Storm could bring up to 2 feet of snow in northern Arizona, light showers in Phoenix

Yahoo

13-02-2025

A powerful storm could finally bring precipitation to Arizona this week after months of dry conditions, but snow and rain totals won't be enough to offset this season's drought.
Southern California is experiencing a strong "atmospheric river" Thursday and the remnants will make their way into Arizona, bringing rain and snow across the state.
'There's a large, deep atmospheric river moving through California, and we're going to see the remnants of that,' said Brian Klimowski, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Flagstaff.
Northern and western Arizona will get the brunt of the moisture, finally bringing snowfall to Flagstaff during one of its driest winters on record. The higher elevations could see up to 2 feet of snow, more than Flagstaff — with just 5.9 inches since Oct. 1 — has seen all winter.
Phoenix could see some rain Friday, with a 60% chance of precipitation and less than an inch of rain possible during the day.
Despite some much-needed moisture coming into the state in time for Valentine's Day, precipitation totals will not be enough to make up for months of short-term drought across Arizona.
An atmospheric river is a long, narrow region of water vapor in the atmosphere, like a river in the sky. These systems gather moisture from the tropics near the equator and move it toward the poles.
Once the vapor hits land, it ascends higher into the atmosphere, cooling enough to form water droplets and fall as rain or snow in higher elevations.
But these systems tend to dissipate when they reach Arizona because of the topography.
In this case, most of the moisture will hit California as the storm moves through, but it will funnel showers into Arizona before dying out.
'The mountains between us and the coast of California take the moisture out of the atmosphere,' Klimowski said. 'By the time that air mass gets to us, a lot of that liquid is gone.'
Flagstaff is set to get more snow than it has all season this week as the system hits Arizona.
Klimowski predicts lower elevations in Flagstaff will get 4 to 8 inches of snow this week, with Snowbowl and other areas in the San Francisco Peaks accumulating up to 2 feet.
'We're going to have a mix of rain and snow through midnight or so,' Klimowski said. 'Then as a cold front arrives temperatures will decrease, precipitation will increase and we'll see heavy snow later tonight through tomorrow morning."
Since Oct. 1, Flagstaff has had 5.9 inches of snow, far below the 57-inch average for this time of year.
'It's been extraordinarily dry and snow-free here in Flagstaff, one of the least snowiest and one of the driest winters on record,' Klimowski added. 'This will help, but we definitely won't be catching up to our normal snowpack.'
He urges caution for those traveling Friday morning during peak snowfall and to reconsider Valentine's Day plans amid wintery conditions.
But the snowy weather won't last long. The weather service's extended models do not show any significant precipitation after this system moves through.
The remnants of the atmospheric river will mostly hit northern and western Arizona, but Phoenix could get some rainfall from the system on Friday.
Rain chances start in the morning, with the best chances from mid-morning to early afternoon.
'There's a 60 to 70% chance in areas across the metro that there will be rain falling, but don't expect much,' said Mark O'Malley, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Phoenix. 'It's not enough to offset the drought; some people may not see anything at all.'
Temperatures will be near the seasonal normal through the weekend, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s as the moisture clears out.
Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at [e-mail].
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Storm could bring 2 feet of snow to mountains, little rain in Phoenix