400 years ago, Arabia witnessed five times more extreme rains, reveals study
A study has suggested that the Arabian Peninsula witnessed five times more extreme rains almost 400 years ago than today.
It also hints that the last 2,000 years were much wetter, with the region's climate once resembling a vegetated savannah roaming with lions, leopards, and wolves, unlike its present-day hyper-arid desert.Researchers from the University of Miami revealed that as the Middle East rapidly urbanizes, wide variability of Late Holocene rains should be considered in flash flood preparedness and future hydroclimate trajectories.
Sam Purkis, chair of the Department of Marine Geosciences at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School and the lead author of the study, stated that as major development projects like NEOM in Saudi Arabia continue to reshape the landscape, the study's findings underscore the critical need for enhanced climate resilience and disaster preparedness to address the growing threat of extreme weather events in the region.Researchers used a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) at over a mile depth from the research vessel OceanXplorer, and extracted sediment cores from a deep-sea brine pool in the Gulf of Aqaba, an extension of the northern Red Sea.The brine's chemistry preserves undisturbed sediment layers, providing a unique and highly accurate record of Late Holocene rainfall trends. The research team found that the last 2,000 years in Arabia were much wetter, with the region once a vegetated savannah and about 200 years ago, rainfall was double the current amount.
"This is a key record to fill in the history of Middle Eastern climate," said Amy Clement, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School."What it tells us is that the climate, both the average and the extremes, can change dramatically in this region, and the assumption of long-term climate stability in future development is not a good one."Published in Science Advances, the study's researchers discovered an anoxic deep-sea brine pool sited close enough to shore to chronicle floods, yet be otherwise undisturbed by animals.The research team revealed that the cores retrieved from the pool delivered a 1600-year rainfall record. The team merged these core-layer histories with modern rainfall statistics, satellite observations, and simulations to deliver a high-resolution quantitative Late Holocene hydroclimate record for Arabia."We find that the modern era is 2.5 times drier than the last 1.6 thousand years. The Little Ice Age stands out as particularly wet. That period experienced a fivefold increase in rainfall intensity compared to today. Though hyperarid now, the flood layers demonstrate that climate shifts can generate weather conditions unwitnessed in the modern era," said researchers in the study.The Middle East is considered a climate hotspot, with increasing flash floods from torrential winter rains, interspersed by harsh droughts, in Arabia causing widespread chaos and humanitarian disasters. The variability of Late Holocene rainfall highlights the need for better flash flood and drought preparedness and understanding future hydroclimate trends as the Middle East rapidly urbanizes, according to a press release by researchers."Utilizing the technology on OceanXplorer in combination with multidisciplinary experts in ocean and climate science we can further our understanding of the linkages between ocean systems and long-term weather and climate trends, to help at-risk areas be ready for the future," said Mattie Rodrigue, science program director at OceanX.Researchers feel that the catastrophic flooding across the Arabian Peninsula in the winter of 2024 underscores the urgency of studying the frequency and triggers of such extreme weather events.
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