How the future of the Right is being shaped... over exquisite lunches at London's most exclusive clubs

Daily Mail​

a day ago

The future of Right-wing politics in Britain is being decided on the cigar terraces of Mayfair. As the opinion poll surge of Nigel Farage 's Reform UK shakes the foundations of the Conservatives, power-brokers from both parties are cutting deals and war-gaming defections on adjoining tables in the capital's most salubrious salons.
The Tories have been described as the most successful political party in the world, on the back of 200 years of near-electoral dominance. But if leader Kemi Badenoch is going to maintain that reputation until the next election, it will require a revival of Lazarus-like dimensions.
According to a YouGov poll last week, Mr Farage would win 271 seats if an election were held now – well ahead of Labour on 178. The Conservatives would trail the Liberal Democrats on a dismal rump of just 48 seats.
It has led to long, dark nights of the soul for Tory grandees and donors: do they stick with the Conservatives, even if they are sleepwalking to electoral doom? Do they try to form a pact with Mr Farage? Or do they just jump ship completely?
The result has been a series of lunches and dinners in ultra-exclusive clubs such as 5 Hertford Street and its sister institution Oswald's, both owned by entrepreneur Robin Birley.
Oswald's, which is frequented by the likes of the Prince of Wales, Tony Blair, Boris Johnson and the Beckhams, was the venue for a splashy £1 million fundraising event for Reform earlier this year.
And on a single day this month, the same lunch service at Oswald's boasted former prime minister David Cameron, his ex-chancellor George Osborne and Tory leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick all dining together, next to Mr Farage and his treasurer Nick Candy in deep conversation on a nearby table – and with former Tory Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has urged the two parties to form a pact, offering greetings from a third table.
In the same week, a short walk across Berkley Square at 5 Hertford Street, popular with Eurocrats and stars such as Hugh Grant, a single lunch sitting offered the spectacle of billionaire Michael Spencer, Lord Cameron's former treasurer, dining with Francis Maude, an ex-Tory chairman, under the watchful eyes of Mr Farage's inner circle, including Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore – the self-styled 'bad boys of Brexit' who helped fund Mr Farage's Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum – and Mr Farage's mysterious fixer, 'Posh' George Cottrell.
As the wine flowed – full-bodied red for the Tories, chablis for the Faragistes – it represented a neat microcosm of the shifting tectonic plates: Lord Maude – tipped to return to the chairman role – is understood to have been lobbying Lord Spencer for funds for the party, while the Faragistes were drawing up a list of Tory donors to target for defection.
At the centre of this venn diagram of plotting is Mr Jenrick, who is more open than Mrs Badenoch to cutting a deal with Reform – and is said to have received Lord Cameron's backing to succeed her as leader.
Meanwhile, at The In & Out private members' club, a more traditional Armed Forces venue situated at the other end of Piccadilly, allies of Mr Farage and Mr Jenrick have met for informal discussions about 'uniting the Right'. Conspirators have even floated the idea of Mr Jenrick acting as chancellor in a Farage administration, although both sides furiously deny any such plans.
Mr Jenrick has also lunched at 5 Hertford Street with Rupert Lowe, the Great Yarmouth MP who lost the Reform whip after a spectacular bust-up with Mr Farage.
Even many moderate Conservatives, facing the loss of their seats, are now considering a merger.
One member of the Leftish One Nation group said: 'A pact with Reform is inevitable now.'
The MP added: 'There should be a non-aggression pact where we agree to not stand in the five seats Reform already have, and we let Nigel take his pick of seats where he is coming second to Labour. And Reform would stand down in seats we are more likely to win.
'It would end up giving them the North to save the Home Counties.'
An insider said Tory leader Mrs Badenoch 'would not be able to do the deal' but added that the timing had to be right for her successor to do so.
The source said: 'At the moment there no point doing any type of deal because Reform is on a high. Labour has imploded too early – all the benefit is going to Reform. Kemi isn't nimble enough to capitalise on it.'
Mrs Badenoch is continuing to pursue a 'slow and steady' approach, and regularly speaks to Lord Maude. 'He tells her to be patient and give the public the chance to come around,' the source said.
Even Mrs Badenoch's most vociferous critics say a leadership challenge is unlikely in the near future. Says one: 'She's 99 per cent safe until May.
'No one will want to own the next disaster – and there are a number coming down the line.'