Kamala Harris' decision kickstarts the 2028 Democratic presidential primary: 5 takeaways

Yahoo

02-08-2025

She's out, but is she really still in?
Kamala Harris ended months of speculation about running for California governor on July 30 when she announced she wasn't vying for the top spot in her home state. "For now," she said, her leadership and public service won't be in elected halls of power.
Only Harris knows how long that will be, but her decision leaves the door open for mounting a third White House bid in 2028 amid what's expected to be a jam-packed Democratic field but where the former 60-year-old vice president's diehard supporters appear ready to leap at as President Donald Trump's approval numbers dip.
"I remain proud AF to have voted for Kamala Harris," Ricky Davila, a Los Angeles-based musician, said in a July 30 post on X, responding to her decision. "It'll always break my heart that we were robbed (of) the opportunity to have a fantastic once in a lifetime president."
But the choice comes at a time when Democrats are trying to turn the page, particularly in terms of festering questions surrounding former President Joe Biden's unprecedented exit from last year's race.
Here are five takeaways on Harris' blockbuster decision, and what it could mean for Democrats going forward.
Harris declining California governor marks '28 kickoff
Several 2028 hopefuls on the Democratic side have already begun to put their stakes in the ground, whether by visiting early states, launching podcasts or drawing thousands at rallies across the country.
But Harris forgoing a California governor bid now means that a new round of speculation will begin as to whether she wants a third bite at the apple. That will change the calculus for some would-be contenders, but also left-leaning advocacy groups and importantly voters.
Longtime Harris allies were bullish, saying the 60-year-old Democrat's brand remains strong. They were blunt when asked about her future.
"She can do anything she wants to do, but she owes us nothing," CNN commentator Bakari Sellers told USA TODAY. "She's a talent and 2028 could be it. Or 2032. Whatever she decides. She's young."
A month before Harris' decision, however, an Emerson College survey was showing her support in a hypothetical 2028 contest beginning to slip as other names emerge.
The mock Democratic primary found 16% supporting former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, with Harris at 13% followed by current California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 12% and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both at 7% respectively. More voters were undecided at 23%, the June poll showed.
Returning to the national stage, but with Biden's baggage
There's no doubt Harris would be the most formidable contender and popular figure among the base if she returns to the national stage. She has the highest name ID and widest fundraising network by far of the potential candidates currently rumored.
But she also carries a decent portion of the baggage from the 2024 campaign, which collapsed after Biden's poor debate performance that reminded the nation about his age and acuity.
Harris' return risks reopening wounds and questions about her role and decision-making during the Biden administration just as the party looks to heal itself after bypassing on a public autopsy about last year's loss.
The former VP said in her July 30 statement that her immediate leadership will be dedicated to "helping elect Democrats across the nation." The first test of that appetite for Harris will come this fall as critical races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia -- two states she won in 2024 -- are gearing up for November.
Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., and Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in their respective states, endorsed Harris for president. It will be telling how eager and in what ways they and other Democrats, particularly in battleground states and swing districts, will be for Harris' return to the trail whether it is this year or the upcoming 2026 midterms.
"Excited about (Harris) hitting the road and traveling the country to help us flip the House and win back Congress," Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., said in a July 30 post on X. "Let's go!"
'107 Days': Harris debuts new book
Harris delivered another revealing piece of news after passing on the California governor's race. She is coming out with a book about her experience entitled "107 Days" - which was the length of her abbreviated campaign.
"Since leaving office, I've spent a lot of time reflecting on those days and with candor and reflection, I've written a behind-the-scenes account of that journey," Harris said in a July 31 post on X. "I believe there's value in sharing what I saw, what I learned, and what it will take to move forward."
How much it will reveal remains to be seen about last year's campaign, chiefly her knowledge about Biden's health and how it all went down when she received the party's nomination.
Simon & Schuster, the New York-based publisher behind the book, is advertising it as a "page-turning account" with "surprising and revealing insights" so expect political observers to pour over if it lives up to the hype, but the book gives Harris a chance to go back on the road and keep her profile high.
Don't expect 2028 hopefuls to back down amid rising progressive populism
If Harris ends up running for a third time, don't expect other rumored candidates to simply walk away and allow for another coronation.
Democrats have been engaged in a big debate about their party's future for much of this year, including sharp criticisms of their leadership in Congress around how to effectively challenge Trump.
There also is a rising populism on the left, emboldened by Zohran Mamdani's win in the New York City Democratic primary in June. Those within the activist left especially are pointing to a shift, especially around issues that Harris ducked during the 2024 campaign such as the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
A poll released July 29 by Data for Progress, for instance, found 78% of NYC Democratic voters said Israel is committing genocide in the region, and that more are likely to side with the Palestinians.
"The dam has broken," Margaret DeReus, executive director of the Institute for Middle East Understanding, which commissioned the survey, said in a statement. "As the Democratic Party considers its future after November's loss, and as poll after poll shows the party's approval to be at historic lows, Zohran Mamdani's ability to energize new voters with his bold platform for Palestinian rights should be a wake-up call."
If Harris does run again, it also would create a bit of an awkward scenario where she would be jockeying against some of the same people her failed campaign vetted to be her running mate, including Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was on the 2024 ticket but has spoken out about last year's campaign.
"We shouldn't have been playing this thing so safe," Walz told Politico in March.
California governor's race is now wide open
Now that Harris is out, the California governor's race becomes a massive derby among roughly a dozen notable contenders who have already expressed an intention to join the 2026 primary battle.
Among the names are Xavier Becerra, a former health secretary under Biden; Antonio Villaraigosa, a former L.A. mayor; current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who has been endorsed by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi; Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, an outspoken Trump supporter; and former Rep. Katie Porter, a staunch progressive who previously ran for Senate and who many believe to be in the best position to benefit from Harris' exit.
A University of California, Irvine poll released July 2 showed Harris at 24% with no other would-be contenders receiving double-digit support. Remember in California, candidates sprint in a primary where the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election in a runoff.
California, which holds the world's fourth largest economy, is thought of as a safe blue state by most forecasters but it has been at the forefront of Trump's immigration crackdown, which has been marked by violent clashes between law enforcement and left-leaning demonstrators.
It also has been in the news around other issues, such as homelessness and wildfires, and the UCI survey found that by a 2-to-1 margin, most Californians think their state is on the wrong track.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kamala Harris stirs Democrats and the 2028 election pot: 5 takeaways