India's hold on Pakistan begins to hurt where it matters

Economic Times

4 hours ago

India put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, signed in 1960, in abeyance following the Pahalgam terrorist attack in April, arguing Pakistan violated the treaty through unrelenting cross-border terrorism. Months after the action, India's hold on Pakistan has begun to hurt which is evident from incendiary statements by several Pakistani leaders.
Speaking at a private dinner in Tampa, Florida, where he had gone to attend an American military function, a few days ago, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir threatened India that his country would target dams with missiles, as per media reports. Munir told members of the Pakistani diaspora, 'We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, phir 10 missile sey faarigh kar dengey [we will destroy it with 10 missiles].'
'The Indus river is not the Indians' family property. Humein missilon ki kami nahin hai, al-Hamdulillah [we have no shortage of missiles, Praise be to God],' he said. Munir also threatened India with nuclear strike.
After Munir's comments, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday warned that any attempt to block water flow into Pakistan would be a violation of the IWT and met with a 'decisive response.' Speaking at an event in Islamabad, Sharif declared, 'The enemy cannot snatch even a single drop of water from Pakistan. You threatened to stop our water—if you try, Pakistan will teach you a lesson you will never forget.'
Last month, former Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who is the chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party, warned India over its unilateral suspension of the IWT. Speaking during the budget session of the National Assembly, said, 'India has two options: share water fairly, or we will take it from all six rivers.'
Also Read | 'Enemy can't snatch even single drop of water': After Munir, Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif threatens India on Indus treaty
India rejects international court jurisdictionPakistan has welcomed an international court's ruling interpreting design criteria for new run-of-river hydropower projects on the Western Rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus), to be built by India, saying it vindicates its position on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which India put in abeyance after the Pahalgam attack. India, however, has never recognised the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which reportedly ruled that India must "let flow" the waters of the Western Rivers for Pakistan's unrestricted use. India has instead focused on the neutral expert mechanism."The specified exceptions for generation of hydro-electric plants must conform strictly to the requirements laid down in the treaty, rather than to what India might consider an 'ideal' or 'best practices' approach," Pakistan's foreign office said Monday.Following Monday's ruling, Pakistan reiterated its commitment to implementing IWT and urged India to resume functioning of the same. India maintains IWT will remain in abeyance until Pakistan takes action against cross-border terrorism.
Also Read | After Asim Munir's nuclear rant, Bilawal Bhutto threatens Pakistan could 'take back six rivers' from India
Why are Pak leaders threatening India?Possibly, Pakistan has realised India's suspension of the IWT is not going to be reverted, which poses dire medium- and long-term challenges to the country. Under normal IWT operations, India shared vital water-flow data and alerted Pakistan to seasonal variations and flood risks. Now, India has halted such data sharing, severely impairing Pakistan's ability to anticipate floods or droughts. India no longer needs to follow design and operational restrictions for projects on the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—meaning it can proceed unilaterally with dam construction and modifications. This includes reservoir flushing to clear sediment at projects like Kishanganga, potentially affecting downstream flow.Though short-term capability is limited due to India's existing infrastructure, long-term construction of dams and reservoirs could significantly alter water availability for Pakistan in dry months.Pakistan relies on Indus waters for 80–90% of its irrigated agriculture, which supports roughly 25% of its GDP and up to 37–45% of employment depending on the report.
Also Read | 'We'll show them what's next': After Indus dam, Pak Army Chief Asim Munir now fixes target on RIL Jamnagar refinery In the long term, India could ramp up dams, storage, and diversion projects along the western rivers, consolidating significant upstream control. Pakistan, with limited storage capacity, may suffer perennial water shortages, especially in non-monsoon seasons. Domestic instability in Pakistan could intensify—impacting food security, rural livelihoods, trade competitiveness, and energy sustainability.It's possible Pakistan has sensed India's long-term plans to restrict water flow and is alarmed at the prospect.An Indian environment ministry panel has given 'in-principle' approval for diversion of over 847 hectares of reserved forest and 'jungle-jhari' land for construction of the ambitious 1,856-MW Sawalkot hydroelectric project in Ramban district of Jammu & Kashmir, TOI reported last month. Certain key green provisions were set aside for the purpose, keeping in view national interests. Though the final approval will be subject to grant of environment clearance for the project by the UT govt, the move shows the intent to swiftly take up the dam's construction for leveraging Chenab river's potential following suspension of the IWT. The Sawalkot hydroelectric project (HEP) is a major hydropower initiative, intended to harness the potential of the Chenab — one of the western rivers along with Indus and Jhelum whose waters currently flow unchecked to Pakistan despite India's right to use it for non-consumptive purposes, including hydro-power generation.India is also set to revive the long-stalled Tulbul Navigation Project in Jammu & Kashmir, PTI has reported recently, based on information from sources. A detailed project report for Tulbul is being prepared and is expected to take about a year to complete. This move, which comes right after the IWT suspension, underscores a significant policy shift: leveraging water resources as a means of strategic assertion. The work was restarted in 2010, with the then irrigation minister of J&K, Taj Mohideen, stating that Article 9 of IWT permitted such projects meant for non-consumptive use. In 2012, unidentified terrorists lobbed a grenade towards a bund raised by the workers for the project.
Under the IWT, India was allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), while the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) were allocated to Pakistan, with limited rights for India. India is allowed to use water from the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like navigation, power generation and limited storage. The Tulbul Project aligns with these permissible uses. With the IWT in abeyance, there can't be any challenge to this project.
After the Uri Terror Attack in 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said "blood and water cannot flow together" during a high-level review meeting of the IWT. This was a clear signal that India might review or alter its commitment to the IWT in response to Pakistan's failure to curb cross-border terrorism. Nearly a decade later, Modi's indication has become a reality. India's revival of plans to build long-term projects on several rivers suggests it is not going to revert its decision. It also drives home the message in Pakistan that the suspension of the IWT was not a merely tactical move but a long-term strategic shift. Also, India's rejection of international court jurisdiction over IWT underlines this shift. That's what is bothering Pakistan's top leaders.