2025 March Madness betting recap: Florida winning was 'fantastic' for futures market
A week into April, the March Madness odds market finally settled up. Unfortunately, it was a rather unfulfilling finish, with the basketball literally bouncing on the floor as the clock ran out.
It would've been nice to see Houston at least get off a shot. A game-winning 3-pointer. A 2-pointer that tied it, sending the game to overtime. A miss that cements the outcome.
But alas, nothing, giving Florida a 65-63 victory and the national title.
Let's spin through a quick championship game recap, including oddsmakers' reactions, how the bettors did, and a look at 2025-26 March Madness title odds.
Agonizing Ending
As Monday's game tipped off, Florida closed as a 1-point favorite at most sportsbooks, including Caesars Sports. With 19 seconds remaining, the Gators led 65-63, and Houston had the ball.
But the Cougars never got off another shot on a discombobulated final possession. So Florida won and barely covered.
Caesars Sports, among others, was just fine with that result, not only due to the game outcome, but to how these two teams were bet in championship futures all season.
"Florida winning at the end was a fantastic result in the futures market. It was probably one of the top-five results that had a legitimate shot," Caesars head of basketball trading Rich Zanco said.
The Gators trailed 42-30 with 16:24 remaining but rallied to tie it at 48 with 7:54 left. It was nip-and-tuck from there.
"That was kind of Florida's M.O. at times during the Tournament: falling behind and clawing its way back into games," Zanco said.
The final score falling well short of the 141-point total helped bookmakers, as well. The public betting masses, per usual, were betting the Over. But neither team shot well all night.
The only way the Over was hitting was if the game went to overtime.
Which it could've, if Houston had just gotten off a shot in the waning seconds.
Could've Been Better
BetMGM Nevada, with its array of sportsbooks up and down the Las Vegas Strip, wanted a Houston victory on Monday night. But much like Caesars, both teams represented good title outcomes, particularly after Houston eliminated Duke in the Final Four.
The Blue Devils were the major liability. As BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton noted pregame on Monday.
"We win on both teams, but we win a lot more on a Houston championship."
A prescient Caesars customer would've won a lot more on Houston, too. Back in June, the bettor put $10,000 on the Cougars +2200 to win the title.
Those final few seconds had to be particularly agonizing for that customer, who came up three points short of winning $220,000.
Gators Gains
Last April, Florida could've been had at +6000 (60/1) or more to win the NCAA Tournament. In December, you still could've gotten the Gators at +5000.
By early March, Florida was among the March Madness favorites, with odds in the +900 range.
Bettors jumped on Florida at all those junctures. In fact, the largest reported bet on the Gators was one of the latest arrivals. In early March, a BetMGM customer put $100,000 on Florida +900 to win it all.
Monday night, that bettor pocketed $900,000 in profit, for a $1 million total payout.
During the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Caesars Sports took a $100,000 bet on Florida +340. So that bettor netted $340,000 (total payout $440,000) with the Gators' victory on Monday.
But it's not always about big bets and massive payouts. There's something to be said for bettors who recognized early on that Florida was a championship-caliber team.
One sharp bettor, who asked not to be identified, put a modest $220 on Florida +5000 in December. Monday night, that bettor cashed out for $11,000 in profit. That's tremendous ROI, far greater than that of the high-roller types who made those $100,000 bets.
Ditto for a Hard Rock Bet customer who got $250 down on Florida when the Gators were +6100. That wager netted a tidy profit of $15,250.
Barstool Bets
Dave Portnoy, owner of Barstool Sports, saw two of his futures parlays get off to good starts on Monday night on wagers he'd forgotten he made at DraftKings Sportsbook.
On March 11, Portnoy put $30,000 on a two-leg parlay of Florida to win the NCAA title and the Indiana Fever to win the WNBA crown. At odds of +3900, that ticket profits $1.170 million (total payout $1.2 million) if Caitlin Clark and the Fever can finish off what Florida started.
Then, on March 20, Portnoy wagered $25,000 on a three-leg futures parlay of Florida to win March Madness, the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title and the Fever to take the WNBA championship.
Odds on that ticket are +7700. So Portnoy is a third of the way to a $1.925 million win (total payout $1.95 million). DraftKings is already offering a $108,000 cashout on that wager, though Portnoy is surely going to let it ride.
The Celtics are currently DraftKings' No. 2 choice to win the NBA title at +215, just behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (+165). The Fever are the +400 fourth choice to win the WNBA Finals, behind only the New York Liberty (+220), Las Vegas Aces (+330) and Minnesota Lynx (+400).
Looking Ahead
No surprise, oddsmakers wasted no time putting up 2026 March Madness championship odds.
Duke is the +1000 favorite, surely hoping Player of the Year Cooper Flagg returns for his sophomore season. So a $100 Blue Devils bet right now would profit $1,000 (total payout $1,100) if Duke cuts down the nets.
After an agonizing end to the 2024-25 season, Houston is the +1200 second choice to win it all next season. UConn is the +1400 third choice, and perhaps surprisingly, BYU is the +1600 fourth choice. Purdue rounds out the top five teams at +1800.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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