From potatoes to cocoa and coffee, severe weather spikes food prices worldwide, study finds
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In addition to contributing to overall inflation, the authors identify political unrest as another potential societal risk. 'Our paper is really a call to action for us to consider these wider effects of food price increases in response to climate change for our societies more widely, as these effects are going to continue to become worse in the future,' said Kotz.
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A figure in the study maps the 16 examples of climate-induced food price spikes since 2022, colour coded by degree and type of event (heat, drought and floods).
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'If you looked at Max's global picture, what you'd see through the eyes of an economist is well-functioning markets,' said Raj Patel, a member of the IPES-Food panel and a research professor at the University of Texas at Austin, who wasn't involved in the study. 'The weather turns, the crop becomes less likely to come out of the ground, and prices spike. But there is a political-economic consequence for that.'
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The researchers note that food price volatility has been linked to political instability throughout history, such as 2011's Arab Spring and the French and Russian revolutions of the 18th and 20th centuries.
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'The meaning of food price inflation is political. It's always political,' said Patel.
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He cites Mozambique's 2010 bread riots, the roots of which were planted in Russia, where wildfires burned during the country's worst heatwave in more than a century. A lack of firefighting infrastructure made it difficult to put them out, and the country's main growing areas were decimated. As a result, Russia imposed an embargo on wheat exports, and global prices surged. People died due to the wildfires in Russia and during protests, sparked by sky-high bread prices, on the streets of Mozambique.
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'This is how a heat spike in Russia can cause deaths by live ammunition in Mozambique,' adds Patel. 'These are the kinds of arcs that we need to be looking for when we understand climate change. Because climate change isn't just, 'Oh, it's hot outside.' Climate change is always freighted with a political valence.'
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