NOAA predicts ‘above normal' Atlantic hurricane season. CT experts say outlook is a call to action.
Experts are predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to be 'above-normal' this year, as scientists say warm sea surface temperatures may lead to more frequent and intense storms, urging those along the East Coast to be prepared.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association said the outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to officials.
Hurricanes, fueled by warm ocean waters and thunderstorms, often form at sea and then move toward land where they can cause catastrophic damage and loss of life, according to Dr. Jennifer Marlon, senior research scientist at the Yale School of the Environment.
According to NOAA, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season produced 18 named storms. Of those, 11 became hurricanes and five strengthened into major hurricanes.
Bob Child / ASSOCIATED PRESSThese boats broke from their moorings and were blown onto rocks in New London, Connecticut on Friday, Sept. 27, 1985, during Hurricane Gloria. Winds of more than 90 miles per hour battered Connecticut's coast during the storm, but damage was minimal. John Long / Hartford CourantScenes like this one, at Groton Long Point during Hurricane Gloria last Sept, may become more common in CT as the green house effect causes the sea level to rise. Michael McAndrews / Hartford CourantHurricane Gloria's damage seen on the shoreline in Milford. Stephen Dunn / Hartford CourantHurricane Gloria hit the coast line hard sending dozens of pleasure boats up onto the railroad tracks looking like parallel parked cars in Stonington. Show CaptionBob Child / ASSOCIATED PRESS1 of 5Boats lie on the shore in Milford harbor on Sunday, Sept. 29, 1985, two days after Hurricane Gloria hit Connecticut. The same thing happened to boats all along the Connecticut more as they were torn from moorings by the hurricane winds in excess of 90 mph.Expand
NOAA is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms this year with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to reach hurricane strength, officials said.
'The projected above-normal activity is due to warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Atlantic (Ocean),' said Marlon.
NOAA said that additional factors including weaker winds and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes, is another reason for the projection. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The higher heat on the ocean surface provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption, Marlon said.
'In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,' said NOAA's National Weather Service director Ken Graham.
'This outlook is a call to action. Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens.'
The last hurricane to make landfall in Connecticut was Category 1 hurricane Gloria in 1985 that brought heavy rainfall and winds of 74–95 miles per hour, according to NOAA. The commonly called 'storm of the century' killed at least six people, caused power outages for about 700,000 residents, and was considered the worst hurricane to hit Connecticut since 1938.
Connecticut has been impacted by several strong tropical storms over the past few decades. Tropical Storm Irene impacted the state in August 2011. As a result of its 96 miles of coastline, some Connecticut towns are subject to storm surges during major weather events.
While it was a hurricane initially, it weakened to a tropical storm by the time it hit the state. Hurricane Sandy hit Connecticut in 2012, but it was also not a hurricane by the time it reached the state. Tropical Storm Isaias, which hit the state in 2020, caused widespread power outages and over $50 million in damage.
The names in the 2025 hurricane season are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Recommendations from the National Weather Service include understanding whether your home is vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, or wind and this should be checked long before any storm might hit.
Know your zone: Find out if you live in a hurricane evacuation area by contacting your local government/emergency management office or by checking the evacuation site website. Because of the coastline along Long Island Sound, Connecticut has multiple evacuation areas, data shows, Assemble Emergency Kit: Put together a basic emergency. Check emergency equipment, such as flashlights, generators and storm shutters. Have a Family Emergency Plan: Before an emergency happens, sit down with your family or close friends and decide how you will get in contact with each other, where you will go, and what you will do in an emergency. Keep a copy of this plan in your emergency supplies kit or another safe place where you can access it in the event of a disaster. Start at the Ready.Gov emergency plan webpage. Review insurance 'policies to ensure that you have adequate coverage for your home and personal property.'
Stephen Underwood can be reached at sunderwood@courant.com.
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