The Yield Curve Is Telling US Investors To Buy: Europe

Forbes

a day ago

In the cacophony of market noise surrounding tariffs, AI valuations, and Federal Reserve policy, one of the most powerful signals for international equity allocation is being completely overlooked. The yield curve—that fundamental barometer of banking profitability and economic health—has been quietly transforming across the Atlantic, creating a compelling case for U.S. investors to pivot toward European markets.
While American investors obsess over the latest earnings from the Magnificent Seven, European stocks have surged roughly 9% over the past three months, handily beating the S&P 500's modest gains. This outperformance isn't coincidental—it's the direct result of a fundamental shift in European yield curves that most investors have failed to recognize.
The mechanics are straightforward: yield curves measure the difference between short-term and long-term government bond rates. When long-term rates exceed short-term rates, creating an upward-sloping "steep" curve, banks can borrow cheaply and lend profitably. This dynamic supercharges lending activity, economic growth, and ultimately, stock performance.
For over two years, inverted yield curves across developed markets signaled economic pessimism and constrained bank lending. But European curves have quietly normalized and steepened while America's remains problematically flat.
The trend to steeper yield curves in developed markets continued over April, as the short end benefited from easing in many areas, if not the US. Britain's yield curve has swung from deeply inverted at -0.82% to a healthy positive 0.38%—a massive 1.2 percentage point shift. The Eurozone has seen an even more dramatic transformation, moving from -0.61% to +0.91%, representing a full 1.5 percentage point steepening. Meanwhile, America's yield curve remains marginally inverted, creating a tale of two continents for banking profitability and economic momentum.
The implications for European banks are immediate and profound. European banks' net interest income remained strong in Q4 2024, growing 5% year-on-year despite multiple rate cuts by central banks, and the steepening curve provides additional tailwinds for 2025.
The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index climbed 26% last year, its best performance since the 34% logged in 2021. More remarkably, European banks exceeded Q1 2025 expectations with strong earnings, stable credit quality and resilient net interest income, despite economic uncertainties.
This isn't just about immediate profits. Banks with healthier net interest margins become more aggressive lenders, creating a virtuous cycle of economic expansion. European businesses, which rely on bank lending for 77% of their financing needs compared to just 40% in the United States, stand to benefit disproportionately from this renewed banking vigor.
Among the most compelling investment opportunities in Europe today is BNP Paribas, France's largest bank and a global financial powerhouse. In my March 3rd Forbes article, I discussed BNP Paribas which is up 18% since then. Trading at a price-to-book ratio significantly below its historical average, BNP Paribas offers exposure to both European economic recovery and international banking operations. The bank has demonstrated remarkable resilience through various economic cycles and continues to maintain strong capital ratios despite market volatility.
The yield curve steepening explains why MSCI Europe stock index hit all-time highs this month and why value-heavy European industrials and consumer discretionary stocks are outperforming. These sectors thrive on increased lending and capital formation—exactly what steeper yield curves facilitate.
Equity Europe still marginally leads Equity US on both monthly and year-to-date fund flow figures, suggesting sophisticated institutional investors are already positioning for this macro shift. The 1.5 percentage point steepening in European curves represents a fundamental repricing of growth expectations that hasn't been fully reflected in equity valuations.
American yield curves remain constrained by Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and stubborn inflation expectations. The spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields remains a critical economic indicator, with its current positive slope suggesting optimism about a soft landing, but the curve remains relatively flat compared to European counterparts. This divergence creates a rare opportunity for U.S. investors to benefit from European monetary policy normalization while American policy remains restrictive.
The convergence of steeper yield curves, improved banking profitability, and depressed investor sentiment creates a perfect storm for European equity outperformance. For U.S. investors seeking diversification away from expensive domestic markets, the yield curve is providing a clear roadmap.
While American investors debate the sustainability of tech valuations and parse Federal Reserve communications, European yield curves are quietly engineering a fundamental shift in regional competitiveness. The steepening that has already occurred represents just the beginning of a multi-year tailwind for European banks, industrials, and the broader equity market.
Smart money follows the yield curve. Right now, it's pointing decisively toward Europe.
The author may or may not have positions in any securities mentioned in this article.