is a lot of room for the Indian organised financial industry to move. We are moving away from the real estate, gold, and chit funds kind of products to save into real financial products or financial products of a more regulated sort which has a lot more potential. You are seeing this happening. 25,000 crores a month net new inflows, most of that coming through SIPs This has not slowed down meaningfully even through the fact that the markets have corrected. We have seen more regulatory action that has fortified, so whether it is an RTA, whether it is an AMC, whether it is an exchange, or whether it is a depository all of them are getting more and more prominent in the overall structural framework of now it is becoming more and more easy to transact in them, to deal with them if a person dies transferring a financial product is way easier than trying to transfer say real estate or anything like a lot of these things add up over time and fortify people's minds into saying okay we will do this. You cannot sell half a house, but you could sell half a mutual therefore, people are actually getting more and more into financial products as such and the financial products themselves are investing in different things. You can buy gold through a mutual fund. You can buy stocks through a mutual fund. You can buy bonds and so on. So that way the industry itself has kind of scaled we are also seeing wealth management players, people who manage the money of relatively richer people even those stocks are kind of increasing in value and they are increasing in terms of growth as well, in terms of real profits. So, from that perspective we are yes, maybe we are overpaying for these stocks today, but a structural approach to buy them over a period of time is perhaps necessary for any growth oriented portfolio.