Why Blockbuster Deals Are Back in Fashion

Business of Fashion

2 days ago

Stock market jitters, recession fears and President Donald Trump's mercurial trade policy are often cited as reasons to hold off on making any big decisions. And yet the fashion and beauty industries' deal sheets keep getting longer.
Since Trump announced his tariff policy in April, there have been five major acquisitions, from Prada Group's $1.4 billion acquisition of Versace to E.l.f.'s $1 billion buyout of Hailey Bieber's Rhode on Wednesday. And that's not counting the secondary offering of shares that Birkenstock and Amer Sports issued Thursday, as much a show of confidence in the market as their own brands.
This isn't how it was supposed to go. Prior to last month, there had been only a trickle of major fashion or beauty deals, with hot brands — including Rhode — seeming to languish on the market for want of buyers. Trump's tariffs and signs of a US economic slowdown were expected to deepen the freeze. Theoretically, retailers and investors are better off playing it safe, reserving cash flow in case consumer spending, already on shaky ground before Liberation Day, falls further.
So why is the M&A market suddenly booming?
No single factor explains all five of these deals. Capri Holdings sought to offload Versace as it works to turn around Michael Kors, its biggest brand. Levi's, too, was looking to narrow its focus when it sold its Dockers chino label to Authentic Brands Group on May 20 for $311 million. But both E.l.f. And Dick's Sporting Goods were looking to build out their portfolios with their acquisitions of Rhode and Foot Locker, respectively. And Skechers' $9.4 billion sale to private equity firm 3G on May 5 likely had an element of succession planning to it, given founder Robert Greenberg is 85 years old.
Some of these deals still might have happened if Kamala Harris won the election, or US consumer confidence was still buoyant. But it's also true that volatile times make for unique opportunities.
'There are people with enough foresight and risk tolerance to look at dislocation and see uncertainty as creating an opportunity rather than a barrier,' said Simeon Siegel, analyst at BMO Capital Markets.
Bargain Hunting. With the exception of Rhode, all the brands that passed hands in the last two months were purchased at a discount. Prada, for instance, nabbed Versace for $700 million less than what Capri paid in 2018. Even after Dick's agreed to a nearly 90 percent premium for Foot Locker, the sneaker retailer's stock still trades below its year-ago level. Skechers also sold at a small discount to its stock price as recently as February.
'For buyers, these current valuations are lower than the fundamental valuation of the businesses they acquire because of the moment in time influenced by trade policies,' said Matthew Tingler, managing director of Baird's global consumer investment banking group.
Tingler said he anticipates that more deals will materialise in the coming months. Marissa Lepor, managing director at boutique investment bank the Sage Group, said the deals she has worked on in recent months have not been deferred by the news of tariffs.
Buying Power. Acquirers like Prada, Dick's Sporting Goods and E.l.f. have consistently outperformed their peers in recent years and have accumulated the cash to be able to take a risk by expanding into new categories or markets, even in a weak economy.
'The businesses that have diverse infrastructures and very experienced management teams are much more agile to navigate [economic uncertainty],' said Lepor.
The Price of Inaction. Beyond the question of why, the question of why not is just as relevant, according to Lepor.
'There's risk to doing anything but there's also a risk to doing nothing,' she said. 'Every time a public company chooses not to acquire a business but their competitor does, there's a potential significant cost to the loss of business.'
High Risk, High Reward. Still, snapping up a fashion brand in a volatile economy is no sure bet, especially with tariffs threatening margins and consumer confidence on shaky ground. Dick's acquisition of Foot Locker, a mall chain that has struggled to adapt to the shifting streetwear landscape, will hinge on its capacity to rehabilitate a fading business at a time when shoppers are reluctant to open their wallets.
While the risks may be significant, so is the potential payoff. E.l.f.'s acquisition of Rhode is case in point: a bold swing in a shaky market, but one that offers massive potential returns from a prestige Gen-Z skincare brand at a time when mass-market-focussed E.l.f.'s own growth has slowed.
'It's natural for people to feel paralysed in times of uncertainty but heroes are created in years of famine — not years of feast,' said Siegel.
THE NEWS IN BRIEF
FASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY (Getty Images)
A federal appeals court allowed Trump's tariffs to stay in effect for now. The order pauses a previous federal trade court ruling blocking Trump's tariffs while the appeals court weighs a longer stay sought by the Trump administration.
Shein is working towards a Hong Kong listing after the London IPO stalled, sources said. The fast fashion e-tailer aims to file a draft prospectus with Hong Kong's stock exchange in the weeks to come, after its proposed initial public offering in London failed to secure approval from Chinese regulators.
LVMH's deputy CEO said it has room to raise prices 2 to 3 percent. Stephane Bianchi said in a French parliament hearing that to offset tariffs, the conglomerate can lift prices of high-end products without hurting demand, but cannot raise prices for cognac or beauty products. Executives said they will continue to invest in China, despite dwindling demand.
Italy's Golden Goose ruled out an IPO this year, but predicted limited impact from tariffs. The luxury sneaker maker's CEO Silvio Campara said it still views a market listing favourably in the future and is open to merger and acquisition options. The company reported a 12 percent rise in net revenues and opened three new stores in the first quarter.
Foot Locker sales missed ahead of the Dick's Sporting Goods purchase. The sneaker retailer's sales slump continued in the latest quarter with comparable store sales having fallen 2.6 percent, lower than analysts had expected. Foot Locker declined to provide an annual forecast and conference call to discuss results amid its pending acquisition by Dick's.
Dick's Sporting Goods maintained its outlook ahead of the Foot Locker deal. The athletic apparel and equipment retailer maintained its annual sales and profit forecast, with comparable store sales expected to gain 1 to 3 percent this year. The fiscal outlook doesn't account for impact from its blockbuster Foot Locker acquisition.
Capri signalled selective price hikes on Michael Kors handbags to counter the tariff hit. The group expects total annual revenue between $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion, a sum which does not account for tariff rates or weakening consumer confidence.
Abercrombie shares surged as strong demand drove the first-quarter beat. Stock jumped 25 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday after the retailer beat first-quarter expectations and raised its forecasted annual sales growth to 3 to 6 percent when accounting for current tariffs.
Gap's quarterly sales beat on strong demand for Old Navy and namesake brands. The retail company maintained its fiscal sales forecast of 1 to 2 percent growth after comparable first-quarter sales rose 3 percent at Old Navy and 5 percent at Gap. Revenue lifted 2.2 percent to $3.46 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.42 billion.
Macy's cut its annual profit forecast amid tariff uncertainty. The department store operator now expects 2025 adjusted profit per share to be between $1.60 and $2, down from its previous target of between $2.05 and $2.25. Macy's beat first-quarter net revenue estimates with net sales of $4.6 billion and maintained its annual net sales forecast.
Hudson's Bay will terminate more than 8,300 workers by Sunday. Canada's oldest retailer will lay off 89 percent of its workforce by next week, when it will conclude its liquidation sale and shutter all stores. The layoffs follow rising unemployment rates in Canada, which hit 6.9 percent in April, as US tariffs hit the economy.
Temu-owner PDD Holdings missed quarterly revenue estimates. The Chinese e-commerce company suffered from weak consumer sentiment and global trade policies like the end of the de minimis duty loophole. Despite deep price cuts and government stimulus measures, PDD's year-on-year net income fell 47 percent to 14.74 billion yuan. US-listed shares fell 7 percent in premarket trading.
Kohl's posted better-than-expected sales as it looks for a new CEO. The department store operator saw $3 billion in quarterly revenue, in line with analyst estimates, and a 3.9 percent drop in comparable sales, slightly outpacing analyst and company expectations. The company maintained its annual forecast.
The EU warned Shein of fines in its consumer protection probe. The fast fashion giant has one month to respond to the findings and offer commitments to address the issues, and could also be targeted by the EU's Digital Services Act. Following the warning, Shein now plans to increase product safety testing, and announced it will spend $15 million on compliance initiatives this year.
Italy's fashion brands signed an accord to fight worker exploitation. The non-binding agreement with legal and political authorities and trade unions focusses on the creation of a database of brands' suppliers and their workforces.
THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTY (Shutterstock)
Ulta Beauty cut its sales outlook on slowing consumer demand. The beauty retailer raised its full-year outlook for sales and profit after first-quarter profit and comparable sales beat expectations. Shares rose 7.3 percent in after-market trading in New York.
Bath & Body Works forecast slight growth after its 2024 sales dip. The Ohio-based beauty and skincare retailer beat first-quarter profit estimates on steady demand for personal care products and limited exposure to import tariffs. First-quarter sales rose 3 percent year on year $1.42 billion, in line with expectations, while annual net sales and profit forecasts are unchanged.
PEOPLE
Nike's longtime design and innovation boss John Hoke announced plans to retire. Hoke will step down as chief innovation officer in October, with a successor yet to be named, in the latest executive shuffle under CEO Elliott Hill. Hoke, who started at Nike in 1992, previously served as chief design officer for 15 years.
The Estée Lauder Companies tapped Lisa Sequino to lead its makeup division. Sequino, a former ELC executive who left in 2022 to lead J.Lo Beauty and later Supergoop, will begin her newly created role as president of the makeup brand division on June 9.
Compiled by Jessica Kwon.